Latest statistics from the International Copper Study Group, the apex copper body in the world, say global copper use in 2008 is projected to grow by 3.6 per cent.
Following is the excerpt from the ICSG study:
According to ICSG data, after ending 2005 with a deficit of 120,000 tonnes (t ), the copper market in 2006 turned to a calculated surplus of around 330,000 t, about 1.9 per cent of annual usage.
Projections for 2007 indicate an additional surplus around 280,000 t and projections for 2008 indicate a larger surplus of around 520,000 t. Note that ICSG does not take into account changes in China's SRB stocks, which are unreported and, particularly for 2006, might have affected calculation of China's apparent usage.
World copper mine production in 2007 is projected to rise by 6.3 per cent to 15.97 million tonnes, an increase of about 940,000 t compared with that in 2006 owing to new mine developments and increased capacity utilization.
Production in 2006 was essentially unchanged from that in 2005 owing to production problems in Chile, Indonesia and Mexico. Mine Production in 2008 is expected to increase by an additional 1.2 Mt (+7.3 per cent) reaching 17.13 Mt.
For both years, higher growth rates are expected for SX-EW production than for concentrate production.
World production of refined copper (adjusted for both feed shortages and production disruptions) is projected to reach 18.07 Mt in 2007, an increase of about 740,000 t (+4.3%) compared with that of 2006. Refined production in 2008 is projected to increase by 4.9% to 18.95 Mt, an increase of about 880,000 t compared with that of 2007.
Electrolytic refinery production increases in China, India and Japan, and SX-EW production growth in Chile, Africa and the United States are expected to account for most of the growth. Concentrates production in 2007 and 2008 is expected to restrain the growth of refined production, with inventories of copper concentrates having been largely depleted during 2006.
World refined copper usage increased by only 2 per cent in 2006 to 17 Mt, primarily due to a decline in US usage of around 6 per cent and flat apparent demand in China (0.1 per cent), the two biggest refined copper using countries.
The main contributors to 2006 growth were the EU, Japan, India and the Russian Federation. In 2007, refined copper usage is projected at 17.80 Mt, an increase of about 800,000 t (4.7 per cent) compared with that of 2006. Apparent Refined usage in China is expected to increase along with continued growth in India and Russia, while demand is expected to remain essentially unchanged for the EU, Japan and the United States.
World copper use in 2008 is projected to grow by 3.6 per cent, or about 640,000 t, to 18.43 Mt.
