India is expected to post an economic growth rate of eight per cent in the current fiscal despite the ongoing turmoil in the global financial markets, research firm Dun & Bradstreet said on Thursday.
"We are maintaining our forecast of eight per cent growth for the current financial year despite the dwindling global economic scenario," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Operating Officer Kaushal Sampat said.
The global credit crisis might have slight impact on the Indian economy, but there would not be any significant impact as the financial institutions in the country were insulated, and regulators should be given credit for this, Sampat added.
"In line with D&B expectations, GDP growth moderated to around 8 per cent during the first quarter of FY09. The moderation in growth is significant, especially when compared to the 9.24 per cent growth in the first quarter of FY08," Sampat said.
Going forward, given the high interest rates and low consumer demand, industrial production was expected to remain subdued, Sampat added.
D&B in its September economy forecast said that given the subdued demand conditions and high raw material prices, industrial production should remain moderate. "We expect IIP to have grown within the 6-7 per cent range during August this year," the report said.
Regarding Inflation, D&B said the Wholesale Price Index during September this year is likely to average between 12 to 12.20 per cent.
Sampat further said given the measures the Reserve Bank had taken and the declining crude oil prices, inflation was expected to moderate.
"Inflation is likely to come off its double-digit mark from early next year," Sampat added.
The moderation in inflation in the past three weeks could partly be attributed to the decline in international prices of crude and edible oils following the improved supply conditions, the report said.
"Although moderation in international crude and edible oil prices have provided some respite from surging inflation in the past few weeks, headline inflation continues to be double-digit. With growth in money supply and bank credit still above RBI's target rates, we expect further monetary tightening," Sampat added.
The 15-91 days treasury bill yields is expected to remain in 8.70-8.90 range for September this year, the report added.
During September, rupee is expected to be in the range of 45.20-45.50 to a dollar, with strengthening of the US currency and a sustained demand for the same, D&B said.
Rupee has weakened and breached the 45/dollar mark. It has depreciated by almost 8 per cent to 45.77/dollar on September 12 as compared to 42.37/dollar on August 1.
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