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'The United States is not India. It does not turn its other cheek.'
Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Hi. I am here. Let's
start. Mallik : Hello Mr Chellaney do you think Osama will be handed over to China or Saidi Arabia? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Bin Laden, being the son-in-law of the one-eyed Taliban chief, is part of the Taliban family. However, he is a thorn in the Pakistani flesh as he has tried to make the Taliban less dependent on the ISI and Islamabad since he returned to Afghanistan in 1996. Pakistan will be quite happy to go after him to please the Bush White House and eliminate a 'troublemaker'. But eliminating him will not be easy. Nor will that be the main or major objective of the Americans. Farid : Mr Chelaney do you really think the US will be able to pull off what the Russains failed to do in 10 years? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : The United States is not foolish to get bogged down in Afghanistan, Soviet-style. Their strategy will be to punish and dislodge the Taliban, not to occupy a country that has a reputation of being a graveyard for foreign troops. jasjit : Is the Pakistani government exaggerating the internal threat it faces if it supports American action against the Taliban in order to improve it’s bargaining position vis-ŕ-vis the West ? While links between the state and militant outfits are undeniable, just how much influence does the state exert over these terrorist groups? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : The issue is whether the Pak government controls the jihadis, or the jihadis control the government. Either way, the use of Pak against the Taliban will trigger bloodletting in the Islamist camp. That is to our good. Three scenarios are possible in relation to Pakistan:1. Islamists out the Musharraf govt.2. Musharraf conducts a severe crackdown on Islamists and is able to bring them under control.3. Pakistan turns into a Lebanon.My guess is that Scenario 3 is the most likely. Amitava : Mr. Chellaney, do you think India will benefit in any way if US-Pakistan combine attacks Afghanistan? India seems to sidelined by US in it's fight against terrorism. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : The strikes in Afghanistan will involve more actors than just the U.S. and Pakistan. I suspect India too will be involved, directly or indirectly. Since some of the terrorism in India flows from the terror bases of the Taliban, it will help in the reduction of that terrorism to smash terrorist cells in Afghanistan. Maria : Do you forsee a war? or this all will be a big fizzle out affair? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Make no mistake, the United States is not India. The United States does not turn its other cheek. It will wreak havoc on all suspected networks and state sponsors of terrorism. We are into this for the long haul. manik : 2 aggressive, militaristic dictatorships, viz Pakistan and China, hem in India. Do you think the India’s pusillanimous response to Pakistan sponsored terror and Chinese provocation is a result of our democratic setup or is this “timidity” an ingrained flaw in the Indian psyche? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Manik, I think it is latter. Timidity is inbuilt in the Indian character. amitsethi : Should India also attack at Terrorist hideout in Pakistan? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I think if the United States decides on a multinational force, Indian elite units should participate in military strikes on Taliban command-and-control centers. Pakistan will come under heat in the second phase of the international counterterrorist warfare. In the first phase, Pakistan will be used to demolish its own creature, the Taliban. What better than to get the terrorists start killing each other! sachin : This question is rather hypothetical - if Pakistan is bogged down in a war on the Afghan front must India take advantage of this situation by striking at training camps in Pakistani Kashmir? Presumably, this would cause great consternation in the U.S Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Ultimately, India can employ the same logic and reasons as America to go after the Pakistani terrorist infrastructure. That is why, at this stage, India should play a lead role in the international coalition against terrorism and extend all help -- political and military -- to the United States. ChellaneyFan : Mr Chellaney , a question of a personal nature – I enjoy reading your incisive articles on issues relevant to the S.Asian region. Any news-sites or journals (preferably, foreign as I do not have access to specifically Indian journals) other than rediff.com and Kyoto Times of Japan that publish your analyses? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I am afraid there are no other sites. You can look the hindustantimes.com site though. Goofy : Why do you think timidity is built in us. After all, we managed to show the door to Pakistan the last time around when they attacked us in 1971 and 1965. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : The only man India produced in the last 54 years was Indira Gandhi. After that, we have produced only wimps as leaders. Hemant : Do you think India is playing its cards right? And secondly will the US ever achieve their objective? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : For a change, India has acted swiftly and corrected in responding to the fast-paced developments. By offering its naval bases, airfields and intelligence to the Americans, India has achieved three things:A. It has provided US forces a degree pf strategic flexibility.B. It has undercut Pakistan's bargaining capacity.C. It has ensured India will not be on the margins of the new coalition. jasjit : The US seems to be sending mixed messages on it’s future response to terrorism. Do you feel they will adopt a comprehensive approach to terrorists of all hues or only those that specifically threaten the US. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Others have asked the same question. Bush has pledged to attack all the roots of terrorism. He has pledged that the war against terrorism will go on for years. The earlier terrorist attacks in the US, such as the first World Trade Center bombing and the shootings outside the CIA headquarters, were linked to Pakistani terrorists who fled back to Pakistan. Washington has no choice but to tackle terrorism comprehensively. It was for India to keep the spotlight and heat on Pakistan terror bases. But Vajpayee has been too shy to name Pakistan since September 11! venkatraman : 1.If Osama surrenders is the war over ?2. Is Paks nuclear status gives more blackmailing power vis-a-vis the world ? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I think even if bin Laden surrenders, the Americans are not going to forgo retaliation. The American image has to be salvaged. If America cannot protect itself, its allies and other nations under its security umbrella will ask how it can protect them. So it has to repair the damage to its credibility. That means, in its eyes, striking hard against terrorists wherever they exist. Dileesh : What do you feel China's role will be in this new cenario. And do you feel Musharaff's porposed vist to China Symbolises? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : China's role has been one of duplicity. And like its client, Pakistan, China wants a price for supporting any US-led retaliation. China officially reconizes the Rabbani regime, as the United Nations does. But China has signed a defence-cooperation pact and other economic and political agreements with the Taliban. raj : do you think arab countries support terrorism in kashmir? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I don't think they are aiding terrorism in Kashmir. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been bankrolling Islamic fundamentalist activities in India. Those activities rear the forces of extremism and terrorism. Such funding needs to be stopped. sanket : Mr.Chellaney but Mr.Powell made it clear that "the war against terrorism will stop after all theUS citizens are safe". USA is not at all intrested in helping India fight the terrorism. it is just looking after its own intrest. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Sure. India too needs to look after its interests. It should support the U.S. if it suits its present interests, and if things turn out different later, it can halt its support. The cold logic of national interest should guide India. sourav : dont u think US is losing the initiative and sympathy that it had by taking so long to react Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : As time goes, the United States will face more and more troubling questions. And the initial horror and cries for revenge in the international community will begin to dissipate. Jay : Isnt India and its PM too soft in speaking out anything whether in clarifying its position or expressing its concerns, vajpayee has not even been able to say anything abot 116 attacks to Sikhs in Uk and US, isnt it a FACT that we dont VALUE lives of our people as US/West does for their people ? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Human lives come cheap in India. That is India's 'asset' against terrorism. The PM is too old and sick to lead a nation of a billion people, in my view. venkatesh : hi mr chellaney! Why aren't we taking a dignified line wrt to whole affair? Why is the PM calling for a solidaity day for WTc ? why not with terrorist victims of kashmir? Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Good question. We should express solidarity with our own victims of terrorism. But observing a solidarity day with victims of the terrorist strikes in the U.S. was also a nice gesture. rmani : Hi, Mr Chellany, Now that the opposition is crying against India getting involved in action against Afganistan. What do you think, Sonia Gandhi would have done if she had been the Prime Minister of India. (A possibility, come next elections) Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : The Congress Party is speaking in two voices. Sonia said on CNN that India should extend full support to the U.S. counterterrorist offensive. But some of her juniors are criticizing the government's offer of military help to Washington. Have you noticed how, in this hour of crisis, the Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. are speaking in one voice? viswa : when the war is likely to start Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Not before October, in my view, as the Americans are still preparing a war plan, building a coalition and tieing up operational details with regional partners like Pakistan, Russia, India, etc. Shiva : What about Chinese role. China has been fostering cooperation with Muslim nations during the recent past. Pakistan is China's key friend. China has been befriending Muslims as a low cost option to create problems for her strategic competitors - India, Russia and USA. The idea is to involve the energies of these nations in internal problems, while China herself focusses on improving her infrastructure, maintains her burgeoning oil supply requirements and modernises her Defense Systems to take on US at some point of time. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : Harish, too, has a similar question. In the Huntingtonian theory of clash of civilisations, Islam and China will be on one side in the fight against the Christian West. China, through its actions, seems to be living up to that theory. Brahma Chellaney, Security Analyst : I have to rush. Will talk again. Thanks for chatting. And goodbye.
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