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Sharat Pradhan in Lucknow
To the bitter end, the Bharatiya Janata Party leadership in Uttar Pradesh kept harping on its "strongholds" and "relatively weak" areas -- but even a cursory analysis of the results indicates that voters in the state, cutting across regional boundaries, gave the ruling party a unanimous and resounding thumbs-down.
Ironically, a party that captured the imagination of the people here by championing the cause of a Ram temple in Ayodhya has seen its strength decline, year by year, ever since the demolition of the 16th century Babri Masjid on December 6, 1992.
Today, a makeshift temple stands at the site. And the BJP's behind-the-scenes allies of the Sangh Parivar have been repeatedly making promises, and setting dates, to construct a full-fledged temple. And just as predictably, the party has continued to suffer.
This assembly election merely continued that trend, with the BJP being routed throughout the state. Even in the western part of UP, where a strategic alliance with Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal was believed to have put the ruling party on a good wicket, its tally was a mere 14 -- eight less than the number it had bagged in 1996 from this region.
Here, it was the Bahujan Samaj Party that cut into the erstwhile BJP stronghold, registering a gain of 10 seats.
In the adjoining Rohilkhand region that is also regarded as part of the larger western UP region, the party suffered similar reverses, managing to wrest only eight seats.
This gave the BJP a grand total of 27 seats in the region, against the total of 92 seats that went to the polling booth in the first phase of elections in the state on February 14. The severity of this setback can be gauged by the fact that outgoing Chief Minister Rajnath Singh had postulated a tally of 50 seats from these two regions.
The Doab region had meanwhile been pretty much written off, with the BJP leadership mentally girding itself for a setback in an area that accounts for 76 seats.
In the Doab, former chief minister Kalyan Singh had embarked on a vengeful mission of throwing a spanner into the BJP's works. Here, the BJP managed to win a mere 19 seats -- a loss of 16 seats -- with the Samajwadi Party and the Congress being the main gainers.
This outcome proved the point that Kalyan Singh had been making all along. The Doab has a sizeable section belonging to the Lodh community -- Kalyan's clan. And the former BJP leader had argued that if this backward community and region had thrown its weight behind the BJP, it was due to his presence.
Kalyan Singh's own newly minted party, the Rashtriya Kranti Party, failed to achieve any significant gains -- but as far as he was concerned, he had achieved his primary objective of "teaching the BJP a lesson".
Rather surprisingly, the BJP managed to retain its position in Bundelkhand, where it claimed seven seats. A performance that is all the more creditable when you consider that Bundelkhand has never been a BJP stronghold.
The Avadh region also produced a fairly decent performance by the ruling party. Against the 24 seats it had captured the last time round, the BJP and its allies this time captured 22.
The worst, however, was reserved for the eastern and northeastern parts of the state, accounting for 79 and 61 seats, respectively
Here, the BJP managed a grand total of 26 seats -- a loss of 25. And this becomes startling when you contrast it with the Samajwadi Party, which tallied an impressive 56 from the two areas.
Rajnath Singh attempted to put a brave face on things, and took upon himself "entire responsibility" for the party's debacle. He also spoke of not rushing to conclusions, but waiting till all the figures are in, then analysing them to see where the party had made mistakes, with a view to corrective action.
Others in the party hierarchy were in a state of shock as the results came in, though, by late evening, as news spread that consultations had begun in Delhi with a view to try to cobble together a BJP-BSP government, some life appeared to have returned to the leadership.
The next 24 hours will tell whether the BJP's optimism as a disastrous day wound to a close is justified by its ability to win for itself a voice in the new government.
