Who is the real Indian consumer? The one who believes the job market will explode or the one who fears it will blow up in his face?
The one who thinks this is a good time to shop, or the one who stashes away money in savings accounts and dabbles in the stockmarket? The one who is sure his wallet will be healthier this time next year or the one spending sleepless nights worrying about the state of the economy? The latest round of the ACNielsen Consumer Confidence and Opinions Survey seems to suggest that the answer lies somewhere in between.
According to the survey, which was conducted in October/ November 2006, Indians are the most optimistic consumers in the world - again. At 137, India is at the top of the consumer confidence index for the fourth time in a row, an all-time high: the June 2006 score of 131 was a point lower than the previous round.
The optimism seems to have extended across the world, but the global and regional scores seem decidedly mediocre when compared with India. While the global index has climbed one point to 99, the Asia Pacific region moved up four points to settle at 98.
Still, the Indian consumer's confidence doesn't seem to translate readily into a willingness to spend. The country doesn't figure in the top 10 spenders' list for any of the choices, except investing in shares and mutual funds, where it leads the world.
Instead, over half the respondents still keep their spare cash in bank accounts, while those choosing holidays and new clothes are in the lower 30th percentile.
Compare that with the Russians and the Thais, who score a relatively lower 107 in consumer confidence, but are top of the list when it comes to updating wardrobes (Russia's fashionistas lead with 74 per cent preferring to spend spare roubles on new clothes) and taking frequent breaks (Thailand, with 67 per cent).
Even if they keep a tight hold on the purse strings, Internet users from India turned out be the most upbeat on all issues polled. Roughly 505 respondents from the country were surveyed - just one less than the number last year - and all appeared overwhelmingly optimistic about prospects in the job market and the state of the economy.
And 95 per cent think local job prospects will be good in the next 12 months, while 88 per cent feel the same way about the state of their wallets - the highest scores not just in Apac, but across the world.
About 68 per cent think this is a good time to buy things they want or need, a climb back to the optimism of 2005. Here, India is just slightly behind Denmark - 71 per cent Danes believe it is the right time to go shopping.
The highs and lows
The ACNielsen survey is the largest bi-annual study of its kind. The October round was conducted with over 25,000 respondents from 45 countries, including 15 from the Apac region.
Unlike last time, though, when six of the 10 most confident countries were from the region, this time's high scorers represent all the continents, except Africa (there's only one country from Africa on the list, South Africa, which scored an even 100 in consumer confidence).
Norway and Denmark have maintained their positions as second and third most optimistic nations - their scores of 134 and 129, respectively, are higher than last time and significantly higher than the score for their region: 93.
But that's probably because Europe continues to have the dubious honour of dominating the bottom of the list: as in the last round, seven of the most pessimistic countries are from that continent. Austria, Italy, France, Turkey, Germany, Hungary and Portugal all score below the global and regional averages for consumer confidence.
The least optimistic, though, remains an Apac member. South Koreans are almost as gloomy about their prospects as last time, although their index has gone up two points to 56.
Close to 92 per cent expect job prospects in the next 12 months to range from not-so-good to unapologetically bad, while 85 per cent think this is a bad time to shop - the worst figures for the region. If you were thinking of launching new products and brands in these markets, perhaps a slight postponement may be in order.
What is the outlook like, then, for the rest of the region and globally? Not everybody is as optimistic as the Indians.
On the contrary, across Apac, 59 per cent believe this is a bad time to shop, and close to half the respondents don't expect much by way of job prospects and improvement in personal finances. Those percentages hold true, more or less, for the rest of the world as well.
The Americas buck the trend to some extent. While 70 per cent of Latin American respondents believe their money positions will be better a year from now, close to half their neighbours to the North are readying for shopping sprees.
The optimism in North America is surprising, given the general sentiment against President Bush, rising health and college costs, a weak real estate market and, of course, the war in Iraq.
Worry warts
Not surprisingly, war and terrorism is top of mind for North Americans, more so than anywhere else in the world. Over 23 per cent said it would be a major concern over the next six months, with 11 per cent giving it top priority.
The figures for worries over terrorism are identical (perhaps understandably, though, India is the most worried about terrorism, with 31 per cent citing it as their major concern). The world averages for war and terrorism are much lower, at 11 and 15 per cent, respectively.
Instead, the usual three worries take centrestage on the minds of netizens across the world. About 39 per cent cite the economy as a major concern; health issues give 34 per cent sleepless nights, while 32 per cent fret over job stability.
The order of priority is maintained across Apac as well, only the intensity of the concern increases. Close to half the region worries about the economy, health concerns dog 41 per cent and job security is an issue with 38 per cent of the respondents.
The Indian consumer's insouciance shows in the numbers: apart from terrorism, the country doesn't appear in the top 10 lists for any of the listed areas of concern. And it is in seventh place in the list of countries who have no worries at all, with 15 per cent Indians adopting a "what, me worry?" attitude. The most laidback consumers appear to be the Dutch: one in four says he has no major concerns.
Compared to the regional average of 45 per cent, just 27 per cent Indians - the lowest in the regional - name the economy as a major concern over the next six months; that's a 22 percentage point drop since the last round.
There's a slight increase in those worrying about their health: 30 per cent now, compared to 26 per cent six months earlier. But anxiety over job security is down, too, with only 31 per cent naming it as a major worry.
But, in a sense, even those numbers are high when compared with respondents' perceptions of their job prospects and financial situation.
Remember, just 5 per cent Indians thought local employment opportunities would be "not so good" in the coming year - nobody opted for "bad". And only 12 per cent felt the same way about the shape their wallets would be in a year from now. That optimism doesn't really tie in with nearly a third staying up nights worrying about these issues.
Shopping carnivals
So where does that leave Indian manufacturers seeking markets and customers for their products? Perhaps they should head for South America, instead. Apparently, there's a continent full of people there who are eager to spend good money on new clothes, holidays and parties, new technology and even doing up their homes.
Latin America's scores are consistently higher than the global average on most decisions regarding spare cash: even the region's consumer confidence index, at 102, is higher than the global 99.
Unlike Apac respondents who prefer (49 per cent) to rest their disposable incomes in savings accounts, less than 40 per cent of Latin Americans follow that practice. Instead, they prefer to spend their spare cash on new technology and out of home entertainment (42 per cent each), new clothes (40 per cent) and decorating their homes (38 per cent).
Equally significantly, just 8 per cent of South American respondents said they had no spare cash. Compare that with those living paycheque to paycheque in other parts of the world: 20 per cent in North America and 13 per cent in Europe.
Clearly this is a market waiting to be tapped. (For the record, Indian companies have already woken up to the region's potential: last year trade with Latin America crossed $5.3 billion.)
Like their counterparts across the world, consumers in Apac still prefer to keep their money in savings accounts, with holidays, new clothes and out of home entertainment following in no particular order.
Most consumers seem to be house proud, and Indians are no exception: 39 per cent prefer to keep their spare rupees to do up their homes. That's higher than the global and regional averages (26 and 22 per cent, respectively).
Indians are clearly still more debt and risk averse than the rest of the region. Compared to the Apac figure of 25 per cent, about 32 per cent of Indian consumers prefer to pay off debts and credit cards with any spare cash, while 52 per cent left it in the bank. Or are they?
An almost equal number (49 per cent) said they bought shares and mutual funds with their disposable income, up from 40 per cent in the last round. Clearly, the lure of the rising Sensex is still irresistible.
How it was done
The ACNielsen Online Consumer Confidence and Opinion Survey covers more than 25,000 internet users around the world every six months - representing a global online population of close to 1 billion consumers.
The survey was launched as an Asia Pacific initiative about six years ago, before "going global" at the of 2004. The latest survey, conducted in October/ November 2006, polled Net users in 45 markets.
In the Asia Pacific region, the countries surveyed are: Australia, China, New Zealand, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines. About 500 people were interviewed in each country.
Three questions are used to calculate the consumer confidence index. They relate to job prospects in the next 12 months; the state of the respondent's personal finances in the next 12 months; and, based on the cost of things and the respondent's personal finances, whether or not it's a good time to buy things he wants and needs.
The scale of answers to all three questions are: Excellent, Good, Not so good and Bad. To calculate the index, each response was given values: Excellent (200), Good (133.3), Not so good (66.6) and Bad (0).
Using these values, the average of the three questions was taken for each respondent. The index for each country was calculated by taking the index average for each respondent in that country. An index value of 100 corresponds to an average halfway between "Good and "Not so good".
