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It pays to bet on war

George Smith Alexander

For the punters in Mumbai, the threat of war with Pakistan has proved to be just another opportunity to make money.

Mumbai punters are placing bets on not only the chance of an outbreak of war, but also the finer details: the probable date, the theatre of operations and a take on who will lob the first bomb. And unlike many politicians, they place their money where their mouth is.

The betting shows that going to war is by far the favoured option. The odds are stacked in favour of a war - if you put in Re 1 on war breaking out, you will get Rs 1.40 if it actually breaks out. These are pretty low odds, considering that at the races, even odds-on favourites get longer odds than that.

But the peaceniks have no reason to despair. The odds in favour of war are getting longer, as the possibility of an actual outbreak of war is perceived to be waning. It was Rs 1.40 to a rupee yesterday and now it has increased to Rs 1.45. Today, it was quoting Rs 1.48 by evening.

People are also betting on who will strike first, the actual date on which the war can break out and even the sector in which it will break out. Operators across the financial capital of the country are betting on the prospects of a war on and around January 12, 2002. And what's so special about January 12?

"Well, it can only happen after British Prime Minister Tony Blair's visit to India which is expected next week. There is a bit of numerology involved here, you know. One plus two is three and numerologists say this is an auspicious date to strike," said a source familiar with the development.

Punters' attentions have so long been confined to cricket, elections and the weather. War is a new entry on the betting scene. Sources say the total money involved so far could be billions.

"Now the threat of war is real. When the stock markets go to sleep, here is an opportunity to make money," says one upbeat punter. He even quotes a defence analyst who has said that India will now have to prove to the world that it means business.

"The West seems to be taking the build-up in the borders as just another ploy by India to bring pressure on the western world," the punter quoted the analyst as saying.

According to sources, there has been a frenzy of excitement in this brand-new market, with the tempo building up in the last few days. Liquidity is not a problem. Sources say part of the money has deserted the bourses to go into this market.

The satta network has always played a pivotal role in cricket betting. Normally, an estimated Rs 10 billion is wagered on an one-day international. However, for those eager to test their military forecasting powers, not everyone can get into the charmed circle. Everything is based on trust and the 'integrity of the gambler'.

This a closely guarded network, and unless you are introduced to the bookie by a regular punter, you cannot place bets. Rules are flexible as stakes change every second.

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