Vidarbha is the true test of Sena-BJP's popularity in Maharashtra
The havoc wrought on crops by unseasonal rains and hailstorms in November -December
may cast its shadow over the electoral fortunes of the ruling Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party
alliance in Maharashtra's backward Vidarbha region, which
will elect 11 members to the Lok Sabha on February 22.
The government's alleged failure to provide adequate succour
to the suffering farmers may serve as a litmus test for
the ruling alliance which was preferred by this region over its
traditional favourite, the Congress, for the first time
since Independence, in the last election.
Until 1996, Vidarbha was regarded as a Congress bastion
and stood by the party through thick and thin.
It had returned Congress candidates from all 11
constituencies even during the Janata Party sweep
in 1977 -- but in 1996 the region elected the Sena-BJP combine from all but two seats.
The Congress is exploiting the calamity to the hilt
to create an anti-establishment wave and swing the tide in its
favour.
Independent political observers do not rule out an anti-
establishment wave overtaking the region as, according to them,
government relief had not been 'commensurate' with the
'very heavy' damages farmers have suffered. The farming
community outnumbers the rest of the population in this
predominantly agrarian region comprising the nine districts of
Akola, Amravati, Bhandara, Buldhana, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Nagpur,
Wardha and Yavatmal. It is also one of the major cotton
growing areas of the country.
Despite repeated claims by Chief Minister Manohar Joshi and
Deputy Chief Minister Gopinath Mundhe that farmers were satisfied with the Rs 2,100
price given per quintal for cotton, the farmers's ire against the government is discernible from the protests held regularly in the countryside to press
for 'adequate' relief to tide over the crisis faced
by them on account of the calamity. The region had been lashed by
unseasonal rains and hailstorms since October and the calamity
was repeated early this month as well, destroying
crops of paddy, wheat, cotton and orange.
Removal of the developmental backlog is another issue dogging the
region. This has often manifested itself in the demand for a separate
state. Though the issue has remained dormant in recent decades, it continues to
be stoked by the major political parties on the eve of every
election, to woo the voters.
This time round also the Congress and the BJP have reiterated
their support to the demand. However, the BJP has skirted the
issue in the joint manifesto it released along with the
Shiv Sena on Wednesday, as the latter is opposed to
bifurcating the state.
The Congress, which claims credit for securing a separate
statutory development board for the region, has revived the
promise of creating a separate Vidarbha state if it came to
power, alleging that the process of development had
slowed down during the three-year tenure of the Sena-BJP
government. But this allegation is vociferously refuted by the
chief minister and Sena chief Bal Thackeray, who say their
government had made additional financial allocations, over and
above the budgetary provision for the purpose.
The region will witness multi-cornered contests in all the 11
constituencies -- Akola, Amravati, Bhandara, Buldhana, Chandrapur, Chimur, Nagpur, Ramtek, Wardha, Washim and Yavatmal.
The Congress is contesting eight seats, leaving three
to its electoral ally -- the Republican Party of India.
The seats being contested by the RPI are Akola, Amravati and Chimur.
The BJP has fielded its
candidates from Akola, Bhandara, Chandrapur, Chimur, Nagpur, Wardha
and Yavatmal, while the Shiv Sena is contesting from Amravati, Buldhana,
Ramtek and Washim.
Prominent among the Congress candidates in the run are former chief
minister Sudhakar Naik, former Union minister Vilas Muttemwar
and Mukul Wasnik. Datta Meghe (Ramtek) and Praful Patel
(Bhandara) were the only two Congress winners in the last
election. Meghe, who was elected from Ramtek, has this time shifted to Wardha and is contesting against sitting BJP member Vijay Mude.
Businessman Patel is seeking re-election from Bhandara and is
taking on fellow businessman Narayan Saraf, a new face
fielded by the BJP.
Except Nagpur, the BJP has renominated all its five winners
in the last election. The party has fielded
senior leader, businessman Ramesh Mantri in Nagpur after
its MP Banwarilal Purohit quit the party and joined the Congress. Purohit, who owns the
English daily The Hitvada, has decided not to
contest and instead campaign for the Congress.
In the last election
the BJP won six out of the seven seats it contested in the region,
while the Sena won three out of the four seats it contested.
The Sena has changed its candidate in Ramtek, the seat it lost to
Meghe, to Ashok Gujar, an MLA who is
pitted against Congress newcomer Chitralekhadeve Bhosale,
widow of former Lok Sabha member Tejsinghrao Bhosale, who had won
the seat in 1991. Bhosale represents the former
princely family of Bhoslas of Nagpur. The Sena candidate, Prakash
Jadhav, had lost to Meghe by 25,722 votes, and hopes to make up this time round.
The BJP suffered its only defeat in the region when its candidate Ramgopal Aswale
in Bhandara was defeated by Praful Patel by 6,963 votes. Patel polled
259,630 votes while Aswale secured 252,667 votes, indicating a tough fight in
Bhandara once again. The BJP has, however, replaced Aswale with a new
candidate, Narayan Saraf.
In only two constituencies -- Chimur and Nagpur -- did the BJP winners
secure a victory margin of more than 100,000 votes. Purohit defeated Congress candidate Kunda Vijaykar
by 121,502 votes. In yet another contest, BJP candidate Namdeo
Divate defeated Muttemwar by 112,335 votes.
Muttemwar has shifted to Nagpur this time.
He had won the Chimur seat in 1980, 1984 and 1991.
The BJP's victory margin in other constituencies were Chandrapur
(96,131), Wardha (21,975) where its candidate Mude defeated former
Union minister Vasant Sathe, Yavatmal (38,562) where its renominated
candidate Rajabhau Thakare defeated former Union minister Ghulam
Nabi Azad.
The Sena's victory margin was 69,431 in Buldhana, 58,631 in Amravati
and 16,689 in Washim where its candidate Pundalikrao Gavali
defeated former chief minister Sudhakar Naik. The Sena has, in
view of Naik's formidable position, replaced Gavali in
the present election with social
worker and eye specialist Dr Gyaneshwar Shewale from Washim.The
Sena has retained its winners from Buldhana and Amravati in the last election,
Anandrao Adsul and Anant
Gude respectively.
The Congress's ally, Republican Party of India, has fielded its
president R S Gavai in Amravati against Gude. In 1996 Gavai lost by 58,631 votes in a triangular contest. He emerged as
runner-up, while the Congress, which did not have alliance with RPI
then, was relegated to the third place. Prakash Ambedkar is the
other alliance candidate, who is trying his luck for the fourth time
from Akola, and he had earlier unsuccessfully contested from this
constituency in 1984, 1989, 1991 and 1996.
The third Congress-RPI
alliance candidate is Jogendra Kawade, a senior leader of the RPI
who is contesting from Chimur against BJP MP Namdeo Divate. A keen contest is likely in all these three
constituencies as the Congress-RPI expects their alliance would
consolidate Dalit votes and prevent division of non-Sena and
non-BJP votes.
Poll-watchers too are of the opinion that the Congress's
alliance with the RPI would consolidate the Dalit and other non-
BJP and non-Shiv Sena votes and give the party an edge over the
Sena-BJP in the region. However, they also do not
rule out a split in non-Dalit votes of the Congress due to its
alliance with the RPI, particularly in Akola, Amravati and Chimur.
The region has 103 candidates in the fray for the 11 seats,
the largest number, 14, being in Bhandara,
followed by Chimur (12), Chandrapur (11), while
Wardha and Yavatmal have 10 candidates each. Nagpur, which had
the distinction of having 60 candidates in the fray in 1996, has
only eight candidates in the fray this time. The six-cornered
fight in Amravati will be the smallest in the region.
Buldhana and Washim will witness an eight-cornered contest, while it will be nine-cornered in Akola.
Chitralekha and Gujar are facing seven-cornered contests in
Ramtek.
The Nagpur Lok Sabha constituency has the highest number of 15,23,248
voters, followed by the Naxal-infested Chandrapur (12,10,626),
Amravati (11,22,469) and Akola (11,19,908)
The caste factor will be very much in the fore in the election,
going by the selection of candidates. The Kunbi,
Teli and Dalits will play a major role and the
voters of these communities will play a decisive role.
Unsuccessful aspirants from different parties
have sprung up as
Independents, which may erode the votes of the official candidates.
The predominant Halba Koshti (weaver) community
will hold the balance in Nagpur where the alliance's failure to
ensure adequate representation for them has emerged as a major issue.
The Halba Koshti community is known for the nine-yard handloom
saris of Vidarbha. The region also has a sizeable population of
Dalits and Muslims.
Vidarbha returned 33 -- BJP (22), Sena (11) -- of the ruling alliance's candidates from the region's 66 seats in the 1995 assembly election. The Congress won 17 seats while
Independents took 14 and the Janata Dal (2).
The Congress rout was mainly due to the large-scale rebellion
in the party over distribution of tickets.
The campaign has hotted up. Sonia Gandhi will address meetings at Buldhana, Nagpur and Tumsar while Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L K Advani will do so
before and after the Congress star campaigner's visit.
Elections '98
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