Government support to Budget 2011-12 - or, gross budgetary support (GBS) - is likely to rise by 18 per cent over last year, taking Planning Commission estimates made at the beginning of the 11th Plan (2007-12).
With those estimates, the government has with it resources worth Rs 3.73 lakh crore to fund the Budget for the last year of the Plan.
Of the overall budgetary support of Rs 12.41 lakh crore envisaged at the beginning of the 11th Plan, Rs 8.68 lakh crore has already been utilised in the first four years (2007-08 to 2010-11), leaving Rs 3.73 lakh crore for 2011-12.
Assuming a 15 per cent increase in GBS in 2011-12, the 11th Plan would have achieved 96 per cent of initial projections in real terms.
The figures do not include supplementary allocations made during the ongoing financial year. The government has until now provided Rs 74,401 crore (Rs 744.01 billion) as additional allocations in 2010-11.
The finance ministry is reported to have assured the Planning Commission of an increase of at least 15 per cent in GBS to Rs 3.3 lakh crore, giving the finance ministry leg room of around Rs 42,561.23 crore (Rs 425.61 billion) in 2011-12.
This amount can be used by the finance ministry to cushion the fiscal deficit target of 4.8 per cent in 2011-12.
However, given the optimistic revenue and growth outlook, the finance ministry is expected to increase budgetary support in subsequent meetings with the Planning Commission.
The increase is expected in place of the government's committment to increase expenditure in departments and ministries associated with programmes involved in the 'inclusion' agenda, namely, the rural development ministry and department of education (which will implement the Right to Education Act), the Unique Identification Authority of India and the ministry of agriculture.
Two new schemes are expected to be announced in the Budget: the Rashtriya Khel Abhiyan, which aims to develop sports infrastructure, and a job guarantee scheme for urban areas.
In the Budget for 2010-11, the government had provided an increase of 22.4 per cent in GBS over the previous year to Rs 2.81 lakh crore.
Even as budgetary support has been in line with projections made at the beginning of the Plan, the expenditure pattern in various sectors has not been as planned, with some sectors witnessing higher expenditure than others.
Schemes to promote inclusiveness have totalled Rs 1.7 lakh crore of the GBS utilised in the first four years - nearly 45 per cent of the budgetary support for the Centre. Most of these schemes belong to the rural development ministry.
Rural development, transport and energy have received more than projected while health and education have received less.
The Planning Commission had earlier stated that health and education expenditure was limited by spending capacity in the earlier years and was expected to be back-loaded. However, the process was hindered by the economic downturn in 2008.
