Nomura lifts Nifty target to 25,900, citing robust earnings despite global risks

Nomura has significantly raised its March 2027 Nifty 50 target to 25,900, driven by robust corporate earnings and attractive market valuations, despite ongoing geopolitical risks and elevated oil prices.

Nomura has raised its March 2027 target for the Nifty 50 to 25,900, citing strong corporate earnings and attractive market valuations despite risks from the ongoing West Asia conflict and elevated oil prices.

The brokerage had earlier set a target of 24,900 for December 2026. The new target implies 11 per cent upside from the current Nifty level of around 23,287.

Strong Earnings Performance

Nomura India equity strategist Saion Mukherjee said aggregate profit after tax (PAT) for a universe of 256 companies rose 18 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the March quarter of FY26, beating consensus estimates by 12 per cent.

The energy sector, including oil and gas, power, coal and power equipment companies, accounted for nearly 60 per cent of the earnings surprise, while banks and non-banking financial companies also contributed meaningfully.

According to Nomura, the strong earnings were supported by a recovery in economic activity following tax cuts and a favourable monetary policy environment. Sales growth excluding financials and commodities stood at 15 per cent, although ebitda growth of 6 per cent indicated some pressure on margins.

Outlook and Risks

Despite the robust quarterly performance, Nomura flagged a more challenging earnings outlook as the West Asia conflict and higher commodity prices begin to weigh on corporate profits.

"Since the start of the West Asia war in end-February 2026, aggregate earnings for FY27/28 have been revised lower by 4 per cent/1 per cent," Mukherjee noted.

He added that consensus expects an 11 per cent earnings compound annual growth rate over FY26-28, which is broadly in line with nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Consequently, this implies limited scope for further expansion in the earnings-to-GDP ratio.

The brokerage cautioned that further downgrades cannot be ruled out if oil prices remain high.

Valuations and Catalysts

Even so, Nomura believes much of the risk is already reflected in valuations.

The Nifty currently trades at 18.1 times one-year-forward earnings, near the lower end of its four-year trading range of 18-20 times, it observed.

The brokerage expects two key catalysts to determine market direction over the remainder of FY27.

"We expect that a drop in oil prices and increased traction for information technology (IT) services from implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) by enterprises will be key catalysts to watch out for through the rest of FY27F," the report said.

Sector Allocation

On sector allocation, the brokerage continues to favour exporters with established global franchises, including auto component makers, pharmaceutical companies and power equipment manufacturers.

It also sees opportunities in financials and IT services due to attractive valuations and the potential benefits from enterprise AI adoption.

At the same time, it turned bearish on automobiles and consumer discretionary sectors, citing expectations of slower earnings growth, while downgrading cement to neutral because of cost pressures.

The brokerage also remains cautious on consumption-linked sectors, warning of slowing growth and margin pressure amid a constrained fiscal backdrop.