India's foodgrain production could fall 11 million tonnes short of the target of 220 million tonnes, putting further pressure on food prices that are already at a high, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday.
The target for foodgrain production for 2006-07 was fixed at 220 million tonnes, but actual production could be around 209.2 million tonnes, it said.
"Poor agricultural performance, as the current year has demonstrated, can complicate maintenance of price stability with supply side problems in essential commodities of day-to-day consumption," said the Survey tabled in Parliament.
The Survey noted that food items like wheat, pulses and sugar were some of the key contributors to the high inflation, which touched 6.7 per cent in early February.
The estimated actual production at 209.2 million tones is marginally higher than the 208.6 million tonnes in 2005-06.
The target of 220 million tonnes was fixed in view of the late monsoon rains during September 2006 in several states.
The rains brightened production prospects of Kharif crops and triggered early sowing of crops on residual moisture during Rabi, especially of wheat in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the Survey said.
"With a welcome rainfall in early February, prospects of wheat and other Rabi crops have brightened," it said.
Wheat production is estimated at 72.5 million tonnes, against 69.4 million tonnes in 2005-06. However, the target for the crop's output has been fixed at 75.5 million tonnes.
The output of rice is likely to slip to 90 million tones in 2006-07 from 91.8 million tonnes in the previous year. The target for the current year was fixed at 92.8 million tonnes.
Production of pulses too may fall short of the target. The estimated output is fixed at 14.5 million tonnes, against the target of 15.1 million tonnes.
The high rate of pulses led to the government allowing their imports at zero duty.
The production of cotton, sugarcane and jute will set a new record in the current year, it said.
The output of cotton is likely to increase to 21 million bales in 2006-07 from 18.5 million bales, while sugarcane is set to rise at 315.5 million tonnes as compared to 270 million tonnes.
However, the production of oilseeds is expected to decline by 15.7 per cent from 28 million tonnes to 23.6 million tonnes.
