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September 12, 2008

India inching up

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

It always helps to beat Sri Lanka in their own backyard. However, India (55.30) should have gone for the kill after leading 3-1, but played poorly in the final ODI to take the five-match series 3-2.

Perhaps Mahela Jayawardene got it right when he said that India give up too easily. Actually Jayawardene and Sri Lanka (44.07) themselves have some soul-searching to do. Sri Lanka usually managed to stay in the top four of the Rediff ODI rankings because of what used to be a fine win record at home. They have now lost at home to India, and, what's worse, even managed to lose to England at home last year!

England (48.50) have climbed to the fifth place with Kevin Pietersen starting very well as captain, and Andrew Flintoff firing on all cylinders since his comeback. But they still can't pretend to have become a good one-day side simply because they defeated the tired South Africans without their formidable captain Graeme Smith. Remember how badly they were crushed by New Zealand earlier in the season?

South Africa (64.31) and New Zealand (58.67) retain the second and third places.

Australia (71.61) were hardly bothered by Bangladesh (7.85) as they won their home ODI series; they're probably more bothered that Andrew Symonds' career may be ending while still in peak form.

Table A shows the current ODI rankings.

TABLE A: CURRENT ODI RANKINGS (as on September 12, 2008)
Team WI TI ODI RBI=
WI * 0.80 + TI * 0.20
diff: 7.7.08 -> 12.9.08 Ranking
Australia 68.68 83.33 71.61 +0.65 1
South Africa 59.56 83.33 64.31 -0.44 2
New Zealand 58.34 60.00 58.67 +0.46 3
India 54.13 60.00 55.30 +2.05 4
England 45.63 60.00 48.50 +4.72 5
Pakistan 46.75 50.00 47.40 -0.03 6
Sri Lanka 47.95 28.57 44.07 -4.41 7
West Indies 36.37 50.00 39.10 -1.68 8
Zimbabwe 10.45 0.00 8.36 +0.09 9
Bangladesh 9.81 0.00 7.85 +0.02 10

The corresponding Reliance Mobile ICC ODI rankings (as on September 12, 2008) are Australia (131), South Africa (118), England (116), New Zealand (116), India (113), Pakistan (110), Sri Lanka (105),West Indies (95), Bangladesh (45) and Zimbabwe (16).

England's big jump, in spite of the earlier defeats against New Zealand, is a little surprising. This is chiefly because these ICC rankings renew themselves on August 1, and wins before August 1 suddenly lose a sizeable fraction of their "weight". We have never understood what is so sacred about August 1.

Details

To be fair, it is almost impossible to define a 'perfect' ranking scheme in any sport. However schemes that use reasonable evaluation criteria, and the most appropriate datasets, usually give the best results.

The Rediff ODI rating, now published regularly for more than six years, is a judicious combination of every team's weighted index (WI) and tournament index (TI).

The WI, based on the most recent ODI encounters between every pair of teams as shown in Table B, is essentially a weighted average that considers the 'opposition strength' (because wins against strong opponents must be rewarded more) and the 'home-away-neutral' factors (because teams usually win more at home, and lose more playing 'away').

The TI factors in a team's performance in tournaments and series (and thereby seeks to better reward wins in 'big' matches).

TABLE B: ODI SCORECARD (as on September 12, 2008; used to compute WI)
 
  Aus Ban Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim
Australia   H  
  A  
N
    3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
3 / 4
  3 / 6 
  4 / 7 
2 / 2
  2.5 / 6 
  4.5/7 
1.5 / 2
  2.5/3 
  0 / 3 
2 / 2
  4 / 5 
  0 / 0 
1 / 1
3 / 4
  2 / 5 
2 / 2
3 / 4
  3 / 5 
4 / 4
  2.5/3 
5 / 5
3 / 5
  3.5/4 
4 / 4
0 / 0
Bangladesh   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 3  
  0 / 3 
1 / 4
    0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 1
  0 / 3 
0 / 0
1 / 3
  0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 3
  0 / 4 
0 / 6
0 / 2
  0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
1 / 2
  1 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 4
  0.5/3 
  0 / 4 
0 / 2
  5 / 5 
  5 / 9 
1 / 1
England   H  
  A  
N
  3 /7 
  3 / 6 
0 / 2
  3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
1 / 1
    4 / 7 
1 / 7
0 / 2
  1.5/5 
  1.5/5 
2 / 5
  2.5/5 
2 / 5
1 / 1
  4 / 4 
  2 / 7 
0 / 1
  0 / 5 
  3 / 5 
3 / 5
  1 / 3 
  3.5/6 
1 / 1
  1.5/3 
  4 / 4 
1 / 1
India   H  
  A  
N
  2.5/7 
  3.5/6 
0.5 / 2
  0 / 0 
  3 / 3 
1 / 3
  6/ 7 
  3 / 7 
2 / 2
    1.5/3 
  2 / 7 
1 / 3
  3 / 5 
  5 / 7 
2 / 4
  2 / 4 
0 / 4
2 / 3
  2 / 3 
  3 / 5 
3.5/ 6
  3 / 5 
  1 / 5 
3 / 4
  3 / 5 
  2 / 2 
4 / 4
New Zealand   H  
  A  
N
  3 / 3 
  0.5/3 
0 / 2
3 / 3
  3 / 3 
3 / 3
3.5/5
  3.5/5 
3 / 5
 5 / 7 
  1.5/3 
2 / 3
    4 / 5 
  0 / 5 
1 / 1
  5 / 6 
  1/3 
2 / 2
  2/4  
  0 / 0 
0 / 2
  4 / 5 
  2.5/6 
3 / 4
  1 / 3 
  2 / 2 
1 / 1
Pakistan   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 0 
  1 / 5 
0 / 1
  6 / 6 
  4 / 4 
2 / 2
  3 / 5 
  2.5/5 
0 / 1
  2 / 7 
  2 / 5 
2 / 4
  5 / 5 
  1 / 5 
0 / 1
    2 / 5 
  1 / 4 
0 / 1
  2 / 4 
  2.5/3 
2 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 4
2 / 3
  5 / 5 
  5 / 5 
3 / 3
South Africa   H  
  A  
N
  3 /5 
1 / 4
2 / 2
  3 /3 
3 / 3
1 / 2
5 / 7
  0 / 4 
1 / 1
4 / 4
  2/ 4 
1 / 3
  2/3 
  1 / 6 
0 / 2
  3 / 4 
  3 / 5 
1 / 1
    4.5/6 
  0 / 5 
4 / 6
5/5
  6 / 6 
0 / 1
  3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
3 / 3
Sri Lanka   H  
  A  
N
  2 / 5 
  1 / 4 
0 / 4
  3 / 3 
  2 / 3 
4 / 4
  2 / 5 
  5 / 5 
2 / 5
  2 / 5 
  1 / 3 
2.5 / 6
  0 / 0 
  2 / 4 
2 / 2
  0.5/3 
  2 / 4 
1 / 3
  5 / 5 
  1.5/6 
2 / 6
    1 / 2 
  0.5/3 
1 / 1
  2 / 2 
  5 / 5 
1 / 1
West Indies   H  
  A  
N
0 / 5
  0.5/3 
2 / 5
4 / 4
  2.5/3 
2 / 2
  2.5/6 
  2 / 3 
0 / 1
  4 / 5 
  2 / 5 
1 / 4
  3.5/6 
  1 / 5 
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 3
  0 / 6 
0/5
1 / 1
  2.5/3 
 1 / 2 
0 / 1
    6.5/7 
  3 / 4 
1 / 1
Zimbabwe   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 4 
  0.5/4 
0 / 0
  4 / 9 
  0 / 5 
0 / 1
  0 / 4 
  1.5/3 
0 / 1
  0 / 2 
  2 / 5 
0 / 4
  0 / 2 
  2 / 3 
0 / 1
  0 / 5 
  0 / 5 
0 / 3
  0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 3
  0 / 5 
  0 / 2 
0 / 1
  1 / 4 
  0.5/7 
0 / 1
 

The TI is currently based on a time 'window' spanning the last 12-13 months; i.e. the period September 2007 to September 2008 (see Table C).

TABLE C: TOURNAMENT POINTS TALLY (as on September 12, 2008; used to compute TI)
Team SA vs Z
Sep 07
NW
Aug-
Sep 07
E vs SL
Oct 07
I vs A
Sep-
Oct 07
P vs SA
Oct 07
I vs P
Nov 07
NZ vs SA
Nov-
Dec 07
WI vs
Z
Nov-
Dec 07
A vs NZ
Dec 07
NZ vs B
Dec 07
P vs Z
Jan 08
SA vs WI
Jan-
Feb 08
NZ vs E
Feb 08
CB Ser
Feb-
Mar 08
B vs SA
Mar 08
WI vs SL
Apr 08
P vs B
Apr 08
KitPly
Ser

Jun 08
E vs NZ
Jun 08
WI vs A
Jun-
Jul 08
Asia
Cup

Jun-
Jul 08
SL vs I
Aug 08
E vs SA
Aug-
Sep 08
A vs B
Aug-
Sep 08
Score TI
Australia       1 / 1         1 / 1;         1 / 2           1 / 1       1 / 1 5 / 6 83.33
Bangladesh                   0 / 1         0 / 1   0 / 1 0 / 2     0 / 2     0 / 1 0 / 8 0.00
England   1 / 1 1 / 1                   0 / 1           0 / 1       1 / 1   3 / 5 60.00
India   0 / 1   0 / 1   1 / 1               2 / 2       1 / 2     1 / 2 1 / 1     6 / 10 60.00
New Zealand             0 / 1   0 / 1 1 / 1     1 / 1           1 / 1           3 / 560.00
Pakistan         0 / 1 0 / 1         1 / 1           1 / 1 2 / 2     0 / 2       4 / 8 50.00
South Africa 1 / 1       1 / 1   1 / 1         1 / 1     1 / 1               0 / 1   5 / 6 83.33
Sri Lanka     0 / 1                     0 / 2   0 / 1         2 / 2 0 / 1     2 / 7 28.57
West Indies               1 / 1       0 / 1       1 / 1       0 / 1         2 / 4 50.00
Zimbabwe 0 / 1             0 / 1     0 / 1                           0 / 3 0.00

We now await New Zealand's tour of Bangladesh in October followed by England's tour of India in November-December.

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