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Diplomats studying Pakistan's threat to hive off nuclear technology if sanctions bite

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

Pakistan's recent threat, that if pushed to the brink by sanctions and eventual bankruptcy, it would share its recently-acquired technology to make nuclear bombs with Islamic countries to make money, is being scrutinised by the diplomatic community in New Delhi.

According to senior diplomats, Pakistan's nuclear explosion has brought out two facts very clearly. First, Pakistan's indigenous nuclear programme is of limited capability. Second, it is solely dependent on Chinese material and technological assistance. The diplomats pointed out that the recent US intelligence leaks about missile parts being shipped from China to Pakistan indicate that even Islamabad's missile programme is dependent on Chinese largesse. Therefore, Pakistan at best could be called a "proxy nuclear power."

This assessment appears to be shared by South Block officials. Senior officials at the ministry of external affairs said Pakistan's nuclear tests were basically meant to catch up with India in nuclear technology. They said that initially, Pakistan thought of exploding a nuclear device on May 18,19. However, the Pakistani scientists failed to activate the trigger mechanism supplied by China properly. Subsequently, Chinese scientists were air-dashed to Islamabad to reset the fuse properly and the device exploded.

The officials aver that Pakistan's claim of five tests followed by another one is not correct. It conducted only one test at a time on two days (May 28 and 30). The four high-rising domes spotted by satellites are reported to be dummies to convey the impression that Islamabad too conducted five nuclear tests like India. The initial confusion about the number of devices tested between the Pakistan official statement and Nawaz Sharief's statement is attributed to the number of dummies that were set up, it was pointed out.

The officials said Pakistan's transformation from a clandestine nuclear power to a proxy nuclear power, has landed it in an economic mess. With economic sanctions imposed by the US, however mild they may be, Pakistan is finding it difficult to cope. With the precarious balance of payment and the near crash in its stock markets, Pakistan decided to use its newly acquired proxy nuclear power status to wriggle out of the economic mess by resorting to nuclear blackmail. It was pointed out that the noted Pakistani economist Mahbub ul-Haq's statement, that in desperation a poor country like Pakistan may do anything, is a subtle hint to the G-8 countries. The officials pointed out that one need not be surprised in the coming months if there is a flurry of activity between Iranian scientists and their Pakistani counterparts.

According to the officials, how far this proxy nuclear power can indulge in nuclear blackmail, is being scrutinised closely by New Delhi's diplomatic community. One opinion says since the Chinese call the shots as far as Pakistan's nuclear programme is concerned, if President Clinton applies pressure on Chinese President Jiang Zemin, it could be capped and rolled back instantaneously.

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