The Supreme Court judgment has ensured that no oil sector divestment can take place during the life of this Parliament. The government might not be able to push it through until up to two years after the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections as the ruling coalition is going to continue to be outnumbered in the Rajya Sabha for the foreseeable future.
A motion to amend or repeal the Acts by which the oil majors were taken over by the government requires simple majority in both Houses of Parliament.
The entire Opposition as well as several constituents of the National Democratic Alliance have earlier opposed the divestment of oil firms because they belonged to the strategic sector.
It is the Rajya Sabha where the government faces a really difficult task. The BJP claims that the ruling coalition will have a one-vote majority when Parliament meets for the winter session. However, the Congress claims the combined Opposition (including the BSP) will number 124 out of the Upper House total strength of 245.
This includes nominated MPs. This means the opposition will have a majority of two.
For the government the situation is not likely to change. In the hypothetical situation that the NDA gets a simple majority in the next Lok Sabha elections, a majority in the composition of the upper house will continue to elude the government till the next round of biennial elections.
Even then, because the NDA has a majority in so few state governments, it will be hard for it to get NDA members elected to the upper House. So managers say, the divestment of oil majors is as good as dead.
