Crisil is `cautiously optimistic' on India's GDP and expects it to post a 6.5 per cent growth in the current fiscal, compared to 4.4 per cent growth registered during the previous fiscal.
"There are no signs of major investments coming into the country, even as interest rates are expected to remain steady, while infrastructure will be one of the major bottlenecks during the fiscal," Roopa Kudva, executive director and chief rating officer, Crisil, told reporters in Mumbai on Monday.
The rating agency expects agriculture segment to post a robust 7.5 per cent, compared to the -3.3 per cent registered during last fiscal, and industry to post a lower growth rate of five to 5.25 per cent, as against the six per cent posted a year ago, she said.
Crisil expects the service sector to grow at seven per cent in this fiscal, in line with that posted during the previous fiscal, she said.
The GDP was driven mainly by exports during the previous fiscal and a rupee depreciation had also supplemented to this, Kudva said, adding, "The GDP growth doesn't seem to move to higher levels this year."
The delays in shipping of goods, which might lead to a fall in exports and an expected fall in revenue collections, would also affect the GDP, she said and added that a "feel good factor" would be exhibited by the economy in the country.
Meanwhile, Crisil launched a compilation of its rating criteria in a four-part series, in an effort to improve transparency and disclosure practices of its rating process.
The compilation covers the methodology and philosophy of ratings across a broad spectrum of issuers spanning manufacturing, infrastructure, public finance and financial sector, Crisil director (rating criteria and product development) S Venkataraman said.
On the overall stability, he said the agency's ratings improved in 2002 with an 87.6 per cent of non-default ratings staying in the same category.
