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July 7, 2008

India can't break into the big league

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

Another final. Another defeat. It's therefore no surprise that India (53.25) stay fourth place in the Rediff ODI Rankings.

After a thumping away series win in England, New Zealand (58.21) look comfortably settled at the third place. England (43.78) are seventh and can't climb out of their ODI ditch. They've tried everything, even refusing to withdraw the Grant Elliott appeal, but nothing's working for them.

For Sri Lanka (48.48), everything's working beautifully at the moment as they jump to the fifth place after capturing the Asia Cup.

Australia (70.96) overwhelmed West Indies (40.78) in an away series to confirm that they are indeed the world's best ODI side. Bangladesh (7.83) sink deeper into ignominy.

Table A shows the current ODI rankings.

TABLE A: CURRENT ODI RANKINGS (as on July 7, 2008)

Team WI TI ODI RBI=
WI * 0.80 + TI * 0.20 diff: 16.6.08 -> 7.7.08 Ranking

Australia 68.70 80.00 70.96 +2.67 1

South Africa 60.10 83.33 64.75 +0.08 2

New Zealand 57.76 60.00 58.21 +1.70 3

India 51.56 60.00 53.25 -0.23 4

Sri Lanka 49.88 42.86 48.48 +5.51 5

Pakistan 46.79 50.00 47.43 -4.08 6

England 44.73 40.00 43.78 -1.89 7

West Indies 35.97 60.00 40.78 -5.14 8

Zimbabwe 10.34 0.00 8.27 -0.07 9

Bangladesh 9.79 0.00 7.83 -0.40 10

The corresponding Reliance Mobile ICC ODI rankings (as on July 7, 2008) are Australia (129), South Africa (127), New Zealand (115), India (113), Pakistan (110), Sri Lanka (106), England (103), West Indies (97), Bangladesh (45) and Zimbabwe (18).

Sri Lanka lie below Pakistan in the ICC rankings even after winning the Asia Cup because the ICC formula cannot reward a big tournament win.

Details

It is almost impossible to define a 'perfect' ranking scheme in any sport. However schemes that use reasonable evaluation criteria, and the most appropriate datasets, usually give the best results.

The Rediff ODI rating, now published regularly for more than six years, is a judicious combination of every team's weighted index (WI) and tournament index (TI).

The WI, based on the most recent ODI encounters between every pair of teams as shown in Table B, is essentially a weighted average that considers the 'opposition strength' (because wins against strong opponents must be rewarded more) and the 'home-away-neutral' factors (because teams usually win more at home, and lose more playing 'away').

The TI factors in a team's performance in tournaments and series (and thereby seeks to better reward wins in 'big' matches).

TABLE B: ODI SCORECARD (as on July 7, 2008; used to compute WI)

Aus Ban Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim

Australia H
A
N
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 6
4 / 7
2 / 2
2.5 / 6
4.5/7
1.5 / 2
2.5/3
0 / 3
2 / 2
4 / 5
0 / 0
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 5
2 / 2
3 / 4
3 / 5
4 / 4
2.5/3
5 / 5
3 / 5
3.5/4
4 / 4
0 / 0

Bangladesh H
A
N
0 / 3
0 / 3
1 / 4
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 1
0 / 3
0 / 0
1 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 4
0 / 6
0 / 2
0 / 3
0 / 3
1 / 2
1 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 4
0.5/3
0 / 4
0 / 2
5 / 5
5 / 9
1 / 1

England H
A
N
3 /7
3 / 6
0 / 2
3 / 3
3 / 3
1 / 1
4 / 7
1 / 7
0 / 2
1.5/5
1.5/5
2 / 5
2.5/5
2 / 5
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 7
0 / 1
0 / 5
3 / 5
3 / 5
1 / 3
3.5/6
1 / 1
1.5/3
4 / 4
1 / 1

India H
A
N
2.5/7
3.5/6
0.5 / 2
0 / 0
3 / 3
1 / 3
6/ 7
3 / 7
2 / 2
1.5/3
2 / 7
1 / 3
3 / 5
5 / 7
2 / 4
2 / 4
0 / 4
2 / 3
2 / 3
0 / 3
3.5/ 6
3 / 5
1 / 5
3 / 4
3 / 5
2 / 2
4 / 4

New Zealand H
A
N
3 / 3
0.5/3
0 / 2
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 3
3.5/5
3.5/5
3 / 5
5 / 7
1.5/3
2 / 3
4 / 5
0 / 5
1 / 1
5 / 6
1/3
2 / 2
2/4
0 / 0
0 / 2
4 / 5
2.5/6
3 / 4
1 / 3
2 / 2
1 / 1

Pakistan H
A
N
0 / 0
1 / 5
0 / 1
6 / 6
4 / 4
2 / 2
3 / 5
2.5/5
0 / 1
2 / 7
2 / 5
2 / 4
5 / 5
1 / 5
0 / 1
2 / 5
1 / 4
0 / 1
2 / 4
2.5/3
2 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 4
2 / 3
5 / 5
5 / 5
3 / 3

South Africa H
A
N
3 /5
1 / 4
2 / 2
3 /3
3 / 3
1 / 2
5 / 7
1 / 4
1 / 1
4 / 4
2/ 4
1 / 3
2/3
1 / 6
0 / 2
3 / 4
3 / 5
1 / 1
4.5/6
0 / 5
4 / 6
5/5
6 / 6
0 / 1
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 3

Sri Lanka H
A
N
2 / 5
1 / 4
0 / 4
3 / 3
2 / 3
4 / 4
2 / 5
5 / 5
2 / 5
3 / 3
1 / 3
2.5 / 6
0 / 0
2 / 4
2 / 2
0.5/3
2 / 4
1 / 3
5 / 5
1.5/6
2 / 6
1 / 2
0.5/3
1 / 1
2 / 2
5 / 5
1 / 1

West Indies H
A
N
0 / 5
0.5/3
2 / 5
4 / 4
2.5/3
2 / 2
2.5/6
2 / 3
0 / 1
4 / 5
2 / 5
1 / 4
3.5/6
1 / 5
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 3
0 / 6
0/5
1 / 1
2.5/3
1 / 2
0 / 1
6.5/7
3 / 4
1 / 1

Zimbabwe H
A
N
0 / 4
0.5/4
0 / 0
4 / 9
0 / 5
0 / 1
0 / 4
1.5/3
0 / 1
0 / 2
2 / 5
0 / 4
0 / 2
2 / 3
0 / 1
0 / 5
0 / 5
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 1
1 / 4
0.5/7
0 / 1

The TI is currently based on a time 'window' spanning the last 12-13 months; i.e. the period July 2007 to July 2008 (see Table C).

TABLE C: TOURNAMENT POINTS TALLY (as on July 7, 2008; used to compute TI)

Team I vs SA
Jun-
Jul 07 E vs WI
Jul 07 B vs SL
Jul 07 SA vs Z
Sep 07 NW
Aug-
Sep 07 E vs SL
Oct 07 I vs A
Sep-
Oct 07 P vs SA
Oct 07 I vs P
Nov 07 NZ vs SA
Nov-
Dec 07 WI vs
Z
Nov-
Dec 07 A vs NZ
Dec 07 NZ vs B
Dec 07 P vs Z
Jan 08 SA vs WI
Jan-
Feb 08 NZ vs E
Feb 08 CB Ser
Feb-
Mar 08 B vs SA
Mar 08 WI vs SL
Apr 08 P vs B
Apr 08 KitPly
Ser
Jun 08 E vs NZ
Jun 08 WI vs A
Jun-
Jul 08 Asia
Cup
Jun-
Jul 08 Score TI

Australia 1 / 1 1 / 1; 1 / 2 1 / 1 4 / 5 80.00

Bangladesh 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 2 0 / 2 0 / 8 0.00

England 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 2 / 5 40.00

India 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 2 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 2 6 / 10 60.00

New Zealand 0 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 3 / 5 60.00

Pakistan 0 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 / 2 4 / 8 50.00

South Africa 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 5 / 6 83.33

Sri Lanka 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 2 0 / 1 2 / 2 3 / 7 42.86

West Indies 1 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 3 / 5 60.00

Zimbabwe 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 3 0.00

We now await the outcome of the England-South Africa and Sri Lanka-India ODI series next month.