It's Diwali, time to ring in the new and let bygones go. Time to make new-year resolutions and also to clean up and make space for new things. Your investment portfolio is no exception.
We spoke to four market experts and got them to recommend stocks you must book profits in. This is what they said:
Rajeev Thakkar, director and senior vice president, research, Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services Ltd
Pantaloon Retail (Price: Rs 1,846.35, P/E: 77.37, EPS: 23.86)
Pantaloon will face competition from new players as well as higher costs because of expensive real estate. Its valuations are very expensive. The risk is higher because of aggressive growth, resulting in high debt levels and entry into new retail segments.
Jet Airways (Price: Rs 646.5, P/E: 17.9, EPS: 36.11)
The airline business is getting competitive with the entry of new players. Capacity expansions announced are far in excess of the demand. This will lead to falling fares and flight occupancy. The industry has had a bad track record internationally in terms of investor returns.
Financial Tech (Rs 1,758.25, P/E: 175.62, EPS: 10.01)
Financial Tech, a provider of software for stock exchanges, brokers and financial service companies, also holds a majority stake in leading commodity exchange MCX. The concern here is on stock valuation. With a market capitalisation of Rs 7,400 crore and consolidated profits of Rs 69 crore for the year ended 31 March 2006, growth potentials have been factored in.
Unitech (Rs 344.15, P/E: 206.29, EPS: 1.67)
Unitech is currently trading at its 52-week high price, and its market capitalisation is Rs 22,475 crore. Whatever the valuation of the land bank, time taken for construction to be completed and sales and profits to be realised could be a long one and the current market price makes the stock a very high-risk investment.
Indiabulls Financial Services (Rs 403.95, P/E: 88.14, EPS: 4.58)
Indiabulls is getting into many unrelated diversifications. The stock broking business is a cyclical one and earning may see a decline if the markets were to fall. This is especially the case when the business model depends on trading volume by way of F&O and margin trading.
************************
Amitabh Chakraborty, head, research and private client group, Brics Securities
ABB (Rs 2,934.65, P/E: 45.93, EPS: 63.89)
ABB is likely to grow at 36 per cent in two years. We recommend booking profit here, primarily due to high valuations. Currently, it is quoting at P/E of 39 times on trailing basis, 27 times one year forward, and 20 times on a two-year forward basis.
Asian Electronics (Rs 534.15, P/E: 16.54, EPS: 32.30)
Asian Electronics, one of the leading Energy Service Companies (ESCO), is set to double its revenues and profits in the coming year. Its share price has more than doubled since the low in June 2006. However, the recent plan to raise equity in order to fund ESCO projects is expected to have a dilutive impact in our estimates. With no major positive triggers anticipated, we recommend booking profits.
Ashok Leyland (Rs 46.2, P/E: 18.22, EPS: 2.54)
Ashok Leyland is trading at 13 times FY08 earnings. We believe the valuations are stretched at the current levels, especially in light of an announcement regarding its intent to raise $150 million through a mix of equity/debt/convertible bonds. The stock price has appreciated 50 per cent
Mawana Sugars (Rs 78.85, P/E: 9.97, EPS: 7.91)
Mawana Sugar has a high capital base and capital expenditure plan could lead to higher interest costs. Also, any equity issue would prove to be dilutive. The management's crushing target for 2006-07 seems aggressive. Our target price is Rs 72 and we recommend booking profit in the shares.
Jyoti Structures (Rs 114.45, P/E: 26.72, EPS: 4.28)
We recommend booking profits in Jyoti Structures' shares and shift to KEC International instead. KEC is better placed as it generates about Rs 1 billion per annum. Jyoti's appreciation would be 7.2 per cent.
************************
Ambareesh Baliga, vice president, Karvy Stock Broking Ltd
Titan (Rs 780.85, P/E: 47.69, EPS: 16.37)
With other players emulating Titan's success model and hordes of foreign brands giving it a competition, the company's growth could get affected. It's prudent to book out before signs of slowdown appear on the horizon.
Great Eastern Shipping (Rs 305.60, P/E: 6.75, EPS: 45.27)
Assuming demerger and unlocking of value, the sum of parts in an optimistic scenario works out in the range of Rs 240 to Rs 280. There are other value stocks in shipping as well as offshore, so book profits at a premium.
Hero Honda (Rs 751.2, P/E: 14.93, EPS: 50.31)
There are clear signs of a slowdown here. Bajaj has turned out to be a formidable competitor. TVS, too, is back on track. With increased competition one can only expect lower margins and a smaller pie for Hero Honda.
Hotel Leela (Rs 64.90, P/E: 16.32, EPS: 3.98)
Though things are upbeat in the hotel industry, Hotel Leela's story is not optimistic. Its main properties and income are Bangalore, Goa and Mumbai. Bangalore tariffs are already high and seem to have reached a saturation level. Further, additional properties and revenues would not happen for the next 30 to 36 months. The story of tariff hike can't sustain the stock at higher levels for the next two years.
Real Estate Plays
This is one sector that has seen a lot of momentum in the last couple of months. In contrast to construction plays, this sector's valuations are based on "land banks". Though land is a physical asset, its valuations vary with perceptions. We don't suggest an outright sell, but we recommend investors to be cautious.
************************
Harendra Kumar, head, research, ICICI direct.com
IDBI Bank (Rs 83.30, P/E: 10.00, EPS: 8.33)
The stock has had a fantastic run and investors can still look to book profits. The bank is in the integration phase with the erstwhile IDBI Bank, and now United Western Bank, which may take some time. It is also trying to cut down its cost of deposits. The market has priced these in and the stock is likely to move sideways now.
Syndicate Bank (Rs 88.45, P/E: 8.33, EPS: 10.61)
The stock has exceeded our price target and we believe that Rs 105-110 levels are good to book profits.
NTPC (Rs 130.20, P/E: 17.70, EPS: 7.35)
The power sector is in the midst of a capital expenditure boom with all three major players -- Reliance Energy, Tata Power and NTPC -- announcing expansions. But, as these are long gestation projects, it will take some time for cash flows to come in. After rallying over 30 per cent in the last three to four months, investors can book profits around Rs 145-150 levels.
