Who Will Win Sri Lanka's Presidential Poll?

'The Indian government is better prepared this time and has reached out to all contenders and not putting all eggs in one basket.'

India's neighbourhood has been in a state of turmoil for the past three years.

It all began with the messy and violent withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 in the face of the Taliban onslaught.

Two years ago, then Sri Lanka president Gotabaya Rajapaksa had to flee the country following massive people's protests, called the 'Aragalaya', over a severe economic, financial and cost of living crisis.

The unpopular Rajapaksa returned to the country only after several months, that too, it is believed, with a little help from his successor Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The scenes of protesters overrunning and looting the presidential palace in Colombo was repeated in Bangladesh last month after the India-friendly prime minister Sheikh Hasina also fled the country in the wake of student protests against her.

In the Maldives, President Mohamed Muizzu came to power in late 2023 on a 'India Out' platform.

In Pakistan, a widely perceived sham elections were held to keep Imran Khan out while in Nepal political leaders appear to be engaged in a constant game of musical chairs

It is against this backdrop that presidential elections will be held in Sri Lanka on Saturday, September 21, and India is obviously keen that a stable government comes to power, hopefully with a friendly leader as president.

The Rajapaksa brothers, Mahinda and Gotabaya, who have helmed Sri Lanka for a large part of the past 20 years, are widely seen to be China-friendly.

Chinese investments in massive infrastructure projects -- from airports, highways, sports stadiums and ports -- ballooned during the last decade. It is another matter that much of the projects are now considered white elephants.

Current President Wickremesinghe, seen as close to the Rajapaksas, has also in the past favoured the Chinese.

It was during his time as prime minister that the Chinese-built $1.3 billion Hambantota port was handed over to China on a 99-year lease

The growing shadow of China in India's underbelly was perhaps one of the main reasons why India was quick to come to Sri Lanka's aid when the island nation was close to an economic and financial collapse two years ago.

Inflation had shot up to 73.5 percent, the GDP was minus 7.3 percent and the government ran up huge debts.

"What hit Sri Lanka was a perfect storm because of a combination of factors," says Yashvardhan Sinha, former Indian high commissioner to Sri Lanka.

"Initially they tried to combat it themselves, but there was no way they could resolve the issues internally. Sri Lanka had no choice but to look for outside help. Who was the first responder? India," adds Ambassador Sinha.

India committed $4 billion in loans with easy payment terms. It also assisted in Sri Lanka's talks with the IMF and other creditors by giving assurances of support.

"They were in a precarious situation and Indian assistance came in handy. If India had not assisted, who knows the country may have gone under," says Ambassador Sinha.

"Ranil Wickremesinghe has stabilised the economy, but it has a long way to go," explains Ambassador Sinha. "Reforms are always painful and there is obviously discomfort and discontent among voters because of the austerity measures taken by the government to stabilise the economy."

India has contributed significantly to infrastructure projects at the Sri Lankan government's request.

For instance, India constructed a 150-bed hospital at Dickoya to help the plantation community. The project costing Rs 48 crore (Rs 480 million) was completed in 2015.

India has built schools and a cultural centre in Jaffna. It also renovated the Duraiappah sports stadium in Jaffna after the war.

The 1,500-seating capacity Rabindranath Tagore memorial auditorium at the University of Ruhuna, Matara, was built with Indian assistance of Lankan Rs 300 million.

India has a lot at stake from the strategic and security point of view as Sri Lanka is its closest coastal neighbour.

With the Indian Ocean Region hit by conflicts and piracy, a friendly country in India's southern coast would hold immense strategic importance.

"India is okay with any government coming to power so far it protects India's interests," says Atul Aneja, member of the advisory council at the Centre for Geoeconomics for the Global South,

"India's key interest lies in Trincomalee, one of the world's best natural harbours. Earlier the British used the harbour for the Indian Ocean. It is for our strategic interest," notes Aneja.

"If India gets privileged access to that it is more than a compensation to the southern Sri Lankan port of Hambantota, which China has taken over on lease. We have created an oil tank farm in Trincomalee, which is for energy security purposes," explains Aneja.

India's close historical, cultural and religious ties with Sri Lanka underline the importance of the elections in India.

With Tamils constituting 11 per cent of Sri Lanka's population, even its domestic politics can impact India, especially Tamil Nadu.

Although there are 38 candidates in the fray for the presidential election, by all accounts only three are said to be in serious contention.

They are Anura Kumara Dissanayake (55), a Left-leaning leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Sajith Premadasa and Wickremesinghe himself, who is contesting as an Independent candidate.

A fourth, Namal Rajapaksa, Mahinda's son, is also in the conversation, but is not considered a major force. Most observers believe he is only testing the waters this year, the family's main target is the 2029 election.

"We have good relations with Wickremesinghe and Premadasa. I think the Indian government is better prepared this time and has reached out to all contenders and not putting all eggs in one basket," says Professor Ajay Darshan Behra, head of the department of international relations, Jamia Millia Islamia.

"There may be slight apprehensions about Anura given the past history of the JVP, which is anti-Indianism, anti-Tamil and Sinhala chauvinism. They see Tamils as the fifth column of India. But even if it is an unexpected result and Anura wins, it should not create a problem," says Professor Behra.

In Ambassador Sinha's assessment, Anura is the one to watch out for in the election.

"Anura is seen as a dark horse," says the ambassador. "His party is not an electoral force, it has only three members in Parliament, but he is likely to attract those voters who want change. The others are those who have been around for some time and been part of the system.

"Sajith was a minister earlier. So, in my view Anura is the candidate to watch out for," the ambassador adds.

"As far as Namal is concerned I think the Rajapaksas have put him up as a trial balloon to see whether they still find favour with the voters, especially in the deep south like Hambantota, which has been their base," observes Ambassador Sinha

In July last year, Wickremesinghe held extensive talks with Prime Minister Narendra D Modi during a two-day visit to New Delhi. He was present AT Modi's swearing in ceremony this June.

In February, Anura met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit K Doval. He had come to Delhi at the Indian government's invitation.

'Pleased to meet Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Leader of NPP and JVP of Sri Lanka this morning. A good discussion on our bilateral relationship and the mutual benefits from its further deepening.' Jaishankar tweeted.

'Also spoke about Sri Lanka's economic challenges and the path ahead. India, with its Neighbourhood First and SAGAR policies will always be a reliable friend and trusted partner of Sri Lanka.'

Even as India keeps a close watch on the elections, there are challenges. Like with all of its neighbours, Sri Lanka also views India as a big power in its vicinity.

Even the Sri Lankan public is suspicious. While most Sri Lankans are thankful to India for its timely help two years ago, they suspect a motive behind the assistance.

During the Aragalaya, many protesters shouted anti-India slogans.

Dispelling these doubts and quelling the big brother fears will require deft diplomatic intervention.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com