India and Pakistan's relation will get unprecedented boost if talks on Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India natural gas project proceeds on a fast track, said a high-level source in the Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.
Murli Deora, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, will be leaving for Pakistan on Tuesday.
Before leaving for Pakistan, a source in the ministry said, "India wants to take up the TAPI gas project seriously." The controversial project is being debated since 1992.
At times the gas project from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan has seen dirty political warfare, while at other times it witnessed deadly diplomatic games. Deora now wants to get proactive in this region.
According to Hamid Mir, political editor of Geo TV, "Originally, this pipeline from Turkmenistan oil fields was mooted by Unocol, a US Oil Company. When Benazir Bhutto awarded the contract to Bridas, an Argentinean company, the US Ambassador to Pakistan Tom Simmons objected. Unocol made some serious allegations against Asif Zardari, which were not taken lightly by Bhutto."
It was alleged then that the American company Unocol had struck a deal with Taliban for the safe passage of gas pipeline through Afghanistan. Even Bhutto had supported Taliban to protect the pipeline that she was strongly supporting.
The biggest issue in realising the TAPI pipeline project is the issue of security through Afghanistan. TAPI natural-gas transmission pipeline will be about 1,700 kilometres to transport about 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually from the Dauletabad gas fields in southeast Turkmenistan to consumers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and, possibly, India.
The project is backed by the US. The US government has given indication in the past that TAPI can be a better alternative to Iran-Pakistan-India peace pipeline.
"There is nothing wrong in going ahead with talks on TAPI but one is not sure how much gas Turkmenistan has. They have already committed gas to Russia, Europe and China. India should know the certified reserves of gas (in Turkmenistan) to go ahead with certainty," said former diplomat Rajeev Sikri.
"The cost of the project, if India gets involved, is estimated at about $7 billion. We don't see any problem in arranging finance for it," said the ministry source.
When asked about Afghanistan security issue, the source said, "Our assessment is that Talibans will not disturb the TAPI gas pipeline."
Deora's three-day visit comes during highly volatile diplomatic times as China has shown serious interest in Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) peace pipeline.
According to a Delhi-based expert, it is possible that India will be talking about TAPI pipeline to exert pressure and get a better deal on gas price through IPI pipeline.
"The rules of the open market economy are at work here with political and diplomatic strings attached," said the source.
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected in New Delhi on April 29 when he will meet the prime minister 'for discussions on issues of mutual interest', which will include the IPI pipeline. Major issues between Pakistan and Iran over the IPI have been resolved.
Deora will also hold talks on the stalled IPI pipeline with Pakistani officials to sort out the transit fee issue. Talks on the issue are going on since last year.
While talking to the media about IPI on Monday, Deora said, "I am hopeful that with an elected government installed in Pakistan, an agreement would be clinched and the pipeline could become a reality soon."
The minitsry source said, "Indian media is not highlighting the big deal struck with Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez has agreed for $ 400 million joint venture to drill for oil and gas in Venezuela's oil-rich southeastern Orinoco region in the coming five years."
Indian officials are studying Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's recent proposal to build an oil and gas pipeline to China during his talks with Chinese leader Hu Jintao.
Mir said, "In the new set up in Pakistan, Nawaz Sharief's party has got the petroleum ministry. The political set up in Pakistan minus Musharraf is expected to decide such issues, now."
He further added, "Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistani minister from the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party will be visiting China soon for talks on China-Pakistan co-operation in the energy field."
Murli Deora's visit is crucial because of China's proposed entry into the IPI peace pipeline.
