Gulf War: Big Lessons For Investors

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May 11, 2026 12:14 IST

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History is rarely decided by who has the biggest weapons, but by who has the better process. The same rule applies to investing, explains Ramalingam Kalirajan.

Iran war: Money Lessons

IMAGE: US forces patrol near the Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska after it was boarded and seized by US forces on April 20, 2026. Photograph: US Central Command/X/Reuters

Key Points

  • Investing success does not come from having more money, but from having a strong and consistent process.
  • Emotional decisions during market falls can cause bigger losses than fund management fees or short-term market drops.
  • A well-diversified portfolio with equity, debt, and gold helps reduce risk and makes investing more stable.
  • Staying invested for the long term and continuing SIPs during market crashes can create better wealth than waiting for the 'right time.'
  • Smart investors act with discipline during uncertain times instead of waiting for perfect clarity in the market.
 

Power looks dominant -- until it fails.

When the US-Israel versus Iran war erupted in early March 2026, the world expected the overwhelming military and economic advantage of a far stronger coalition to force a swift surrender. Instead, the defending side sustained pressure against a far superior military force and absorbed the initial impact. They didn't rely on matching power with power. They relied on executing a masterclass in asymmetric strategy -- using efficiency, time, and decentralised systems to outlast a giant.

Regardless of how one interprets the outcome whenever the final outcome comes, Iran's strategy on display offers a powerful lesson for the modern investor.

For anyone dedicated to building generational wealth, this conflict is more than history; it is a profound lesson in human behaviour. A high income and perfect timing both feel powerful -- and both fail without a process.

The market always humbles brute force. Not immediately. But inevitably.

To build an unbreakable portfolio, you do not need overwhelming power. You need a better strategy. Here is how the tactics of this conflict translate into resilient wealth creation.

1. The Strategy of Asymmetric Cost

The History: The defending side deployed low-cost drone swarms to force their adversaries into a mathematical trap, exhausting interceptor missiles that cost millions of dollars to shoot down relatively cheap threats from drones.

The true cost of the war wasn't the weapons; it was the reaction to them.

The Application: Many investors focus entirely on the mathematical cost of fund management, assuming that going the 'DIY' route to save 0.5% in fees is the ultimate victory. This is a classic trap.

The Emotional Penalty: The real enemy is your own behaviour. Think back to the last market fall -- you checked your portfolio daily, felt the panic rising, and wanted to ‘do something.

A professional buffer protects you from the multi-lakh penalty of emotional investing.

The Step-Up Superpower: Income gives you capacity, but process determines outcome. You do not need overwhelming force to win; you need a process that works consistently over time.

2. The Mosaic Defence (Decentralised Resilience)

A Mosaic system doesn't just remove a single point of failure -- it removes a single point of decision. Your portfolio should be able to make correct decisions without you.

The History: When central leadership was targeted, the resistance did not collapse. The military operated as a 'Mosaic' -- a network of autonomous units that carried the mission forward even when the 'head' was incapacitated.

The Application: In investing, this means moving from decision-based management to rules-based execution. Each part of your portfolio should have a predefined role and a trigger, so it can act without waiting for your judgment.

Asset Class Decorrelation: If most of your money is concentrated in one sector, your whole portfolio is fragile. Equity grows, debt stabilises, and gold protects. These 'cells' must operate independently to buy you time. A managed portfolio needs you to be right. A Mosaic portfolio only needs you to have set it up correctly -- once.

Family Continuity: If your family's future is locked behind your daily decisions, you are one crisis away from a financial stall. Involving your spouse in the planning process ensures a seamless transition of control.

3. The Chronological Shield (Stretching Time)

The History: Facing a superior force that demanded a quick, decisive victory, the defence chose to stretch time. By extending the conflict, they turned the clock into a weapon.

The Application: Most investors don't lose because markets fall. They lose because they don't stay long enough to see the recovery. Compounding rewards time, not timing.

The Sharp Edge: Markets recover faster than investors do. Missing just the best 10 days in a decade can devastate returns. By stretching your timeline, you turn the clock into your greatest asset.

The Offensive Move: Keeping your SIP running through a 30% drawdown isn't just surviving. You are accumulating units at prices your cautious counterparts will never see again. That's time -- not as protection, but as a weapon.

Consider this: The Nifty 50 fell nearly 38% between January and March 2020.

By December, same year, it had fully recovered -- and delivered over 80% returns from the lows.

The investors who continued their SIPs and accumulated units will never see those prices again.

The investors who waited for clarity bought back near the top.

4. Grey Zone Operations (Acting in Ambiguity)

The History: The conflict was largely fought in the ‘Grey Zone’ -- a murky area of strategic ambiguity. Waiting for ‘absolute certainty’ was a luxury neither side could afford.

The Application: Investors constantly wait for the ‘right time’ -- seeking clarity on interest rates, elections, or global events. But certainty is expensive. Opportunity lives in uncertainty.

In markets, uncertainty doesn’t remove opportunity -- it redistributes it from the hesitant to the decisive.

Strategic Decisiveness: Your advantage is simple: the ability to act when others hesitate. Every time you invest during uncertainty, you are effectively buying the hesitation of others.

Process Execution: Execute this by strictly adhering to your SIPs, initiating STPs to move capital purposefully into the storm, and using disciplined asset allocation rebalancing.

5. Your Next Step: Upgrade Your Strategy

In volatile markets, most investors rely on power -- a high income or hot tips. But most investors don’t need better products.

They need a better system.

Serious investors don’t chase outcomes. They build systems.

Understanding the system is step one. Execution is what creates results.

If your portfolio depends on you being right, it’s fragile. If it’s built on process, it becomes resilient.

Disclaimer: This article is meant for information purposes only. This article and information do not constitute a distribution, an endorsement, an investment advice, an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities/schemes or any other financial products/investment products mentioned in this article to influence the opinion or behaviour of the investors/recipients.

Any use of the information/any investment and investment related decisions of the investors/recipients are at their sole discretion and risk. Any advice herein is made on a general basis and does not take into account the specific investment objectives of the specific person or group of persons. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

  • You can ask rediffGURU Ramalingam Kalirajan your questions HERE

Ramalingam K, an MBA in Finance, is a Certified Financial Planner. He is the Director and Chief Financial Planner at holisticinvestment, a leading financial planning and wealth management company.