HSBC decided to find out.
They commissioned TNS to conduct a survey across 18 countries in Europe (the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Turkey), The Americas (Canada, the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico), Asia (China, Hong Kong, Korea, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan) and Australia.
The 4,000 respondents were the middle market enterprises (MMEs) and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Significantly, large corporations were excluded.
While SMEs and MMEs were defined differently in all countries, in India, those with a turnover of more than Rs 50 crore (Rs 500 million) were classified as MMEs and those with less fell into the SME category.
Who said what?
The survey was started late 2005 and completed earlier this year. The businesses were asked what they think of the current business environment in their own country and their outlook for 2006.
The results, that were declared this month, were more than interesting.
Current economy 'very good' or 'fairly good': The Americans topped
|
The Americas |
Asia-Pacific |
Europe |
|
36% - SME |
30% - SME |
29% - SME |
Economic outlook for 2006 to get even better: Asia-Pacific topped
|
Asia-Pacific |
The Americas |
Europe |
|
46% - SME |
36% - SME |
22% - SME |
The Asia-Pacific (Asia-Australia) outlook for 2006 was the brightest of the three regions. Not surprising, since many tout that the future of the world lies in Asia.
But ironically, many of the Asian countries do not feel that way.
India rules in sentiment
Indian businessmen are more positive about the state of their economy than their counterparts in other countries.
In fact, India emerged as the most positive country in Asia. Almost all believe that the current climate is positive and no one sees a downturn in the future.
|
Current economic climate: India | |
|
Very good |
47% - SME |
|
Fairly good |
41% - SME |
|
Neither good nor bad |
12% - SME |
|
Outlook for 12 months' time: India | |
|
Better |
88% - SME |
|
Same |
12% - SME |
|
Worse |
0% - SME |
Singapore and Malaysia follow next. The majority of businesses in Singapore are optimistic about the future and expect an upturn in the economy next year. In Malaysia, most expect the economy to remain fairly stable in the coming months, perhaps with some improvement.
The current and future outlook is also very positive in Australia.
The Chinese outlook is also fairly positive with over two thirds considering the current environment to be very or fairly good. The majority of businesses also expect the economy to improve in the near future.
Hong Kong was more positive than negative about the current economic situation but many view it as neither good nor bad. Expectations are that the next 12 months will bring a more positive trading environment or that things will largely remain as they are. Few expect the situation to worsen.
Opinion regarding the current state of the Taiwanese economy and the outlook for the next 12 months is very varied. It is not a particularly positive current outlook and no change envisaged for the foreseeable future.
Indonesia is less 'upbeat' than most other countries with the majority of businesses holding a fairly indifferent 'neither good or bad" view of the current economic situation. However, there is a strong expectation that the economy will improve over the next year.
Korea is the most negative in terms of current outlook although a third to half of Korean businesses are more positive that this will change for the better in the near future.
India is the hot retail destination too
If that was the perception of the businessmen for their country, then we another one for the perception of the retail industry.
For the past five years, A.T. Kearney, global managing and consulting firm, has been coming out with the Global Retail Development IndexTM. (GRDI).
This index does ranks 30 emerging countries based on more than 25 macroeconomic and retail-specific variables
The countries are ranked on a 100-point scale -- the higher the ranking, the more urgency there is to enter a market since it indicates that the retail sector is advancing quickly. And those who immediately enter the markets ranked the highest will get a distinct retail edge.
Well, this time around India has topped the 2006 GRDI score with 100 points. The next contender follows with 85 (Russia), 84 (Vietnam), 83 (Ukraine) and 82 (China).
The A T Kearney report estimates the retail market in India to be $350 billion and is expected to grow at 13 per cent annually. Yet, the top five retailers account for less than 2 per cent of the modern retail market. Now that the government has allowed foreign companies to own up to 51 per cent of a single-brand retail company (such as Nike), the country seems to be more lucrative.
Coupled with a forecast 8 per cent GDP growth, India does look 'hot.'
