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ELECTIONS '96

Doordarshan Exit Poll points to hung House despite impressive BJP gains

An Exit Poll telecast by Doordarshan late on Saturday evening has virtually confirmed the popular perception that the nation is in for a hung Lok Sabha once again.

As per the exit poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party can be expected to win 244 seats, an impressive gain of 59 seats from its previous level in the Lok Sabha. However, the party needs 273 seats to achieve a majority.

The exit poll puts to rest all speculation that Sonia Gandhi's decision to campaign for the Congress would help the party make substantial gain, perhaps even emerge as the single largest party. The Congress is expected to lose three seats, reaching a final figure of 140 seats.

The BJP makes its gain at the expense of the United Front. The Front is expected to win only 118 seats, which means a substantial loss of 53 seats. Others (Independents and regional parties) lose three seats to have a final tally of 38 seats.

According to the exit poll, in the politically sensitive state of Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to bag 58 seats followed by the Samajwadi Party with 17, the Bahujan Samaj Party five, Congress three and others two. The BJP alone will gain in the state, the poll analysts claim.

In Andhra Pradesh the exit poll projects the Congress as the leader with a tally of 22 seats followed by Telugu Desam and allies 15, and the BJP bagging five seats. Andhra Pradesh has 42 Lok Sabha seats.

In Tamil Nadu the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Tamil Maanila Congress combine is all set to sweep the polls with 35 out of 39 seats. The AIADMK and its ally the BJP are likely to get four seats. The Congress, which went on its own for the first time, would draw a blank, according to the exit poll telecast after the polling in 131 constituencies closed at 5 pm in what was virtually the final round of polling in the current Lok Sabha election.

In Rajasthan, contrary to pre-poll expectations the BJP is expected to secure 15 seats and the Congress has to contend with 10 seats. The state has 25 Lok Sabha seats.

In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, the national capital of Delhi and Jammu and Kashmir, which account for 39 seats, the BJP is expected to get 17, Congress 13, United Front four and others five.

In Assam the ruling Asom Gana Parishad is expected to suffer a serious setback, bagging only two of the total 14 seats. The Congress is expected to gain eight seats. The BJP also is reported to have done well and is likely to bag four seats.

The exit poll is based on samples from as many as 26,000 voters from 1,450 booths spread over 120 Lok Sabha constituencies.

The exit poll has forecast 12 seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front and eight for the CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala. The BJP is not likely to open its account in the state which has 20 Lok Sabha seats.

In Karnataka the BJP-Lok Shakti combine is likely to be the major gainer, securing 17 out of the total 28 seats in the state. The Congress is expected to improve its position to nine seats while the Janata Dal is expected to suffer a severe drubbing, getting just two seats. The JD had 16 seats in the last Lok Sabha.

The exit poll was conducted by psephologist G V L Narasimha Rao. The programme was anchored by media personalities Nalini Singh and Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar. Rao says the exit poll has an accuracy of 95 per cent at the national level and 90 per cent at the state level.

Elections '98

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