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February 7, 1998
NEWS
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Arun Nehru
'I cannot see the BJP and allies touching 270 seats'Marginal swings can effect major changes. The arithmetic of numbers is never easy in politics, and much depends on the ground reality after the votes have been counted. The past month has seen many principled somersaults on moral, ethical issues and all leaders and parties have chosen to abandon the traditional fig leaf; clearly the battle for political power and the spoils of victory override all other considerations. There are few rights and wrongs in any situation and all depends on which side you are on and where your personal interests are served best! The charts are self-explanatory, and over the previous week I have made changes in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Goa and J&K in favour of the BJP and Maharashtra in favour of the Congress. The changes do not dramatically change the situation, and unless there is a total sweep in favour of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar I cannot see the BJP and allies touching 270 seats. The crucial issue here is whether Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Yadav will go into extinction like the Janata Dal, and this currently seems unlikely. The caste factor and the Mandal syndrome is deeply entrenched. The 'beauty and the beast syndrome' is relevant in the days of the electronic media, and the fact remains that Sitaram Kesri was no match for Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the initial exodus from the Congress created a illusion of it splitting, and the BJP, as has happened in the past, assumed victory before the process had even started. The process was abruptly halted by the entry of Sonia Gandhi, and the Congress looking for a crowd puller consolidated and the feeling of gloom was gone. All this may have little to do with votes but the psychological battle is important and round one goes to the Congress. Personal attacks are always hollow and the BJP attacking Sonia Gandhi and dynastic politics only help consolidate the Congress. Political responses require maturity, and the fact that every vendetta fails and has failed over the past 20 years is a lesson most people forget -- political justice is rendered by the people and not by political opponents. The BJP will be wise to project Atal Bihari, who is acceptable because he projects moderation and an intellectual depth beyond the confines of party ideology. Nothing lasts forever, and the BJP and Atal Bihari will lose the window of opportunity if they deviate from the concept of governance and a certain amount of political chivalry. The Congress finds a crowd puller in Sonic and president Sitaram Kesri is knocked out both physically and mentally and will quietly slip into oblivion. The Congress's internal battles are not yet over as V George (Sonia's PA) and Arjun Singh exercise power. The Congress has closed ranks in Maharashtra and, most importantly, in Madhya Pradesh where Arjun Singh, Madhavrao Scindia, V C Shukla and Motilal Vora co-exist in an amicable manner. The Maharashtra list also sees Sharad Pawar, S B Chavan, A R Antulay and V N Gadgil closing ranks; the Orissa and Andhra position is no different and the fact remains that the Congress wars will only commence if Sonia Gandhi abandons the neutral factor and supports Arjun Singh as the Congress supremo. This may not happen as the principle of leadership is to stay neutral and enjoy the support of all groups. This will all come about only if the numbers of the Congress and the United Front add up to 270 and the BJP is grounded at 240 seats. A BJP majority will mean that moves will be initiated for a new Congress president and Arjun Singh will be a major contender. I see the projection of an acceptable neutral like Manmohan Singh as the CLP leader and Arjun Singh as the party boss in the second stage. There will also be a clear option for Sonia Gandhi to take over as Congress president. The reality is that all budding leaders in the Congress party hopeful of leading the nation into the twentyfirst century, have been upstaged by Sonia Gandhi who wields power without responsibility. The Congress winning numbers will determine leaders for the future and leaders from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Orissa, North East, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala will determine the Congress policy while the traditional leaders from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will lose relevance and Mulayam Singh and Laloo Yadav will dictate the political agenda from these areas. The United Front, in particular the CPI-M, the DMK-TMC combine and the Samajwadi party and the TDP will produce 100 seats plus, and without them the Congress cannot form a government. Some United Front factions after the elections splitting from the United Front cannot be ruled out, and the TDP can be openly hostile. The DMK-TMC combine can also act separately if the Jain Commission issue is exhumed or if there are leaks and leaks in the conspiracy theory. The Congress needed a reason earlier to withdraw support to the United Front, but the same reason persisted with can deprive the Congress of government formation opportunity if they push the DMK towards the BJP. The recent court verdict may also help the Congress to absolve the DMK of any blame. The reality is that the Jain Commission report lacks credibility and it is no surprise that the report is not an issue. Rajiv's death was tragic and there will also be a great deal of sympathy for the family if the killers are not identified but I do feel that the public will draw a line between fact and fiction in any case. This is not an issue to settle political scores over. CPI-M supremo, Harkishan Singh Surjeet, Mulayam Singh Yadav, K Karunanidhi, G K Moopanar and Chandrababu Naidu will be major players in the Front combine. Things will move swiftly after the election as currently the Congress and the United Front will battle each other for supremacy in the states: political numbers will have to prevail over coalition formation. The united confusion of the earlier effort was apparent when a minority group governed while the major groups were idle spectators. Current forecast, as on February 8:
BJP and partners: 196 + 52 = 248 Congress + Allies: 164 United Front = 120 Others = 10 We have a difficult situation on the economic front and hopefully leaders of the future will spell out their views for the hard action required in the future. Look at Southeast Asia and look at the sad plight of the Asian Tigers. There are no simplistic solutions and there are no black magic cures. We are spending beyond our means. We are treating public funds as personal piggy-banks. We have a deficit beyond control and we spend and spend and we borrow and sell our assets to keep going. How long will it last? See Indonesia where the currency has devalued by 75 per cent and look at South Korea where a hundred companies go bankrupt every day. Look at Malaysia which curbs imports and look at Singapore which was considered the citadel of stability Economic experts will have many a theory but in sheer simplistic terms we have to shrink governance, reduce expenditure, eliminate waste and wasteful public expenditure on enterprises and individuals. We have to increase productivity and promote the creation of national assets. We have to create more and consume less and we have to do this with minimal foreign capital, for there are no free lunches. Look at Indonesia today where private companies have borrowed Rs 200 billion from private banks -- the debt has gone up to Rs 300 billion after the currency lost ground, and the result is chaos and bankruptcy. The second phase of the campaign is over and while the first belonged to the BJP, the honours in the second round are even. The decisive last round will start now and a marginal swing for the BJP will be adequate to swing the balance. The threat will wedge the Congress and United Front constituents together. Few principles are involved in getting together before the election, and there will be fewer compulsions after the elections for somersaults, and we will witness more than simple horse-trading in the days to come. |
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