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October 18, 2007

India still in a deep hole

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

Although the unexpected win at Mumbai in the last ODI has briefly lifted Indian spirits, India (39.43) still continue to be seventh in the Rediff ODI Rankings after losing 4-2 to Australia at home.

India are however within hand-shaking distance of sixth-placed Pakistan (40.66).

Australia (69.03) reign at the top, although they have slipped a wee bit after losing two games in an ODI series -- which doesn't happen too often with Australia. South Africa (50.33) are secured at the second place.

After losing 3-2 to England (42.65) at home -- which actually is a big surprise -- Sri Lanka (45.65) drop to the fourth place. New Zealand (46.56) sneak ahead to regain the third place.

Table A shows the current ODI rankings.

TABLE A: CURRENT ODI RANKINGS (as on October 18, 2007)

Team WI TI ODI RBI=
WI * 0.80 + TI * 0.20 Difference
10.9 -->17.10 Ranking

Australia 64.41 87.50 69.03 -0.41 1

South Africa 53.54 37.50 50.33 +0.09 2

New Zealand 51.17 28.13 46.56 +0.05 3

Sri Lanka 48.98 32.35 45.65 -1.29 4

England 45.96 29.41 42.65 +2.50 5

Pakistan 47.49 13.33 40.66 -0.34 6

India 44.02 21.05 39.43 +0.75 7

West Indies 37.40 26.67 35.25 -0.65 8

Bangladesh 11.95 18.75 13.31 +0.00 9

Zimbabwe 12.17 0.00 9.74 -0.08 10

The corresponding LG ICC ODI rankings (as on October 17, 2007) are Australia (128), South Africa (124), New Zealand (114), India (109), Sri Lanka (108), Pakistan (108), England (107), West Indies (102), Bangladesh (48) and Zimbabwe (17).

India (109) are therefore now fourth in the LG ICC ODI rankings, but if they had lost the Mumbai ODI they would have ended up with 106 points and been ranked seventh!

One must wonder how one win in a dead rubber can make such a big change; the real reason is that the ICC formula always tends to cluster a lot of teams in the middle of the table.

Details

The Rediff ODI rating is obtained by judiciously combining every team's weighted index (WI) and tournament index (TI). Based on the past data, a reasonable ratio to combine the WI and TI appears to be 4:1.

The WI, based on the most recent ODI encounters between every pair of teams as shown in Table B, is essentially a weighted average that considers the 'opposition strength' (because wins against strong opponents must be rewarded more) and the 'home-away-neutral' factors (because, most teams win a lot of matches when they play at home, but lose many more in 'away' encounters).

TABLE B: ODI SCORECARD (as on October 18, 2007; used to compute WI)

Aus Ban Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim

Australia H
A
N
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 6
4 / 7
2 / 2
5 / 6
4.5/7
1.5 / 2
4 / 4
0 / 3
2 / 2
4 / 5
0 / 0
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 5
2 / 2
5 / 7
3 / 5
4 / 4
2.5/3
5 / 8
3 / 5
3.5/4
4 / 4
0 / 0

Bangladesh H
A
N
0 / 3
0 / 3
1 / 4
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 1
0 / 2
0 / 0
1 / 2
0 / 3
0 / 0
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 2
0 / 3
1 / 2
1 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 2
0.5/3
0 / 4
0 / 2
5 / 5
5 / 9
1 / 1

England H
A
N
3 /7
3 / 6
0 / 2
3 / 3
3 / 3
1 / 1
4 / 7
1 / 7
0 / 2
0 / 2
2 / 5
2 / 5
2.5/5
2 / 5
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 7
0 / 1
0 / 5
3 / 5
3 / 5
1 / 3
3.5/6
1 / 1
1.5/3
4 / 4
1 / 1

India H
A
N
2.5/7
1 / 6
0.5 / 2
0 / 0
2 / 2
1 / 2
6/ 7
3 / 7
2 / 2
1.5/3
2 / 7
1 / 3
2 / 6
4 / 5
1 / 2
2 / 4
0 / 4
2 / 3
2 / 3
0 / 3
1 / 2
3 / 5
1 / 5
3 / 4
3 / 5
2 / 2
4 / 4

New Zealand H
A
N
3 / 3
0 / 4
0 / 2
0 / 0
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 5
2 / 2
3 / 5
5 / 7
1.5/3
2 / 3
4 / 5
0 / 5
1 / 1
5 / 6
0.5/5
2 / 2
2/4
0 / 0
0 / 2
4 / 5
2.5/6
3 / 4
1 / 3
2 / 2
1 / 1

Pakistan H
A
N
0 / 0
1 / 5
0 / 1
5 / 5
3 / 3
2 / 2
3 / 5
2.5/5
0 / 1
1 / 5
4 / 6
1 / 2
5 / 5
1 / 5
0 / 1
2 / 5
1 / 4
0 / 1
2 / 3
2.5/3
2 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 4
2 / 3
2 / 2
5 / 5
3 / 3

South Africa H
A
N
3 /5
1 / 4
2 / 2
3 /3
2 / 2
1 / 2
5 / 7
1 / 4
1 / 1
4 / 4
2/ 4
1 / 3
4.5/5
1 / 6
0 / 2
3 / 4
3 / 5
1 / 1
4.5/6
0 / 5
4 / 6
3.5/5
6 / 6
0 / 1
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 3

Sri Lanka H
A
N
2 / 5
2 / 7
0 / 4
3 / 3
2 / 3
2 / 2
2 / 5
5 / 5
2 / 5
3 / 3
1 / 3
1 / 2
0 / 0
2 / 4
2 / 2
0.5/3
1 / 3
1 / 3
5 / 5
1.5/6
2 / 6
1 / 2
3 / 4
1 / 1
2 / 2
5 / 5
1 / 1

West Indies H
A
N
3 / 8
0.5/3
2 / 5
4 / 4
2.5/3
2 / 2
2.5/6
2 / 3
0 / 1
4 / 5
2 / 5
1 / 4
3.5/6
1 / 5
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 3
0 / 6
1.5/5
1 / 1
1 / 4
1 / 2
0 / 1
6.5/7
3 / 5
1 / 1

Zimbabwe H
A
N
0 / 4
0.5/4
0 / 0
4 / 9
0 / 5
0 / 1
0 / 4
1.5/3
0 / 1
0 / 2
2 / 5
0 / 4
0 / 2
2 / 3
0 / 1
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 1
2 / 5
0.5/7
0 / 1

The TI factors in a team's performance in tournaments and series (and thereby seeks to better reward wins in 'big' matches). The TI is currently based on a time 'window' spanning the period October 2006 to October 2007 (see Table C).

TABLE C: TOURNAMENT POINTS TALLY (as on October 17, 2007; used to compute TI)

Team ICC Ch Tr
Oct-Nov 06 I vs SA
Nov-Dec 06 P vs WI
Dec 06 Z vs B
Dec 06 SL vs NZ
Dec 06-Jan 07 I vs WI
Jan 07 CW Series
Jan-Feb 07 Z vs B
Jan 07 P vs SA
Feb 07 I vs SL
Feb 07 A vs NZ
Feb 07 WC 2007
Mar-Apr 07 I vs B
May 07 P vs SL
May 07 I vs SA
Jun-Jul 07 E vs WI
Jul 07 B vs SL
Jul 07 SA vs Z
Sep 07 NatWest
Aug-Sep 07 E vs SL
Oct 07 I vs A
Sep-Oct 07 Score TI

Australia 4 / 4 1 / 2 0 / 1 8 / 8 1 / 1 14 / 16 87.50

Bangladesh 0 / 4 1 / 1 1 / 1; 1 / 8 0 / 1 0 / 1 3 / 16 18.75

England 0 / 4 2 / 2 1 / 8 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 5 / 17 29.41

India 0 / 4 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 8 1 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 4 / 19 21.05

New Zealand 1 / 4 0.5 / 1 0 / 2 1 / 1 2 / 8 4.5 / 16 28.13

Pakistan 0 / 4 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 8 1 / 1 2 / 15 13.33

South Africa 1 / 4 1 / 1 1 / 1 2 / 8 0 / 1 1 / 1 6 / 16 37.50

Sri Lanka 0 / 4 0.5 / 1 0 / 1 4 / 8 0 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 5.5 / 17 32.35

West Indies 2 / 4 0 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 8 1 / 1 4 / 15 26.67

Zimbabwe 0 / 4 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 8 0 / 1 0 / 15 0.00

We now await the outcome of the SA-Pakistan series in Pakistan.

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