Airfares to the West may drop 15-20%

Airfares to the West are likely to come down by at least 15-20 per cent after September 15, when the ongoing student rush takes a back-seat and the festival season keeps Indians from travelling abroad.

Balbir Mayal, vice-president, Travel Agents Association of India said business travel dipped by 30-40 per cent from August 1, 2003, when most West-bound airlines increased their fares by 30 per cent.

Now some airlines are in the process of introducing up to 50 per cent discounts to attract travellers, he said.

Subhash Goyal, chairman of Stic Travels, said the airlines had cashed in on the high season demand, and now some of them might introduce discounts between 5-15 per cent to fill their seats.

While Air-India has already extended its `buy one-get one free' ticket scheme till December 31, some other foreign airlines are likely to announce a free companion seat offer soon.

"After September, Europe becomes very cold, and as the duration of the day decreases, both leisure and incentive travel take a back seat. Therefore, airlines are not likely to be 100 per cent full. This might put pressure on them to offer more sops," Cox and Kings, regional manager (north India) for outbound leisure travel, Vikas Khanduri said.

However, the current discounted fares to south-east Asia might take a U-turn because of the high demand.

Some travel agents feel that since most flights to south-east Asia are full, the current 20-25 per cent discounts might go down.

"After August 15, increased travel to south-east Asia has dented domestic leisure travel by about 12-15 per cent," Arjun Sharma, managing director, Select Holiday Resorts and former Sita head said. The traffic has almost touched pre-Sars levels in these countries, he added.

Khanduri added that the region becomes favoured destination in winters, especially because of low cost of accommodation and ease in getting visas for the entire family.

"The fares then might be in tandem with the rack rates, especially during long weekends when leisure travel to these destinations shows an upward movement," he added.

Sharma, however, felt that the discounted rates would continue since the tourism boards want to help the markets to completely recover from the Sars impact.