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February 12, 1998

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Vidarbha is the true test of Sena-BJP's popularity in Maharashtra

The havoc wrought on crops by unseasonal rains and hailstorms in November -December may cast its shadow over the electoral fortunes of the ruling Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance in Maharashtra's backward Vidarbha region, which will elect 11 members to the Lok Sabha on February 22.

The government's alleged failure to provide adequate succour to the suffering farmers may serve as a litmus test for the ruling alliance which was preferred by this region over its traditional favourite, the Congress, for the first time since Independence, in the last election.

Until 1996, Vidarbha was regarded as a Congress bastion and stood by the party through thick and thin. It had returned Congress candidates from all 11 constituencies even during the Janata Party sweep in 1977 -- but in 1996 the region elected the Sena-BJP combine from all but two seats.

The Congress is exploiting the calamity to the hilt to create an anti-establishment wave and swing the tide in its favour.

Independent political observers do not rule out an anti- establishment wave overtaking the region as, according to them, government relief had not been 'commensurate' with the 'very heavy' damages farmers have suffered. The farming community outnumbers the rest of the population in this predominantly agrarian region comprising the nine districts of Akola, Amravati, Bhandara, Buldhana, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Nagpur, Wardha and Yavatmal. It is also one of the major cotton growing areas of the country.

Despite repeated claims by Chief Minister Manohar Joshi and Deputy Chief Minister Gopinath Mundhe that farmers were satisfied with the Rs 2,100 price given per quintal for cotton, the farmers's ire against the government is discernible from the protests held regularly in the countryside to press for 'adequate' relief to tide over the crisis faced by them on account of the calamity. The region had been lashed by unseasonal rains and hailstorms since October and the calamity was repeated early this month as well, destroying crops of paddy, wheat, cotton and orange.

Removal of the developmental backlog is another issue dogging the region. This has often manifested itself in the demand for a separate state. Though the issue has remained dormant in recent decades, it continues to be stoked by the major political parties on the eve of every election, to woo the voters.

This time round also the Congress and the BJP have reiterated their support to the demand. However, the BJP has skirted the issue in the joint manifesto it released along with the Shiv Sena on Wednesday, as the latter is opposed to bifurcating the state.

The Congress, which claims credit for securing a separate statutory development board for the region, has revived the promise of creating a separate Vidarbha state if it came to power, alleging that the process of development had slowed down during the three-year tenure of the Sena-BJP government. But this allegation is vociferously refuted by the chief minister and Sena chief Bal Thackeray, who say their government had made additional financial allocations, over and above the budgetary provision for the purpose.

The region will witness multi-cornered contests in all the 11 constituencies -- Akola, Amravati, Bhandara, Buldhana, Chandrapur, Chimur, Nagpur, Ramtek, Wardha, Washim and Yavatmal. The Congress is contesting eight seats, leaving three to its electoral ally -- the Republican Party of India. The seats being contested by the RPI are Akola, Amravati and Chimur. The BJP has fielded its candidates from Akola, Bhandara, Chandrapur, Chimur, Nagpur, Wardha and Yavatmal, while the Shiv Sena is contesting from Amravati, Buldhana, Ramtek and Washim.

Prominent among the Congress candidates in the run are former chief minister Sudhakar Naik, former Union minister Vilas Muttemwar and Mukul Wasnik. Datta Meghe (Ramtek) and Praful Patel (Bhandara) were the only two Congress winners in the last election. Meghe, who was elected from Ramtek, has this time shifted to Wardha and is contesting against sitting BJP member Vijay Mude.

Businessman Patel is seeking re-election from Bhandara and is taking on fellow businessman Narayan Saraf, a new face fielded by the BJP.

Except Nagpur, the BJP has renominated all its five winners in the last election. The party has fielded senior leader, businessman Ramesh Mantri in Nagpur after its MP Banwarilal Purohit quit the party and joined the Congress. Purohit, who owns the English daily The Hitvada, has decided not to contest and instead campaign for the Congress.

In the last election the BJP won six out of the seven seats it contested in the region, while the Sena won three out of the four seats it contested.

The Sena has changed its candidate in Ramtek, the seat it lost to Meghe, to Ashok Gujar, an MLA who is pitted against Congress newcomer Chitralekhadeve Bhosale, widow of former Lok Sabha member Tejsinghrao Bhosale, who had won the seat in 1991. Bhosale represents the former princely family of Bhoslas of Nagpur. The Sena candidate, Prakash Jadhav, had lost to Meghe by 25,722 votes, and hopes to make up this time round.

The BJP suffered its only defeat in the region when its candidate Ramgopal Aswale in Bhandara was defeated by Praful Patel by 6,963 votes. Patel polled 259,630 votes while Aswale secured 252,667 votes, indicating a tough fight in Bhandara once again. The BJP has, however, replaced Aswale with a new candidate, Narayan Saraf.

In only two constituencies -- Chimur and Nagpur -- did the BJP winners secure a victory margin of more than 100,000 votes. Purohit defeated Congress candidate Kunda Vijaykar by 121,502 votes. In yet another contest, BJP candidate Namdeo Divate defeated Muttemwar by 112,335 votes. Muttemwar has shifted to Nagpur this time. He had won the Chimur seat in 1980, 1984 and 1991.

The BJP's victory margin in other constituencies were Chandrapur (96,131), Wardha (21,975) where its candidate Mude defeated former Union minister Vasant Sathe, Yavatmal (38,562) where its renominated candidate Rajabhau Thakare defeated former Union minister Ghulam Nabi Azad.

The Sena's victory margin was 69,431 in Buldhana, 58,631 in Amravati and 16,689 in Washim where its candidate Pundalikrao Gavali defeated former chief minister Sudhakar Naik. The Sena has, in view of Naik's formidable position, replaced Gavali in the present election with social worker and eye specialist Dr Gyaneshwar Shewale from Washim.The Sena has retained its winners from Buldhana and Amravati in the last election, Anandrao Adsul and Anant Gude respectively.

The Congress's ally, Republican Party of India, has fielded its president R S Gavai in Amravati against Gude. In 1996 Gavai lost by 58,631 votes in a triangular contest. He emerged as runner-up, while the Congress, which did not have alliance with RPI then, was relegated to the third place. Prakash Ambedkar is the other alliance candidate, who is trying his luck for the fourth time from Akola, and he had earlier unsuccessfully contested from this constituency in 1984, 1989, 1991 and 1996.

The third Congress-RPI alliance candidate is Jogendra Kawade, a senior leader of the RPI who is contesting from Chimur against BJP MP Namdeo Divate. A keen contest is likely in all these three constituencies as the Congress-RPI expects their alliance would consolidate Dalit votes and prevent division of non-Sena and non-BJP votes.

Poll-watchers too are of the opinion that the Congress's alliance with the RPI would consolidate the Dalit and other non- BJP and non-Shiv Sena votes and give the party an edge over the Sena-BJP in the region. However, they also do not rule out a split in non-Dalit votes of the Congress due to its alliance with the RPI, particularly in Akola, Amravati and Chimur.

The region has 103 candidates in the fray for the 11 seats, the largest number, 14, being in Bhandara, followed by Chimur (12), Chandrapur (11), while Wardha and Yavatmal have 10 candidates each. Nagpur, which had the distinction of having 60 candidates in the fray in 1996, has only eight candidates in the fray this time. The six-cornered fight in Amravati will be the smallest in the region. Buldhana and Washim will witness an eight-cornered contest, while it will be nine-cornered in Akola.

Chitralekha and Gujar are facing seven-cornered contests in Ramtek.

The Nagpur Lok Sabha constituency has the highest number of 15,23,248 voters, followed by the Naxal-infested Chandrapur (12,10,626), Amravati (11,22,469) and Akola (11,19,908)

The caste factor will be very much in the fore in the election, going by the selection of candidates. The Kunbi, Teli and Dalits will play a major role and the voters of these communities will play a decisive role. Unsuccessful aspirants from different parties have sprung up as Independents, which may erode the votes of the official candidates.

The predominant Halba Koshti (weaver) community will hold the balance in Nagpur where the alliance's failure to ensure adequate representation for them has emerged as a major issue. The Halba Koshti community is known for the nine-yard handloom saris of Vidarbha. The region also has a sizeable population of Dalits and Muslims.

Vidarbha returned 33 -- BJP (22), Sena (11) -- of the ruling alliance's candidates from the region's 66 seats in the 1995 assembly election. The Congress won 17 seats while Independents took 14 and the Janata Dal (2). The Congress rout was mainly due to the large-scale rebellion in the party over distribution of tickets.

The campaign has hotted up. Sonia Gandhi will address meetings at Buldhana, Nagpur and Tumsar while Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L K Advani will do so before and after the Congress star campaigner's visit.

Elections '98

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