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As expected, the results in Uttar Pradesh are pointing towards a hung assembly, paving the way for some unethical politics in the next few days.
If the Samajwadi Party wins around 155 seats and the Congress less than 35, it will still prove a difficult proposition for the former's chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. In spite of being ahead in the race, it will be left to party general secretary Amar Singh to seek the help of "other parties" like the Apna Dal and Kalyan Singh's Rashtriya Kranti Party and the independents. The Leftists already have a pre-election arrangement with the Samajwadi Party.
The resignation of Chief Minister Rajnath Singh has left the BJP out of the majority race and it is highly unlikely that the Bahujan Samaj Party can make it to the 202 mark needed to form a government.
In preparation for just such an eventuality, over the last four days the BJP has launched a whisper campaign with a well-thought-out strategy. The party has asked its cadres not to be impatient and to convey the impression that it is willing to sit in the opposition. All this so that Mayawati will approach the party for support to form a government, not vice-versa. The mood in the BJP is to let Mayawati do the dirty job of preventing Mulayam Singh Yadav from coming to power.
Amar Singh had said on Sunday morning that Mulayam Singh Yadav would meet Uttar Pradesh Governor Vishnukant Shastri to stake his claim.
According to a Mulayam confidant, Yadav will, of course, make that claim without the required support of 202 MLAs. He explaineds, "If the SP does not stake a claim as early as possible, the BJP can play a dirty game. We don't want the governor to say at any point of time that since the SP did not come to me, I entertained others. We are not leaving anything to chance."
The main fear of the Samajwadi Party is that NDA leaders could force the governor to accommodate a government "that is popular, and can give stability".
"NDA leaders, will of course, not recommend to the governor to consider, on a priority basis, the claim made by the largest party. And terms like 'stability' and 'popular' have many meanings in politics," complained the Mulayam confidant.
The Samajwadi Party insider also stressed that a dalit-Muslim combination could finish the BJP in the state. This is a combination far deadlier than the Samajwadi's current Muslim-Yadav, or MY, equation.
On the other hand, BJP vice-president J P Mathur and Union ministers M Venkaiah Naidu and Pramod Mahajan have already told the media -- directly and indirectly - that they would prefer the party to sit in the opposition.
A Union Cabinet minister commented on a lighter note, "If we form a government somehow with Mayawati as our CM in Lucknow, the first thing she will do is beat up our supporters who are flooding Ayodhya! On March 15, what would be the reaction of BJP leaders if the incoming non-BJP-CM handles the situation strictly? Mayawati has already told our leaders and voters: 'Hathi mast, baki past!' (The elephant symbol reigns, the rest are in the dust), we don't want that slogan to be a reality."
The minister explained that if Mayawati became CM with the help of the BJP and cracked down on the karsevaks who are expected to assemble in Ayodhya next month, it could damage the BJP immensely.
