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Brittle alliances inject uncertainty into TN politics

Is the political alliance led by All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu heading for a split over the demand for the dismissal of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government in the state?

While both the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Pattali Makkal Katchi have sworn by the combine, their public pronouncements not to align with the Congress are likely to make Jayalalitha review her attitude towards the Bharatiya Janata Party.

''We have to assess the mood of our allies before taking a decision on the BJP,'' said an AIADMK source. He added that the AIADMK has all but given up on the MDMK. ''We cannot afford to ignore the PMK as yet, particularly if we have to face the assembly elections.''

The MDMK has been virulently opposing the use of Article 356 in any state. While its leader Vaiko attended the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition's coordination committee meeting in Delhi on Saturday, PMK founder S Ramadoss did not. He has also altered his position, from the demand for Karunanidhi's resignation to one of dismissal of DMK government.

''But that is where our uniformity of views with the AIADMK ends,'' clarified a PMK leader. "We sympathise with the AIADMK cause, and do not want that party to feel isolated. We also want to be aligned with the AIADMK if assembly elections are to be held now."

But the PMK will not desert the BJP, nor would it support the Congress in forming an alternative government at the Centre, he adds, quoting Ramadoss' public statement at his Tindivanam stronghold last Saturday.

Ramadoss is also known to have told Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee as much, while expressing his inability to attend the coordination committee meeting on phone on Friday.

The PMK is aware that the party's pan-Tamil image does not go down well with the Congress leadership.

The AIADMK leader said that even an alliance with the Congress without the Tamil Maanila Congress returning to the parent organisation, could not help his party. "It remains a question, as to how many of the traditional Congress voters Sonia Gandhi can bring around to her side, particularly if the party is to align with the AIADMK," he added.

It is this realisation that is keeping Jayalalitha waiting without making her next political move. She has also not been getting the favourable signs she had been promised from the Congress.

The BJP leaders have been steadfast in claiming that their government would survive any withdrawal of support by the AIADMK. "Given the Congress apathy in toppling the Vajpayee government, we are not sure whether the BJP claims are only an empty brag," said the AIADMK leader.

That the AIADMK is closer to the PMK than the MDMK is obvious. Even the AIADMK executive committee meeting in Madras last month was told that they could count out the three MDMK members of the Lok Sabha from the total of 27 in their combined kitty. While standing by the BJP, on Article 356 and otherwise, the MDMK is not unaware of a possible patch-up between the BJP and the AIADMK.

"That could land us in the lurch," conceded an MDMK spokesman, referring to Vaiko's public statements swearing by the combine, and also his pooh-poohing all rumours of a meeting he reportedly had with Murasoli Maran, his arch-rival and ideologue of the ruling DMK. "There was no such meeting, it was a mischief played by those who want to strain the MDMK-AIADMK relations, and sow seeds of suspicion," said the MDMK leader.

For his part, BJP vice-president Jana Krishnamurthy, who worked out the alliance with the AIADMK in December, has denied any moves for a tie-up with the DMK. "We will not have any tie-up with the DMK even if the AIADMK withdraws support to the Vajpayee government," he told the media in Calcutta on Sunday.

"The statement is meant to mollify the AIADMK's hurt, and deny Jayalalitha's charge of a BJP-DMK tie-up," said a BJP leader. "It would also make it that much difficult for the AIADMK to negotiate with the Congress while continuing in the BJP alliance."

He also denied the charge that the BJP was trying to split the AIADMK, which has 18 members in the Lok Sabha. "If the DMK attempts anything, we cannot be held responsible." The last word has not been heard on the split, it seems.

For the present, the AIADMK can count only on the support of Janata Party president Dr Subramanian Swamy, MP, who is a persona non grata for the BJP. Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress leader Vazhapadi K Ramamurthy may go the Congress way.

Jayalalitha's stress is on the dismissal of the DMK government, whereas Swamy's first target is the BJP. Their combined goals will be served only if the BJP government is toppled and a successor regime at the Centre dismisses the DMK government," says the AIADMK leader.

"How we work our way from here will thus matter, as we are not too keen on toppling the Vajpayee regime," he added, referring to the reprieve Jayalalitha has received in her criminal cases, thanks to the elevation and transfer of a Madras high court judge by the Union government.

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