Official studies indicate that the total annual rainfall in the country is likely to increase by 15 per cent to 31 per cent by the end of the 21st century. The annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 3 degrees celsius to 6 degrees celsius during this period.
The pattern of the monsoon has changed significantly over the past 100 years with some parts getting higher rainfall and others getting less rainfall than before.
These are the findings of the analyses done by the India Meteorological Department and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.
These studies generally point to the same trends for changes in temperature, heat waves, glaciers, droughts, floods and sea level rise as reported by the United Nations Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change in its reports released globally recently.
"The magnitude of the change varies in some cases," the government told the parliamentary consultative committee attached to the agriculture ministry in its meeting held, here, on 19 July.
Monsoon rainfall data over the past 100 years shows an increasing trend in annual rainfall in the areas along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and north-west India.
On the other hand, a decreasing rainfall trend has been observed in east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, north-east India and parts of Gujarat and Kerala. The annual rainfall has decreased by 6 to 8 per cent of the normal in over 100 years in these tracts.
At the same time, the temperature of the surface air rose by about 0. 4 degrees celsius between 1901 and 2000. While the west coast, central India, interior peninsula and the north-east have tended to become significantly warmer, north-west and some parts of southern India have shown a cooling trend.
Notably, the instrumental records for past 130 years do not show any significant long-term trend in the frequencies of large-scale droughts or floods during the monsoon season.
Also, the frequency of cyclonic storms that form over the Bay of Bengal and influence the performance of the monsoon has remained almost constant for 100 years between 1887 and 1997.
