This piece of forecast from the India Meteorological Department and the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts may bring cheer to Indian farmers, who have been reeling under hostile weather conditions during the past few months.
After fears of global warming spread a pal of gloom across the farmlands in the country, the IMD has forecast early monsoon showers lashing the country's coasts.
According to IMD, the southwest monsoon has set in over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, the Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea on Thursday, at least eight days ahead of schedule.
In its update, the IMD said conditions were favourable for the monsoon's further advancement over some more parts of Andaman Sea and southeast Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours.
The Bay of Bengal arm of monsoon normally breaks around May 18-20, followed 10-12 days later by the counterpart Arabian Sea arm along the southwest coast of the mainland. The onset over intervening Sri Lanka takes place roughly midway between.
The anticipated low-pressure area is likely to form over east central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea within the next 24 hours, the IMD said.
According to ECMWF, the 'low pressure area' will later move in a north-northeast direction and make a landfall along the West Bengal coast by May 17.
The larger trough of `low' in the Bay may linger for another week. But the high-pressure area extending from Arabia east to Pakistan and northwest India was predominant, indicating that the oppressive heating of this region will continue.
According to weathermen, there is no guarantee that the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon will retain the eight-day lead of its counterpart, but there are indications that the southwest Indian Ocean may be bracing to guide a barrage of cross-equatorial monsoon flows off the east African coast into the Arabian Sea.
The ECMWF said in its six-day outlook that the cross-equatorial monsoon flows may pick in strength around May 18, culminating in a blow-up near the Horn of Africa (Somali coast) two days later.
This could well be the trigger the system needs to heave itself forward to the Kerala coast.
Meanwhile, heat wave conditions prevailed over some parts of south coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamil Nadu during the past 24 hours where the day temperatures were above normal by 5-6 degree Celsius. Heat wave conditions are likely to continue over these regions and extend to some more parts of south India during next 2-3 days.
