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Jaya could be just sabre-rattling

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

Is All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham supremo J Jayalalitha's threat to "review" support to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government another pressure tactic, to ensure her group is not ignored during the much-awaited Cabinet expansion at the Centre?

While keeping an "open mind" on continued support to the Bharatiya Janata Party, the AIADMK leadership is also piqued that party ministers could lose their politically sensitive portfolios. Added to that, the AIADMK may want to be considered for some `productive ministries' in the expansion.

At present, M Thambidurai of the AIADMK is the minister for law and company affairs, holding additional charge of surface transport, which was initially held by his party colleague Sedapatti R Muthiah. Likewise, Kadambur R Janarthanam is the minister of state for personnel, in charge of the Central Bureau of Investigation among others. He holds additional charge of revenue and banking following the resignation of R K Kumar, his party colleague.

According to party sources, both ministers feel stifled by the existing working atmosphere "where bureaucrats sympathetic to the BJP and its views on Tamil Nadu matters treat them as pushovers".

These sources also claim that the AIADMK's allies are being taken into confidence by the BJP, and being offered ministerial posts.

In this context, the sources refer to the all-important ministerial committee for finalising the action taken report on the Justice Milap Chand Jain Commission findings, as also the just-concluded Cauvery water talks. "As law minister, Thambidurai should have been involved in both. Instead, only four BJP ministers were involved in finalising the ATR, and Prime Minister Vajpayee handled the details of the Cauvery talks through the cabinet secretary."

Other sources, particularly those in the BJP, beg to differ. As they point out, Thambidurai's direct involvement in the ATR discussions would have only lent credence to the later-day criticisms of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, given their known adversities.

"After all, the BJP ministers have not cleared Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, but have only recommended further investigation."

On Cauvery, however, opinions differ. While the BJP sources are more charitable, others say that the involvement of an AIADMK minister would have ensured that the smooth solution now worked out by the prime minister would not have been in place.

"The AIADMK and its allies are under political pressure to degrade the DMK government, and the very same solution which was there for full seven years ever since the Cauvery Waters Tribunal gave its interim award in 1991, would have been thwarted all over again," said one of them.

For the present, the AIADMK leadership is said to be in two minds. One suggestion is for the party to withdraw its ministers as a first step towards either a full withdrawal of support -- or a final patch-up with the BJP. The advocates of the second line refer to the Tamil Maanila Congress staying out of the I K Gujral government initially, and returning to the United Front fold after making their point.

Some people close to the AIADMK leadership are confident that the Congress under Sonia Gandhi is now ready to form an alternative government should the opportunity present itself. But there are divergent opinions on the subject. The Congress leadership, it is said, is in no great hurry to rush in, should there be a vacuum at the top.

"We do not want to be in Vajpayee's shoes, not yet," was the reported comment of a top Congress leader to an AIADMK intermediary at Delhi recently. Others say the "Congress may consider only offers of unconditional support to the party, from the AIADMK."

The source explained, "The Congress has not reacted favourably to the AIADMK, anticipating a demand for the dismissal of the DMK state government. The party also would like to decide for itself whether to form an alternative government, go to the people, or do both. It does not want the junior partners to dictate terms any more."

Should the AIADMK withdraw support to the Vajpayee government, the prime minister may approach President K R Narayanan for directions. Should that lead to the prime minister seeking the confidence of the Lok Sabha, sources say the DMK and even the TMC could abstain from voting. And some of the known AIADMK allies may have second thoughts. "Even a section of the AIADMK parliamentary group may rethink their stand, given the 'unpopular' party stand on the Cauvery solution."

Jayalalitha is meeting her alliance leaders in Madras on Thursday, a day after the Supreme Court hearing on the Cauvery waters dispute, when the Centre-sponsored solution will be officially announced.

The meeting assumes greater significance since Jayalalitha has set the Supreme Court hearing as the deadline for the prime minister to go back on his current solution, and notify the original draft scheme for implementing the interim award of the Cauvery Waters Tribunal.

"It's not known whether Union Petroleum Minister Vazhappadi K Ramamurthy, heading the Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress, will attend this meeting. He was away in his constituency during a similar meeting last Saturday," the sources say. "Even from among those present, it's anybody's guess how far the four-member Pattali Makkal Katchi and the three-member Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will go on backing 'unpleasant' suggestions from others."

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