Stocks of controversial groups beaten down

Measured by capitalisation of listed companies, the market wealth of groups involved in the telecom and illegal mining scams and on corporate governance issues have almost halved during this calendar year.

For instance, Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group companies, Sun TV, Unitech and Essar Group companies, all linked to the 2G telecom scam, and the Adani and Jindal group firms named in an illegal mining case, have seen erosion of 36-70 per cent in market capitalisation (m-cap) over the previous year, far worse than the limping benchmark of the Bombay Stock Exchange, the Sensex (down 24 per cent) and the broad-based BSE-500 index (down 27 per cent).

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The Indian market's total m-cap slipped from Rs 7,299,240 crore (Rs 72.992 trillion) at the beginning of this year to Rs 5,348,095 crore (Rs 53.480 trillion) as at the end of the calendar year.

The Anil Ambani-led Reliance ADA Group has been the worst hit. It had a 56 per cent erosion in m-cap, the most among India's top 10 business houses in percentage terms.

The combined m-cap of the group's six companies was Rs 49,391 crore as on December 29, a little more than 50 per cent lower compared to the Rs 1,13,026 crore (Rs 1.130 trillion) in January.

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The market capitalisation of the Ramesh Chandra-promoted Unitech and the Shahid Balwa-led DB Realty plunged 70 per cent each, while that of the Essar and Sun groups dropped 50 per cent each.

All these companies, plus Ambani's Reliance Communications, were named by the Comptroller and Auditor General in the 2G spectrum allocation scam.

In metals and mining, Adani Enterprises and JSW Steel fared worse than their peers after the Supreme Court banned iron ore mining in Karnataka. The state Lokayukta-led panel alleged the two companies had paid bribes and engaged in unethical corporate behaviour to get around regulations.

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The Adani Group has lost 43 per cent or Rs 57,383 crore (Rs 573.83 billion) in m-cap, while the OP Jindal Group eroded 40 per cent, or Rs 40,222 crore (Rs 402.22 billion), of investors' wealth.

Overall, the top five business groups - headed by Mukesh Ambani, Ratan Tata, Anil Ambani, Adani and Vedanta - accounted for 70 per cent of the total value erosion of the top 20 groups.

Another prominent loser was Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, the worst performer in absolute terms.

The company lost a third, or Rs 1.13 lakh crore (Rs 1130 billion), in m-cap.

RIL has been accused of inflating expenses for developing the D6 block in the Krishna-Godavari basin, and for a decline in production from this block.

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"RIL has been surrounded by controversies and there are a lot of short positions built in.

However, the stock has the potential to bounce back if the markets stage a recovery. It is quite possible the stock may lead a rally in the markets," says Kishore Ostwal, chairman, CNI Research.

However, there is also hope. Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Global Securities, says: "These companies have been subject to intense scrutiny and the markets have reacted accordingly.

Given that these are managed by seasoned professionals, the stocks can recover lost ground over time."

On the other side, the Tata, AV Birla, Mahindra and Shiv Nadar groups fared relatively better.

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The losses have also been comparatively less for the Godrej, Bajaj, Munjal and Bharti groups, with their respective m-caps sliding less than five per cent during 2011.

"One can hold on to these stocks at current levels, with a stop-loss close to their respective 52-week lows. They can recover some lost ground if the markets start to move up.

Bharti Airtel is a high-beta stock and should do well in 2012. I suggest one buys this scrip on a decline," said Alex Mathews, head of technical and derivatives research at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial.