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AIADMK will not force 'disastrous consequences' for the time-being

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The All India Anna DMK, a partner in the Vajpayee government at the Centre, is likely to go slow on its threat of "disastrous consequences" despite the Centre obtaining a three-week adjournment in the Cauvery waters case in the Supreme Court on Tuesday.

The decision follows a telephonic talk the prime minister reportedly had with AIADMK chief Jayalalitha in the morning, before the attorney-general informed the court about the government's decision.

"We will wait and watch, possibly until the next hearing of the case," said a close Jayalalitha aide.

"Maybe we will withdraw our ministers if nothing comes of it at the next hearing, and continue to support the government from outside," he added, conceding that this could be politically better for the AIADMK than its earlier demand for the dismissal of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government.

For his part, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi has given the Centre time till the next hearing of the case, before taking a decision.

Though the day was pregnant with possibilities, it was not without its share of lighter moments, again on the AIADMK front. Scores of policemen descended on Jayalalitha's Poes Garden home around noon. They had gathered there following rumours of Jayalalitha going on an indefinite fast on the Cauvery issue as she did in 1993 when she was chief minister. However, they departed after being told that nothing of the kind was in the offing.

Though some sources do not rule out the possibility of the AIADMK using the Cauvery waters row to pull down the Vajpayee government and trying to install a Congress-led regime at the Centre, others beg to differ. Says one of them: "Though the Congress may be better disposed to dismissing the DMK government, which is the 'real demand' of the AIADMK, even they cannot offer a peaceful solution to the Cauvery waters issue."

In this context, these sources refer to the final report of the Jain Commission report, 'select portions' of which have been leaked to the press. Says this source: "True, the Jain Commission has asked why the CBI-SIT did not question Karunanidhi, but what has not been published is the report asking why Jayalalitha or Subramanian Swamy among others, have not been questioned too."

That being the case, if someone wanted to use the final report of the Jain Commission to 'disrupt' the DMK government, "they will stand as much exposed as the Sitaram Kesri-led Congress when the probe panel's interim report was made known last year."

According to these sources, the said reference to Jayalalitha and others appears in paragraph 361 in Chapter 9 of volume 5 in the final report: "The SIT also did not interrogate Shri Chandra Shekhar, T N Seshan, Dr Swamy, Ms Jayalalitha and Shri P V Narasimha Rao.' And it is in the subsequent paragraph, it is said, the reference to Karunanidhi appears, though the earlier paragraph has not been publicised.

Another view is also gaining ground in AIADMK circles. That it would be better to let DMK ministers commit more mistakes and catch them at it. Already, Electricity and Health Minister 'Arcot' N Veeraswamy, a close aide of Karunanidhi, is under a court-ordered police probe into the affairs of his businessman-brother N Devarajan -- apart from an income-tax enquiry. Veerasamy today offered to quit if he was found guilty.

While arguing that such 'exposures' will help the AIADMK cause, party sources have taken exception to the prime minister's office and the BJP leadership mostly keeping Law Minister M Thambidurai out of the Cauvery case.

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