India's GDP to slow down to 7.7%

India's GDP growth is likely to slowdown this fiscal to 7.7 per cent from 8.1 per cent last year on account of soaring global oil prices, power shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, economic think-tank NCAER said.

"The downside risk to growth can originate mainly from high crude prices, electricity shortage and infrastructure bottlenecks," National Council of Applied Economic Research said in its latest quarterly review.

Factoring in an eight per cent rise in domestic oil prices, it said, "All three major sectors (agriculture, industry and services) are expected to have slow growth compared to last fiscal."

While farm sector growth is pegged at 2.1 per cent in 2006-07 against 2.3 last year, industry is likely to slowdown to 8.3 per cent from nine per cent in the year-ago period. The growth in services sector is slated to dip marginally to 9.6 per cent from 9.8 per cent.

"Exports are expected to remain buoyant but in dollar terms to decline from 24.7 per cent to 18.9 per cent this year. Imports growth may also decline from 31.5 per cent to 25.2 per cent during the same period," the report said.

NCAER said prices are expected to rise marginally compared to last year but the inflation forecast of 2006-07 stands slightly lower at 4.3 per cent from 4.4 last year.

"Inflation would depend on global crude prices and how much of it is passed to the domestic market," it said.