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India's GDP seen expanding 5.2% in 2001-02

India's gross domestic product is expected to grow at 5.2 per cent this fiscal year, the same rate it expanded in the previous year, a Reuters poll of 10 research houses showed.

Official estimates for GDP growth in 2001-02 (April-March) are 6.0-6.5 per cent.

However, independent economists and researchers feel growth will be lower as weaker domestic demand and decelerating global growth, weakened further by last month's aerial attacks on New York and Washington, neutralise the fortunes from a good monsoon season.

"We've revised GDP estimates downwards because we expect lower software exports after the attacks; and other services like hotels and aviation would also be hit," said Ajit Ranade, economist with ABN AMRO Bank in Bombay.

"GDP growth will be above five per cent because of better agriculture output," he said.

GDP growth has been slowing for two straight years. Growth ended up at 5.2 per cent in 2000-01, although policymakers initially targeted seven per cent and later lowered their estimates to six per cent.

The manufacturing sector is still languishing and economists say the services sector, which comprises half of GDP, will expand just about seven per cent, its weakest pace in eight years.

But policymakers are hoping the monsoon, which was better than normal this year, will reverse the slump in agricultural output and boost the consumption of two-thirds of India's billion strong population that depends on the rural sector.

The poll showed economists expect growth in 2002-03 will improve, as the global economy also revives, and predict an average 5.9 per cent growth.

The IMF, in a recent economic outlook report, said India's closed economy was relatively insulated from the global slump. The IMF forecast growth in calendar year 2002 at 5.7 per cent, higher than the 4.5 per cent growth in 2001.

Past GDP performance (percent change on previous full year)

1996-97	7.8 percent
1997-98	4.8 percent
1998/99	6.6 percent
1999/00	6.4 percent
2000/01	5.2 percent

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