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February 16, 2009

More Kiwis magic

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

It isn't obvious to everyone yet, but New Zealand are in the process of putting together a truly excellent ODI team. They nearly defeated Australia in Australia!

After failing to win both their home ODI series (against South Africa, and now against New Zealand), Australia (63.97) have dropped to the third place in the Rediff ODI Rankings, behind South Africa (65.50) and New Zealand (64.29).

India (60.27) only gained modestly after defeating Sri Lanka yet again, but have a wonderful chance to surge close to the top if they can defeat New Zealand 'away' next month.

India could even go right on top if they defeat New Zealand 5-0 -- something Harbhajan Singh is confidently predicting, although Sachin Tendulkar doesn't appear to share the confidence of his Mumbai Indian (IPL team) mate.

Table A shows the current ODI rankings.

TABLE A: CURRENT ODI RANKINGS (as on February 13, 2009)
Team WI TI ODI RBI=
WI * 0.80 + TI * 0.20
diff: 31.1.09 -> 13.2.09 Ranking
South Africa 63.13 75.00 65.50 -3.63 1
New Zealand 57.86 90.00 64.29 -0.63 2
Australia 65.38 58.33 63.97 -1.39 3
India 55.89 77.78 60.27 +1.13 4
Pakistan 49.47 57.14 51.00 +0.33 5
Sri Lanka 45.04 54.55 46.94 -2.04 6
England 45.05 25.00 41.04 +0.08 7
West Indies 41.63 25.00 38.30 +1.25 8
Bangladesh 13.28 16.67 13.96 -0.09 9
Zimbabwe 14.24 0.00 11.39 -0.02 10

Looking at the 'difference' column, the reader might wonder why South Africa have inexplicably dropped 3.63 points. We have to confess this is because of a wrong entry in Table B that our reader Arpan Bansal spotted. We have now verified our numbers, and confirm that the tables are now error-free.

The corresponding Reliance Mobile ICC ODI rankings (as on February 13, 2009) are South Africa (125), Australia (123), India (120), New Zealand (114), Pakistan (111), England (108), Sri Lanka (105), West Indies (91), Bangladesh (46) and Zimbabwe (23).

Although India appear to be well ahead of New Zealand in the official ICC rankings at the moment, we must remember that the ICC rankings tend to be very volatile. India's 6-point advantage can quickly dissolve if they lose the first couple of matches in New Zealand.

Details

The Rediff ODI rating, now published regularly over the last seven years, is a judicious combination of every team's weighted index (WI) and tournament index (TI).

The WI, based on the most recent ODI encounters between every pair of teams as shown in Table B, is essentially a weighted average that considers the 'opposition strength' (because wins against strong opponents must be rewarded more) and the 'home-away-neutral' factors (because teams usually win more at home, and lose more playing 'away').

The TI factors in a team's performance in tournaments and series (and thereby seeks to better reward wins in 'big' matches).

TABLE B: ODI SCORECARD (as on February 13, 2009; used to compute WI)
 
  Aus Ban Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim
Australia   H  
  A  
N
    3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
3 / 4
  3 / 6 
  4 / 7 
2 / 2
  2.5/6 
  4.5/7 
1.5 / 2
  2.5/5 
  0 / 3 
2 / 2
  4 / 5 
  0 / 0 
1 / 1
1 / 5
  2 / 5 
2 / 2
3 / 4
  3 / 5 
4 / 4
  2.5/3 
5 / 5
3 / 5
  3.5/4 
4 / 4
0 / 0
Bangladesh   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 3  
  0 / 3 
1 / 4
    0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 1
  0 / 3 
0 / 0
1 / 3
  0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 3
  0 / 4 
0 / 6
0 / 2
  0 / 3 
  0 / 2 
1 / 2
  1 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 4
  0.5/3 
  0 / 4 
0 / 2
  2 / 4 
  5 / 9 
1 / 1
England   H  
  A  
N
  3 /7 
  3 / 6 
0 / 2
  3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
1 / 1
    4 / 7 
0 / 5
0 / 2
  1.5/5 
  1.5/5 
2 / 5
  2.5/5 
2 / 5
1 / 1
  4 / 4 
  2 / 7 
0 / 1
  0 / 5 
  3 / 5 
3 / 5
  1 / 3 
  3.5/6 
1 / 1
  1.5/3 
  4 / 4 
1 / 1
India   H  
  A  
N
  2.5/7 
  3.5/6 
0.5 / 2
  0 / 0 
  3 / 3 
2 / 3
  5/ 5 
  3 / 7 
2 / 2
    1.5/3 
  2 / 7 
1 / 3
  3 / 5 
  5 / 7 
2 / 4
  2 / 4 
0 / 4
2 / 3
  2 / 3 
  4 / 5 
3.5/ 6
  3 / 5 
  1 / 5 
3 / 4
  3 / 5 
  2 / 2 
4 / 4
New Zealand   H  
  A  
N
  3 / 3 
  2.5/5 
0 / 2
3 / 3
  3 / 3 
3 / 3
3.5/5
  3.5/5 
3 / 5
 5 / 7 
  1.5/3 
2 / 3
    4 / 5 
  0 / 5 
1 / 1
  5 / 6 
  1/3 
2 / 2
  2/4  
  0 / 0 
0 / 2
  3 / 5 
  2.5/6 
3 / 4
  1 / 3 
  2 / 2 
1 / 1
Pakistan   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 0 
  1 / 5 
0 / 1
  6 / 6 
  4 / 4 
2 / 2
  3 / 5 
  2.5/5 
0 / 1
  2 / 7 
  2 / 5 
2 / 4
  5 / 5 
  1 / 5 
0 / 1
    2 / 5 
  1 / 4 
0 / 1
  1 / 3 
  2.5/3 
2 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 4
3 / 3
  5 / 5 
  5 / 5 
3 / 3
South Africa   H  
  A  
N
  3 /5 
4 / 5
0 / 2
  2 /2 
3 / 3
1 / 2
5 / 7
  0 / 4 
1 / 1
4 / 4
  2/ 4 
1 / 3
  2/3 
  1 / 6 
0 / 2
  3 / 4 
  3 / 5 
1 / 1
    4.5/6 
  0 / 5 
4 / 6
5/5
  6 / 6 
0 / 1
  3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
3 / 3
Sri Lanka   H  
  A  
N
  2 / 5 
  1 / 4 
0 / 4
  3 / 3 
  2 / 3 
4 / 4
  2 / 5 
  5 / 5 
2 / 5
  1 / 5 
  1 / 3 
2.5 / 6
  0 / 0 
  2 / 4 
2 / 2
  0.5/3 
  2 / 3 
1 / 3
  5 / 5 
  1.5/6 
2 / 6
    1 / 2 
  0.5/3 
1 / 1
  2 / 2 
  5 / 5 
2 / 2
West Indies   H  
  A  
N
0 / 5
  0.5/3 
2 / 5
4 / 4
  2.5/3 
2 / 2
  2.5/6 
  2 / 3 
0 / 1
  4 / 5 
  2 / 5 
1 / 4
  3.5/6 
  2 / 5 
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 4
0 / 3
  0 / 6 
0/5
1 / 1
  2.5/3 
 1 / 2 
0 / 1
    6.5/7 
  3 / 4 
1 / 1
Zimbabwe   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 4 
  0.5/4 
0 / 0
  4 / 9 
  2 / 4 
0 / 1
  0 / 4 
  1.5/3 
0 / 1
  0 / 2 
  2 / 5 
0 / 4
  0 / 2 
  2 / 3 
0 / 1
  0 / 5 
  0 / 5 
0 / 3
  0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 3
  0 / 5 
  0 / 2 
0 / 2
  1 / 4 
  0.5/7 
0 / 1
 

The TI is currently based on a time 'window' spanning the last 12-13 months; i.e. the period February 2008 to February 2009 (see Table C).

TABLE C: TOURNAMENT POINTS TALLY (as on February 13, 2009; used to compute TI)
Team NZ vs E
Feb 08
CB Ser
Feb-
Mar 08
B vs SA
Mar 08
WI vs SL
Apr 08
P vs B
Apr 08
KitPly
Ser

Jun 08
E vs NZ
Jun 08
WI vs A
Jun-
Jul 08
Asia
Cup

Jun-
Jul 08
SL vs I
Aug 08
E vs SA
Aug-
Sep 08
A vs B
Aug-
Sep 08
B vs NZ
Oct 08
SA vs B
Nov 08
WI vs
P
Nov 08
I vs E
Nov 08
Z vs SL
Nov 08
NZ vs WI
Dec 08-
Jan 09
Tri-Nation
Jan 09
B vs Z
Jan 09
P vs SL
Jan 09
A vs SA
Jan 09
SL vs I
Jan-
Feb 09
A vs NZ
Feb 09
Score TI
Australia   1 / 2           1 / 1       1 / 1                   0 / 1   0.5 / 1 3.5 / 6 58.33
Bangladesh     0 / 1   0 / 1 0 / 2     0 / 2     0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1         1 / 2 1 / 1         2 / 12 16.67
England 0 / 1           0 / 1       1 / 1         0 / 1                 1 / 4 25.00
India   2 / 2       1 / 2     1 / 2 1 / 1           1 / 1             1 / 1   7 / 9 77.78
New Zealand 1 / 1           1 / 1           1 / 1         1 / 1           0.5/1 4.5 / 590.00
Pakistan         1 / 1 2 / 2     0 / 2           1 / 1           0 / 1       4 / 7 57.14
South Africa     1 / 1               0 / 1     1 / 1               1 / 1     3 / 4 75.00
Sri Lanka   0 / 2   0 / 1         2 / 2 0 / 1             1 / 1   2 / 2   1 / 1   0 / 1   6 / 11 54.55
West Indies       1 / 1       0 / 1             0 / 1     0 / 1             1 / 4 25.00
Zimbabwe                                 0 / 1   0 / 2 0 / 1         0 / 4 0.00

Our next update will appear after the New Zealand - India series in New Zealand in March 2009.

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