Will India See Poor Monsoon This Year?

A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet, in its first official forecast for the 2026 monsoon season, released on Tuesday, said all-India rainfall during June-September is expected to be 6 per cent below normal this year, at 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), due to the adverse impact of El Nino.

In its report, the agency said monsoon rainfall in 2026 is expected to average 817 millimetres (mm) over the four months, with a model error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent. It also said there is a 30 per cent probability of drought in the country and a 40 per cent chance of rainfall being below normal this year.

The State-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its first official forecast for the monsoon later this month.

An early lead, then a steady retreat

Skymet said June rainfall is expected to be 101 per cent of LPA, with a 40 per cent probability of each being normal or below normal. The LPA for June is 165.3 mm. In July, monsoon rainfall across the country is expected to be below normal at 95 per cent of LPA, with a 40 per cent probability each of being normal or below normal. The LPA for July is 280.5 mm.

In August, rainfall is again expected to be below normal, at 92 per cent of LPA. The LPA for August is 254.9 mm. The probability of August 2026 being below normal is nearly 60 per cent, according to Skymet.

In September, the all-India average rainfall is expected to be below normal at 89 per cent of LPA. The LPA for September is 167.9 mm. The agency pegged the probability of below-normal rainfall in September at 79 per cent.

In short, according to Skymet's early forecast, only June is likely to receive normal rainfall, while all other months are projected to be below normal.

Less rain, less room for growth

July and August are the two most crucial months for sowing kharif crops in India. Any major shortfall in rainfall during this period could severely affect crops.

However, much will depend on the spatial distribution and timeliness of the monsoon.

Experts said a cumulatively below-normal monsoon, if well distributed with few prolonged dry spells, is not always detrimental to agriculture.

A poor monsoon, however, could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.

Patchy skies, patchier fortunes

Spatially, Skymet said above-normal rainfall in June is expected only over the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Western Ghats. In July, below-normal rain is likely over North, West, and Central India.

In August, below-normal rainfall is expected across Northwest, Central, and Southern India.

In September, only a few parts of South and East India are expected to receive normal rainfall, while the rest of the country is likely to see below-normal rains.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff