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MEA feels China will not go along with Primakov's 'strategic triangle' concept

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

Visiting Russian Prime Minister Yeygeny Primakov's suggestion on Monday morning for the establishment of a strategic India-Russia-China triangle to maintain world peace is unlikely to come about because "Beijing would not be in a mood to oblige", according to senior officials of the ministry of external affairs.

The officials told Rediff On The Net that Primakov had merely re-echoed an earlier suggestion, in order to "confront the arrogance of the United States". However, China would not adopt a confrontationist posture vis-à-vis the US since its process of modernisation was largely dependent on technology transfers from Washington, it was stressed.

Asked to comment on why Primakov had made the suggestion for the strategic triangle in the first place, the officials pointed out that many countries had been "cut up" with the US over its bombing of Iraq and "those critical of the US action were keen on having a defensive mechanism which would discourage such action in the future".

They also emphasised that China's disinclination to form such a triangle would also stem from the fact that the US was treating Beijing as the world's second most powerful nation at the expense of Russia whose economic dependence on the Western nations led by the US was immense.

It was underscored that by visiting India at this particular juncture, the Russian prime minister had conveyed a message to the US that if it continued to be indiscreet, as was reflected in its bombing of Iraq, Russia too could play a similar game and "break promises" by extending unlimited military cooperation to India. It was pointed out that the strong public opinion within the US made it extremely difficult for the Clinton administration to issue any warning to Russia on the question of arms supply to India.

It is understood that on the question of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Primakov is likely to reassure India of his country's well-known stance on the issue -- carrying on business with India even as an ostensible opposition to New Delhi's nuclear test is voiced by Russian leaders. The Russian delegation has already appraised its Indian counterpart that Moscow understands the Indian point of view in the Jaswant Singh-Strobe Talbott talks, the eighth round of which are scheduled to begin in New Delhi in January next year.

Asked about the irritants in Indo-Russian bilateral trade, the officials said the rupee-rouble issue was being sorted out to the two sides' mutual satisfaction. They pointed out that India wanted Russia to re-convert the rupee at its present value but the Russians wanted it tied to the rupee-rouble value of the early 'eighties, when New Delhi purchased military hardware from the erstwhile Soviet union.

The officials indicated that bilateral trade was likely to go up to its pre-1991 level within a couple of years. India had agreed in principle to supply a number of consumer items like tea, coffee and textiles to the CIS which would lessen the problem of hard currency. It was also hinted that Indo-Russian trade, like in the past, was going to acquire the barter system from next year onwards.

Referring to the Indo-Russian military cooperation, it was stressed by the officials that Moscow was willing to sell defence hardware to New Delhi only in exchange for hard currency. For instance, Russia was willing to give an aircraft carrier to India almost free of cost. Moscow's only condition was that India should pay for the weapons on the aircraft carrier with hard currency, they added.

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