Rajasthan: Can Congress Prevent BJP Clean Sweep?

The BJP is far more prepared than the Congress as their pool of prospective candidates is much bigger, reports Prakash Bhandari.

During a recent visit to Rajasthan to launch the Bharatiya Janata Party's Lok Sabha campaign, Amit Shah called upon BJP workers to prepare themselves for a hat-trick by repeating the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha election results, when the party won all 25 seats in the state.

On Saturday, March 2, 2024, the BJP announced candidates from 15 seats in Rajasthan for the Lok Sabha elections.

'This time, if the party repeats its performances of the last two Lok Sabha elections, it would help in achieving the dream of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of "Is baar 400 paar" (this time, get over 400 seats),' Shah told a cheering crowd in Udaipur and Bikaner.

At the Udaipur rally, among those who shared the dais with Shah was a tall leader of the tribals from the Vaagad region of Banswara and Dungarpur on the borders of Gujarat.

Four-time Congress MLA and a former member of the Lok Sabha and a cabinet minister in the erstwhile Ashok Gehlot government, Mahendrajit Singh Malviya, who won the recent state election from Bagidora, joined the BJP after resigning as a Congress MLA. He has been rewarded with a nomination from the Banswara ST constituency.

The Congress is facing an exodus of sorts each day and the party is finding it tough to field 25 formidable candidates for the Lok Sabha election.

Three-time chief minister Ashok Gehlot, former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot, former speaker C P Joshi, former minister and sitting Congress MLA Shanti Dhariwal and other MLAs and former ministers have declined to contest the Lok Sabha election.

The Pradesh Congress Committee has shortlisted several names for the 25 Lok Sabha seats. This includes the Tonk-Sawaimadhopur seat from where sitting Congress MLA and former director general of police Harish Meena will contest.

There is speculation that Vaibhav Gehlot, Ashok Gehlot's son, may contest the Jalore seat.

In 2019, Vaibhav contested from Jodhpur, his hometown, against Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and lost by 200,000 votes. Yet, he is more spirited than his father and is ready to contest.

"But those who have been shortlisted are the ones who either lost the recent elections or are sitting Congress MLAs. They have not consented to their candidature. The senior leaders are in no mood to contest, given the uncertainty that prevails within the Congress," says Ram Narayan Meena, former deputy speaker.

"In Rajasthan, the electoral politics is bipolar and no party other than the ruling BJP and the Congress have any significant presence," Meena adds.

"The Congress, which has worked out alliances in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh with the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, will have to go it alone in Rajasthan, with even the Bahujan Samaj Party opting to fight alone," Meena points out.

"The Left parties in the state have a small presence in the northern part in Bikaner division. Fielding formidable candidates in all 25 constituencies is a tough task that the Congress is facing," explains Meena.

The party suffered a rude jolt with Mahendrajit Malviya joining the BJP. The Congress was prepared to field him from the Banswara-Dungarpur seat as he was a member of the Congress Working Committee.

But Malviya was reportedly hurt when he was not made the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly, and the party preferred a Dalit face -- Tikaram Jully -- for the post.

Malviya was assured a Lok Sabha ticket by the BJP and he is keen on being active in national politics since, he feels, as a senior tribal leader he has a better scope in the BJP than in the Congress.

'I was hurt when the Congress took a stand not to attend the pran prastishtha of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. The party did not allow me to go to Ayodhya as an individual,' Malviya said after joining the BJP.

'It was a very sensitive issue where the party opted for a wrong stand. Rahul Gandhi should have chosen to start his Nyay Yatra from Ayodhya,' Malviya added.

'It was then that I decided to leave the party. For me it was a homecoming as I had started my political career with the BJP Yuva Morcha and won the panchayat election. My joining the BJP will ensure victory for the party in three reserved seats for tribals,' Malviya stated.

'The Congress has its own principles and policies and it cannot bow to the pressures of individuals. Malviya left the party on its own and we have no regrets. The party would still do well in the three tribal seats,' Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee President Govind Singh Dotasra said in response.

The Congress may work out an agreement with the Bharat Adivasi Party for the two tribal seats of Banswara-Dungarpur and Udaipur.

In southern Rajasthan, there are 14 assembly seats reserved for the scheduled tribes.

In the Banswara-Dungarpur Lok Sabha seat, there are nine assembly segments, where the BJP could win only two seats.

An alliance between the Congress and the Bharat Adivasi Party could prove to be effective and this would help in stopping the split of votes.

Congress leaders are upbeat as the party gained a lead in the six Lok Sabha segments in the Vidhan Sabha elections.

In two Lok Sabha segments, the party led in the assembly segments over the BJP by over one lakh votes and in two other segments, it commanded a lead of over 50,000 votes.

"These indicators show that the Congress could win at least five-six out of the 25 seats to prevent a clean sweep by the BJP. But a lot of efforts will have to be made," says Om Saini, a veteran political pbserver.

"The BJP had fielded two sitting Lok Sabha members -- Bhagirath Choudhry (Ajmer) and Devji Patel (Jalore) -- in the assembly elections, but both of them lost their seats," Saini adds.

Meanwhile, the BJP is likely to field some new candidates as three of its sitting MPs -- Deputy Chief Minister Diya Kumari (Rajasamand), Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore (Jaipur rural) and Baba Balaknath (Alwar) -- have won the assembly elections and relinquished their Lok Sabha memberships.

Of the three seats, only Alwar has been included in the BJP's first list, with organisation strongman and Rajya Sabha member Bhupender Yadav being nominated.

The BJP is far more prepared than the Congress as their pool of prospective candidates is much bigger.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com