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BJP prepares for realignment of forces

George Iype in New Delhi

The Atal Bihari Vajpayee government may be comfortably placed in Parliament, but the 18-party Bharatiya Janata Party coalition is getting ready for a major realignment of forces.

The government's decision to delete Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi's name from the action taken report of the Jain Commission report is calculated to infuriate All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalitha and to open the way for Karunanidhi's DMK into the coalition.

Jayalalitha has time and again accused the Vajpayee government of protecting the TN CM from prosecution on the basis of the interim and final reports of the Jain Commission enquiry into the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.

But by admitting that the inclusion of Karunanidhi's name in the ATR was an inadvertent error, the BJP strategists have paved the way for a reversal of roles for the rival politicians in Tamil Nadu -- the exit of the mercurial AIADMK chief from the ramshackle coalition and the entry of the DMK president into it to ensure its longevity.

"We no longer fear Jayalalitha's frequent threats to pull down the government. But we now believe that she will not withdraw support for the time being because the government will survive even if the AIADMK pulls out," BJP vice-president K L Sharma, MP, told Rediff On The NeT.

"There is a possibility that a new-look Vajpayee coalition will emerge in the days to come," the BJP leader predicted.

But Sharma said the BJP has not undertaken any formal negotiations with the DMK for including it as an alliance partner.

Though Sharma and BJP spokesman M Venkaiah Naidu publicly stated on Tuesday that the party has not struck any deal with DMK on the Jain Commission report, BJP insiders said Karunanidhi and his six Lok Sabha MPs are inching closer towards joining the Vajpayee coalition.

"We are firmly in the saddle, and more and more people are willing to support the BJP," Naidu told newspersons in Madras hinting that the DMK and some other Opposition parties are actively considering joining the BJP coalition.

If the DMK tilts towards Vajpayee, as did Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu and Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Dr Farooq Abdullah, and if the AIADMK alliance breaks around the same time, the BJP expects a major realignment of political parties to occur at the Centre as well as in Tamil Nadu.

BJP sources point out that the party's efforts to cultivate Karunanidhi -- through the recent agreement on sharing Cauvery waters and the Jain Commission report -- and pit him against Jayalalitha has succeeded.

While the BJP strategists are working out the modalities of Jayalalitha's departure, Prime Minister Vajpayee is said to be planning the much-awaited ministerial expansion only after the AIADMK pulls out of the government.

Senior BJP leaders are confident of breaking the AIADMK front soon. Sources said already, the BJP leadership has promised ministerial posts to the Marumalarchi DMK's Tindivanam MP Chengee Ramachandran and Pattali Makal Katchi MP N T Shanmughan.

As the Vajpayee coalition moves forward from crisis to crisis, Congress president Sonia Gandhi is taking exceptional care to keep the government on tenterhooks and thus to destabilise it slowly.

Jayalalitha dropped her plan to withdraw support to the government last week after Sonia refused to allow the AIADMK to join an alternative Congress-led government if it set conditions on the deal.

"We are very sure that a government led by the Congress does not have the time and patience to battle over non-issues. Isn't it ridiculous that Prime Minister Vajpayee spends his time and energy to rein in Jayalalitha rather than rule the country," Congress Working Committee member Madhavrao Scindia told Rediff On The NeT.

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