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April 16, 2001
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Indian economy's future appears bright: CII

BS Corporate Bureau

At a time when doomsayers for the Indian economy are aplenty, the Confederation of Indian Industry has brushed aside these fears, saying instead that the future appears to be bright and cheerful.

"The bleak picture being painted of the Indian economy is wrong. The strength of our fundamentals and the resilience of the system will certainly take the economy through the turbulent times that it is facing," the chamber said in a release issued on Sunday.

CII has based its optimism on a comparatively high GDP growth rate, a projected 18 per cent growth in exports, a substantial foreign exchange reserve and a controlled inflation rate.

But while admitting that the slowdown in industrial growth was clearly evident in the industrial production statistics, CII stated that the Indian industry was undergoing deeper structural changes. "These changes within industry were taking place in the wake of increasing liberalisation of the economy and the consequent increase in competition," it said.

The chamber said the estimated GDP growth of 6 per cent of the current fiscal was amongst the highest in the global economy. With exports growth expected to be over 18 per cent for 2000-01 and comfortable levels of foreign exchange reserves of over $40 billion that constitute more than seven months of import cover and over nine times the short-term debt, India's external situation was also wrong.

It added that internally, inflation was also under control in fact, it was declining. The impact of the slowdown in the US economy, as a recent CII survey had revealed, would also be limited.

The GDP forecast for 2001 for the OECD economies by The Economist ranged between 1.6 per cent for the US to 3 per cent for Australia. Against this backdrop, India's economic growth was at the least, steady, added CII.

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