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The Barnett Rubin Chat

So many questions! OK: I don't think there is any possibility of a coalition government. The only possibility is a netural technocratic government of transition, but I don't see very well how that would work. It would need a security force of some kind. The ex-king has said he will return to Afghanistan, but he has put so manyconditions that I don't think can be met. In any case, he does not want to pursue an active political strategy but to walk into a prepared situation. This will not happen. (Could be wrong -- I hope so!) I don't think there is much interest in Pashtunistan in pakistan. Wali Khan is of course against the Taliban because they are supported by the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i Islam (Fazlur Rahman), the party allied with the PPP that defeated him in Swat. They are the main religious opponenets of the Pashatun nationlaists in the tribal areas.

Sir: You are the world's most knowledgable expert on Afghanistan. If we don't ask you questions, who will we ask? Is the US just going to stand around and watch? Which way is the Afghan desk at Foggy Bottom inclined? Or do they not know their way anymore?

Dr Rubin,Taliban is reprensentative of Afghan militia trained in gunpower with little knowledge of political administration, of finance-aspects responsible for the working of any state. How is this going to affect Afghanistan future?

What are the consquences of a hostile regime in Kabul for India? The mullahs have already made their disenchantment with India very clear. They think India helped Rabbani and Co militarily. (Do you think that's true?) Do you think they will export Islam to Kashmir which is in much ferment?

Masoud had such a lot credibility. How did the Lion of the Panshir lose his influence? Was he compromised by the excesses of Rabbani?

I am not sure of the role of the ISI per se. Pakistani AFghan policy under Bhutto and Babar was largely handled by Babar and some other generals with the ISI in a subordinate role. It is not the same ISI as before. But ther was still a military-dominated Afghan cell. I am not sure who was in it. It is not ISI per se that is destabilizing. It is the formation of a new regional system with the independence of the CA states and the retreat of superpowers. Now there is a completely new situation in Southwest Asia and there are no rules of the game. Pakistan has a lot of responsibility, but it is not the only one. Iran has to share some of the blame. And of course the US and USSR/Russia for their policies during the previous war or pouring arms into this society (by the way, most of the arms are still Soviet-supplied ones -- they are not all from the othe side).

Sir, What according to you, should be India's stand under the circumstances....?

Most people are daunted by the Islam practised by the Taliban. How authentic is their Islam, condidering their ties with the drug lords of Afghanistan?

What are the five biggest mistakes the US made in its dealings with Afghanistan?

I have to go soon. I have a meeting. Just this and one more round. The State Department would just like stability in Afghanistan. Our Iran policy makes it very difficult for the US to play a positive role. We cannot meet with all the relevant parties, so even if it is not our intention, it looks like we are trying to encircle Iran. Their UN ambassador published an interesting article in the Wahington Post suggesting that the US and Iran had common interests in Afghanistan and should cooperate! But our policymakers have complaints about Iran in other arenas (especially the Arab-Israeil conflict). Though Iran has made some overtures there too that have not been followed up. It is a political issue here. Massoud's influence: Massoud was a great guerrilla commander, but he showed that he had no idea how to organize a truly national govenmnet of Afghanistan. Even his successes helped to undemine him. His ability to control Kabul with no other military forces helped to get Pashtauns to unite behind the Taliban. Like all the other leaders, he does not have a national following or resource base.

How successful was the CIA's programme to buy Stingers? How many came back? how many landed with the guys in Egypt and Sudan?

What are the consquences of a hostile regime in Kabul for India? The mullahs have already made their disenchantment with India very clear. They think India helped Rabbani and Co militarily. (Do you think that's true?) Do you think they will export Islam to Kashmir which is in much ferment?

Most people are daunted by the Islam practised by the Taliban. How authentic is their Islam, condidering their ties with the drug lords of Afghanistan? Do you hontesly believe the Taliban is no longer involved with drugs?

Do you ever see the Taliban compromising on the women issue? Could you give us an insight into the mindset of the Tailban and its leaders? Afghanistan has some very educated younger men, so are its cadres drawn from the unlettered?

PLEASE DR RUBIN, answer my question.... What according to you should be India's stand now, under the circumstances?

The Taliban's Islam is Deobandi Islam, heavily influenced by tribalism and also, very importantly, by the violence and social disintegration of Afghanistan, which is hard for outsiders to comprehend. Their ties to the drug lords are opportunistic. There are few other sources of money. If thei situation were stable, they say they would be willing to explore crop substitution. India: unfortunately there is little India can do that is productive. It is too aligned against Pakistan. The problem is to have a set of multi-lateral confidence building measures and agree on some proceudre for discussing regional economic proposals, etc. Let me say a few words about women ( I wrote this before, but it got stuck in cyberspace): in Afghanistan women have been symbols of legitimacy manipulated by all-male groups. No group has a good reacord in practice. The taliban have been horridly repressive, but they seem to have reduced rape. (need better evidence). The only positive development is the formation of an Afghan women's Network among some refugee women working for NGOs in Pakistan. They have some links to elite women in Kabul (like Siddiqa Siddiq, the archology prof who wrote the public letter criticizing the Taliban). The international community has to support them. I am sorry for the delay in starting at first, but unfortunately I really have to go. Thanks for all the interest. Bye.

What are the five biggest mistakes the US made in its dealings with Afghanistan? Do you believe by taking the battle to Herat, the Taliban's enemies are preparing to break their back?

Dr Rubin, just this lot of questions, please......

Dr Rubin Can't you take five more questions

Thanks Sir. It's been great talking to you.Thanks. Bye

Dr Rubin Will take five more questions

Dr Rubin, God bless you!

You have not given us your prognosis for Afghanistan? What will have happened this time next year? Or are even experts not that farsighted?

Dio you believe India assisted the Rabbani regime militarily? Do you think Masoud and Co will ever forgive Islamabad for its sponsorship of the Taliban if it captures Kabul again?

Will the Afghan crisis bring US and Iran together, especially as the US is keen to lay the gas pipeline, and will not be able to do so via Afghanistan given the situation.

Thanks, Doc. What about Dostum? What game is he playing? Will he end on the winning side again? Do you see his region becoming independent of Kabul? Is that the best way for peace in Afghanistan? Tribal hamlets ruled by satraps?

OK. I agreed to do one more round. This is it. US mistakes: sending mroe weapons than needed, taking ISI's word for who was doing what in AFghanistan, allowing Pakistan total operational control of our aid (not easy to do it any other way), and in retrospect not abiding by the Geneva accords and ending aid after the soveti wtihdrawal. Also our policy of isolating Iran, while understandable, has beenoverplayed and is now damaging our ability to play a role in defense of our own interests! I am sure that the Taliban's opponents would like to "break their back" by defeating them in Herat, and Iran has poured some resources into this, but I don't know if they will be successful. All I have is a few wire service reports from the region, no eyewitnesses or recent visitors, so I don't know what is going on there. Afghan attitudes to the Taliban: in this country among the refugees/exiles I have never seenthis degree of polarization on ethnic lines. Many Pashtuns (men more than women, but even some women) are very pro-Taliban, and the non-pashtuns are vey militantly anti-Taliban. It is becming difficult for me to speak to Afghan groups because of the polarization. In AFghanistan, I have to judge second- and third-hand. There is some such polarization there as well, but they have to live with the reality. In Kabul people seem to have hoped for order and been disappointed. I think there is deepening despair. This will have serious political repercussions in a few years and certainly in nanother genreation. The Taliban are the sons of the mujahidin who failed to bring peace and Islamic justice to Afghanistan. What can we expect from the sons of the Taliban? Be-iman-i khuda. Bye again.

What about Iran? Will it compromise with the Taliban? Will the Indo-Iran axis achieve anything?

Dr... Many thanks. Till we meet again.

Khuda Hafeez, Sir.

Pls Dr Rubin, just a few more

Help, we do need advice!

Help, we do need advice!