Diwali to bring good returns for investors

It is likely to be a crackling Diwali for investors, who have doubled their wealth at the bourses since the last festival of lights, as historic trends show a positive spark in muhurat trading in the last six years.

Both BSE and NSE would conduct one-hour muhurat trading on Friday evening to mark the auspicious occasion of Diwali, when people pay obeisance to Lakshmi - the goddess of wealth.

The total investor wealth, measured in terms of total market capitalisation of all the listed companies, has risen by nearly Rs 30 trillion since the last Diwali. Besides, the trend over the past six years shows that the market has gained in all muhurat trading sessions.

In 2001, the Sensex rose 35.85 points (1.16 per cent) over its previous day close and settled at 3,113.04 points. In the next year, it advanced 37 points (1.25 per cent).

Similar trend was witnessed through 2003 to 2006 when Sensex gained 45 points, 10 points, 51.78 points and 27.42 points respectively.

The market capitalisation has risen from about Rs 75,000 crore (Rs 750 billion) on Diwali in 2000 to over Rs 33,00,000 crore (Rs 33 trillion) last year, while it stands at over Rs 62,00,000 crore (Rs 62 trillion) currently.

This is more than double the gain seen between the Diwali days in 2005 and 2006, when it had grown by about Rs 12 trillion, and is the second biggest rise between two Diwali.

Between 2000 and 2001, the investors' wealth had seen a whopping gain of over Rs 4 trillion, which was mostly due to a lower base. Since the last Diwali, the Sensex has recorded as many as eight 1000-point milestones starting from 13,000 to 20,000.

However, the index on Thursday dropped below the 19,000 level in intra-day trade and closed at 19,058 points, down 231 points, continuing the slide for the fourth consecutive day.

While the index crossed 20,000 level in intra-day trade on October 29, it is yet to close above it and the bulls expect Diwali to bring back the positive movement on the bourses to help Sensex close above this milestone.

However, some analysts expect that bearish phase might further continue for the next few days. "Slowly but steadily muhurat trading is losing its importance," Arun Kejriwal of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services (KRIS) told PTI.

"We have started moving in a much bigger manner, a fluctuation of 500-plus points is normal nowadays. So even if the Sensex adds 100 to 150 points on Muhurat trading it would not impact the current scenario much, Kejriwal added.