Fears of banks' earnings plummeting in a deregulated savings deposit rate regime appear to have gripped investors, with most analysts hinting that profitability may come under pressure due to higher cost of funds amid slowing growth in advances.
"The rise in the savings deposit rate will increase pressures on banks' profitability," Suman Chowdhury, head of Crisil Ratings, said.
The rating agency expects the lenders' return on asset ratio to shrink by five basis points (bps) because of higher savings deposit rate, even if banks increase their transaction and service charges on such deposits.
The Reserve Bank of India yesterday allowed banks to decide on their own the interest rate on savings deposits.
The central bank, however, asked banks to pay a uniform rate on savings deposits up to Rs 100,000 irrespective of the amount in the account.
Lenders may offer differential rates on deposits above Rs 100,000, but there should not be any discrimination between customers on interest rates for similar deposit amounts. Banks have been paying four per cent interest on savings deposits.
The move was not well received by investors, as bank shares plunged yesterday in an otherwise strong broader market.
The 12-share Bank Nifty closed 1.41 per cent down, though the benchmark 50-share S&P CNX Nifty ended 1.83 per cent higher.
"We think this is a positive move for the economy, even though it
Economists and analysts fear in the short term, the deregulation may lead to a rate war, with small and medium-sized banks looking to strengthen their retail deposit bases will hike their savings deposit rates aggressively.
It took no time for YES Bank, the youngest lender in the country, to increase its savings deposit rate by 200 bps to six per cent. The private lender's share of low-cost deposit was only 11 per cent at the end of September.
Other lenders such as IDBI Bank, Canara Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank and Union Bank of India that have relatively lower share of the savings deposit base, are expected to raise rates soon.
"This change (deregulation of the savings deposit rate) is likely to result in an upward pressure on the deposit and interest rate trajectory in the near term, given the ongoing tightness in liquidity," Siddhartha Sanyal, chief economist of Barclays Capital in India, said.
Industry experts said some bank stocks that were enjoying a premium over their peers because of strong retail deposit base, may be re-rated.
SMC Global Securities estimates if the savings deposit rate rises by 100 bps, banks profitability could be reduced by 12.9 per cent.
"In the short term, it can be said the deregulation of interest rates on savings accounts is a real game-changer," Jagannadham Thunuguntla, strategist and head of research at SMC, said.
