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February 21, 2007

Australia still No 1!

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

Australia (65.90) have had their two worst weeks in ODI cricket in perhaps a decade; they lost three in a row to England, and then three in a row to New Zealand. But they are still at the top in the Rediff ODI Rankings. After all, they continue to hold both the ICC World Cup and the ICC Champions Trophy!

South Africa (56.26) are second, following a great home run of seven wins in eight games. This winning streak has taken them to the top place in the LG ICC ODI rankings. But South Africa surely know that it's a lot easier to win at home; something that the ICC ranking scheme cheerfully ignores.

New Zealand (51.06) are third, after arguably their best week in ODI cricket since the 1992 World Cup. But while they won all three at home against the formidable Australians, they lost all four to them in the preceding Commonwealth Series. So this home-away business really makes a big difference.

England (42.30) have made a very strong recovery, although they still lie seventh. The middle three places feature three of the four teams from the sub-continent: Pakistan (46.01), Sri Lanka (45.96) and India (43.58).

The fourth team from the region, Bangladesh (12.57), finally make their appearance in the Rediff ODI Rankings. Bangladesh have been impressive in recent months, comprehensively trouncing Zimbabwe (12.30) at home, and even defeating them in an away series. Bangladesh have snatched the occasional home win against both India and Sri Lanka, and not very long ago, they defeated Australia in England.

Table A shows the current ODI rankings.

TABLE A: CURRENT ODI RANKINGS (as on Feb 21, 2007)
Team WI TI ODI RBI=
WI * 0.80 + TI * 0.20		 Difference
1.2.07 --> 20.2.07		 Ranking
Australia 64.19 72.73 65.90 -8.46 1
South Africa 54.70 62.50 56.26 +3.89 2
New Zealand 54.10 38.89 51.06 +4.87 3
Pakistan 50.01 30.00 46.01 +4.35 4
Sri Lanka 50.50 27.78 45.96 +4.42 5
India 45.83 34.62 43.58 +4.25 6
England 45.93 27.78 42.30 +17.53 7
West Indies 38.39 45.45 39.80 +1.27 8
Bangladesh 10.16 22.22 12.57 -- 9
Zimbabwe 12.60 11.11 12.30 +5.24 10

The corresponding LG ICC ODI rankings (as on Feb 21, 2007) are South Africa (128), Australia (125), New Zealand (113), Pakistan (111), India (109), Sri Lanka (108), England (106), West Indies (101), Bangladesh (42) and Zimbabwe (22).

Details

The Rediff ODI rating is obtained by judiciously combining every team's weighted index (WI) and tournament index (TI). Based on the past data, a reasonable ratio to combine the WI and TI appears to be 4:1.

The WI, based on the most recent ODI encounters between every pair of teams as shown in Table B, is essentially a weighted average that considers the 'opposition strength' (because wins against strong opponents must be rewarded more) and the 'home-away-neutral' factors (because, most teams win a lot of matches when they play at home, but lose many more in 'away' encounters).

The TI factors in a team's performance in tournaments and series (and thereby seeks to better reward wins in 'big' matches). The TI is currently based on a time 'window' spanning the period Feb 2006 to Feb 2007 (see Table C).

TABLE B: ODI SCORECARD (as on Feb 21, 2007; used to compute WI)
 
  Aus Ban Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim
Australia   H  
  A  
N
    3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
2 / 3
   3 / 6 
  4 / 7 
1 / 1
   5 / 6 
  1 / 1 
1.5 / 2
   4 / 4 
  0 / 3 
1 / 1
   4 / 5 
  0 / 0 
1 / 1
 3 / 4
  2 / 5 
0 / 0
 5 / 7
  3 / 5 
2 / 2
   2.5/3 
4 / 7
3 / 5
   3.5/4 
4 / 4
0 / 0
Bangladesh   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 3  
  0 / 3 
1 / 3
     0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 0
   1 / 3 
0 / 0
0 / 1
   0 / 3 
  0 / 0 
0 / 2
   0 / 3 
0 / 5
0 / 2
   0 / 2 
  0 / 3 
0 / 1
   1 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 1
   0.5/3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 2
   5 / 5 
  5 / 9 
1 / 1
England   H  
  A  
N
  3 /7 
  3 / 6 
0 / 1
   3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
0 / 0
     2 / 3 
1 / 7
0 / 2
   0 / 2 
  2 / 5 
2 / 4
   2.5/5 
2 / 5
1 / 1
   3 / 4 
  2 / 7 
0 / 0
   0 / 5 
  0 / 1 
3 / 4
   2 / 3 
  2.5/5 
1 / 1
   1.5/3 
  4 / 4 
1 / 1
India   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 1 
  1 / 6 
0.5 / 2
   0 / 0 
  2 / 3 
1 / 1
   6/ 7 
  1 / 3 
2 / 2
     1.5/3 
  2 / 7 
1 / 3
   2 / 6 
  4 / 5 
1 / 2
   2 / 4 
0 / 4
2.5/4
   2 / 3 
  0 / 3 
1 / 1
   3 / 5 
  1 / 5 
3 / 4
   3 / 5 
  2 / 2 
4 / 4
New Zealand   H  
  A  
N
  3 / 3 
  0 / 4 
0 / 1
 0 / 0
  3 / 3 
2 / 2
 3 / 5
  2 / 2 
2 / 4
  5 / 7 
  1.5/3 
2 / 3
     4 / 5 
  0 / 5 
1 / 1
   5 / 6 
  0.5/5 
1 / 1
   2/4  
  0 / 0 
0 / 1
   4 / 5 
  1.5/5 
3 / 4
   1 / 3 
  2 / 2 
1 / 1
Pakistan   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 0 
  1 / 5 
0 / 1
   5 / 5 
  3 / 3 
2 / 2
   3 / 5 
  2.5/5 
0 / 1
   1 / 5 
  4 / 6 
1 / 2
   5 / 5 
  1 / 5 
0 / 1
     2 / 5 
  1 / 4 
0 / 1
   2 / 3 
  2.5/3 
1 / 1
 3 / 4
3 / 3
2 / 3
   2 / 2 
  5 / 5 
2 / 2
South Africa   H  
  A  
N
  3 /5 
1 / 4
0 / 0
   3 /3 
2 / 2
1 / 1
 5 / 7
  1 / 4 
0 / 0
 4 / 4
  2/ 4 
1.5/4
   4.5/5 
  1 / 6 
0 / 1
   3 / 4 
  3 / 5 
1 / 1
     4.5/6 
  0 / 5 
3 / 5
 3.5/5
  5 / 5 
0 / 1
   3 / 3 
  3 / 3 
3 / 3
Sri Lanka   H  
  A  
N
  2 / 5 
  2 / 7 
0 / 2
   3 / 3 
  2 / 3 
1 / 1
   1 / 1 
  5 / 5 
1 / 4
   3 / 3 
  1 / 3 
0 / 1
   0 / 0 
  2 / 4 
1 / 1
   0.5/3 
  1 / 3 
0 / 1
   5 / 5 
  1.5/6 
2 / 5
     1 / 2 
  2 / 3 
1 / 1
   2 / 2 
  5 / 5 
1 / 1
West Indies   H  
  A  
N
3 / 7
  0.5/3 
2 / 5
 3 / 3
  2.5/3 
2 / 2
   2.5/5 
  1 / 3 
0 / 1
   4 / 5 
  2 / 5 
1 / 4
   3.5/5 
  1 / 5 
1 / 4
 0 / 3
1 / 4
1 / 3
   0 / 5 
1.5/5
1 / 1
   1 / 3 
 1 / 2 
0 / 1
     5.5/6 
  3 / 5 
1 / 1
Zimbabwe   H  
  A  
N
  0 / 4 
  0.5/4 
0 / 0
   4 / 9 
  0 / 5 
0 / 1
   0 / 4 
  1.5/3 
0 / 1
   0 / 2 
  2 / 5 
0 / 4
   0 / 2 
  2 / 3 
0 / 1
   0 / 5 
  0 / 2 
0 / 2
   0 / 3 
  0 / 3 
0 / 3
   0 / 5 
  0 / 2 
0 / 1
   2 / 5 
  0.5/6 
0 / 1
  

TABLE C: TOURNAMENT POINTS TALLY (as on Feb 21, 2007; used to compute TI)
Team I vs P
Feb 06		 B vs SL
Feb 06		 NZ vs WI
Feb-Mar 06		 A vs SA
Feb-Mar 06		 SL vs P
Mar 06		 I vs E
Mar-Apr 06		 B vs A
Apr 06		 P vs I
Apr 06		 Z vs WI
May 06		 I vs WI
May 06		 E vs SL
Jun-Jul 06		 B vs Z
Jul-Aug 06		 E vs P
Aug-Sep 06		 SA vs Z
Sep 06		 DLF Cup
Sep 06		 ICC Ch Tr
Oct-Nov 06		 I vs SA
Nov-Dec 06		 P vs WI
Dec 06		 Z vs B
Dec 06		 SL vs NZ
Dec 06-Jan 07		 I vs WI
Jan 07		 CW Series
Jan-Feb 06		 Z vs B
Jan 07		 P vs SA
Feb 07		 I vs SL
Feb 07		 A vs NZ
Feb 07		 Score TI
Australia       0 / 1     1 / 1               2 / 2 4 / 4           1 / 2       0 / 1 8 / 11 72.73
Bangladesh   0 / 1         0 / 1         0 / 1       0 / 4     1 / 1       1 / 1;       2 / 9 22.22
England           0 / 1         0 / 1   0.5 / 1     0 / 4           2 / 2         2.5 / 9 27.78
India 1 / 1         1 / 1   0.5 / 1   0 / 1         0 / 2 0 / 4 0 / 1       1 / 1       1 / 1   4.5 / 13 34.62
New Zealand     1 / 1                         1 / 4       0.5 / 1   0 / 2       1 / 1 3.5 / 938.89
Pakistan 0 / 1       1 / 1     0.5 / 1         0.5 / 1     0 / 4   1 / 1           0 / 1     3 / 10 30.00
South Africa       1 / 1                   1 / 1   1 / 4 1 / 1             1 / 1     5 / 8 62.50
Sri Lanka   1 / 1     0 / 1           1 / 1         0 / 4       0.5 / 1         0 / 1   2.5 / 9 27.78
West Indies     0 / 1           1 / 1 1 / 1         1 / 2 2 / 4   0 / 1     0 / 1           5 / 11 45.45
Zimbabwe                 0 / 1     1 / 1   0 / 1   0 / 4     0 / 1       0 / 1       1 / 9 11.11

We now await the 2007 World Cup in West Indies.

We thank Amit Kothiyal of Cranes Software International Limited, Bangalore, for re-writing the computer programs required to include Bangladesh in the Rediff ODI Rankings.

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