'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
A broker reacts while trading at his computer terminal at a stock brokerage firm in Mumbai. Photograph: Francis Mascarenhas/Reuters
Indian equity markets may remain volatile in the near term with the Iran-Israel conflict likely to become a 'localised' affair like the Russia-Ukraine war, analysts said on Thursday, advising investors to use this opportunity to buy quality largecap and select mid, and smallcap stocks.
At best, they expect the benchmarks -- BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 -- to slide another 2 to 3 per cent from hereon.
"The West Asia war may become a localised war, like the Russia-Ukraine war, with people accepting it as a 'part of life', " said G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research, Equinomics Research.
"We believe equity markets may remain volatile in the near term, correcting another 1 to 3 per cent till Israel's response to Iran's missile attack is unknown," added Chokkalingam.
The BSE Sensex, on Thursday, plummeted 1,832 points intraday, breaking the 82,500 mark in the process. The Nifty 50 sank 567 points, giving up the 25,250 mark during the day.
At close, however, the BSE Sensex stood at 82,497, down 1,769 points or 2 per cent. The Nifty 50 broke the 25,300 mark to close at 25,250, down 547 points or 2.12 per cent, making investors poorer by Rs 9.6 trillion.
The BSE benchmark has tumbled 3,481 points from its record high of 85,978 touched on September 27, 2024. The Nifty 50 has shed 1,027.5 points from its lifetime high of 26,277, touched on the same day.
In the broader markets, the Nifty MidCap100 index has fallen 1,901 points and the Nifty SmallCap100 index has crashed 688 points from their respective 52-week highs.
"Every aged bull run needs a healthy correction and this war-triggered correction has only escalated that. As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective," said Gaurav Dua, senior vice-president, head-capital markets strategy, Sharekhan.
He advises investors to bet on pharmaceutical and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies offering valuation comfort.
Oil on the boil
Brent crude price has rallied about 4 per cent since Iran's attack on late Tuesday.
While this triggered a sell-off in major oil-linked stocks such as those from the oil marketing, paints, aviation, and tyre sector, analysts believe the rise is insignificant, given that the world's top oil-producing countries are engaged in a war.
A report in Reuters said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allied members (Opec+) left oil output policy unchanged on Wednesday, including a plan to start raising output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) from December onwards.
"Consumption and infrastructure (cement)-related companies may feel the heat as the recent uptick in oil prices could lead to an uptick in their raw material costs," said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services, who also prefers information technology and pharma as sectors for the long term.
"Investors, however, may use this dip to buy quality names in the space," Nair added.
G Chokkalingam of Equinomics Research said over-valued and 'perception driven' small and midcap stocks may test the waters for some more time.
"Thus, investors with conservative risk profiles could hold up to 15 per cent in cash and gold, half of the remaining 85 per cent in largecaps and the balance in quality SMC stocks," he said.
From a technical viewpoint, analysts advise traders to adopt a 'sell on rise' strategy. They said long-term investors may use this correction to buy largecap stocks, where valuations have become attractive.
"With the Nifty breaching multiple supports -- such as the 20-day exponential moving average (DEMA) around the 25,580 level and trendline support near 25,350 -- the market could face further downside," said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president for research, Religare Broking.
"We are now looking at the 25,000-25,150 zone as the next support. While any rebound is likely to be capped in the 25,450-25,600 range, traders should adjust their positions accordingly, using any recovery to reduce longs and initiate shorts in weaker pockets," Mishra said.
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Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
