Can Amit Thackeray Revive The MNS?

'If you look at the average age of all our candidates, you will notice that their average age is between 35 and 40. It is a kind of revolution that the MNS is bringing in Maharashtra.'

Since Raj Thackeray founded the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena in 2006, breaking away from the Shiv Sena, the party quickly positioned itself as a disruptor in Maharashtra's political landscape only to fritter away the electoral gains it made in the 2009 assembly election with 13 MLAs in its kitty.

By 2019, just one of its candidates won the assembly election.

And now in 2024, after being in the political wilderness for almost a decade, the party has come up with a fresh strategy and a fresh face to regain its fleeting dominance in the state's politics.

The Engine's Roar And The Trundle

In the 2009 Maharashtra assembly elections, MNS stunned everyone, securing 13 seats, which solidified Raj Thackeray's charisma and the party's appeal among Marathi-speaking urban voters.

Yet, the decade that followed was marked by a steady decline in the MNS's influence, as it lost ground to rivals and struggled to retain its initial support.

In the last assembly election in 2019, the MNS could secure a single seat, a steady decline that made many a political observer write the MNS's epitaph. But with Amit's entry into the electoral arena, the party is hoping to revive its dwindling fortunes.

According to senior MNS leaders, this dramatic fall resulted from inconsistent messaging, ineffective organisational structures, and a lack of clear direction for voters.

As the 2024 elections approach, many believe that Amit's debut could be the catalyst for an MNS revival, injecting youthful energy and hope for reclaiming lost ground across Maharashtra.

The MNS was born out of a dramatic split within the Thackeray family in 2006 when Raj Thackeray, Shiv Sena founder and supremo Bal Thackeray's nephew, parted ways with the party. He then promised to represent the 'Marathi manoos,' Maharashtra's Marathi-speaking population, who had long supported Bal Thackeray's Shiv Sena and made it a formidable force in the state.

Through its decades-long dominance in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation since 1985, the Shiv Sena had become synonymous with the Marathi cause, particularly in Mumbai. The MNS's strong focus on Marathi issues initially helped it carve out a niche for itself, with Raj Thackeray's charisma drawing in middle-class Marathi voters in cities like Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, and Pune.

In the party's early years, the MNS emerged as a formidable challenger to both the Shiv Sena and larger state parties like the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party. However, by the 2014 elections, the party's inconsistent stance on major issues had alienated its base. Raj's vacillating approach -- one day endorsing Prime Minister Narendra D Modi and the next day denouncing him -- created confusion among supporters, diminishing the MNS's appeal.

The constant change in the party's symbols, slogans, and ideological narratives further aggravated this issue.

"We failed to maintain a singular ideological stance," admits a senior MNS leader, who observed that the MNS kept "shooting in the dark" due to its lack of a unified, Marathi-centric narrative.

"The MNS leadership often shifted focus between Marathi identity politics and broader national issues, but the strategy failed to create a lasting connection with the Maharashtrian electorate," he rues.

Amit Thackeray's Entry and the Hopes for a Revival

With Amit's entry, the MNS hopes to craft a fresh image that combines Raj Thackeray's fiery, aggressive, appeal with a more pragmatic, issue-based approach.

"Now that Amit saheb has decided to jump into the fray, hopefully, Raj saheb will come out with a comprehensive plan to create a narrative that will help distinguish the party in Maharashtra, especially in its urban towns," hopes the senior MNS leader.

Amit, young and untainted by the controversies surrounding the MNS, is seen as a youth icon who could appeal to both loyalists and the younger Marathi-speaking population.

One major weakness of the MNS has been its lack of grassroots organisation, a stark contrast to the Shiv Sena's deeply embedded local networks that revolve around the Shiv Sena shakhas.

Unlike the Shiv Sena, which boasts a vast cadre of grassroots leaders and workers, the MNS has largely remained a party centred around Raj Thackeray's personal charisma.

"We relied too much on Raj Thackeray's charisma. We did not develop a strong second-rung local leadership that could connect with the people on the ground. This cost us heavily since our birth in 2006, but with Amit's entry, 2024 could be a different game," notes a party insider.

This flaw is something Amit's campaign aims to rectify by focusing on creating a locally connected young network of leaders.

For years, the MNS was associated with aggressive street politics that often alienated certain groups. Its anti-North Indian stance and street demonstrations were initially attention-grabbing, but ultimately failed to evolve into a constructive agenda. "People became tired of our aggression. They wanted real solutions, not just protests," says the party insider.

The MNS's failure to expand its reach beyond the Marathi-speaking population also limited its appeal. With an increasingly diverse voter base in Maharashtra, appealing to rural and non-Marathi communities became crucial.

"The MNS did not engage with non-Marathi communities effectively," says a political observer, adding that the Shiv Sena capitalised on Hindutva to consolidate votes across communities while the MNS remained strait-jacketed in urban Marathi-speaking pockets.

With this in mind, Amit's campaign will focus on localised, development-oriented issues that matter to Maharashtra's urban youth and families.

"The people of Maharashtra want better infrastructure, affordable housing, and solutions to the problems they face in their daily lives," remarks a senior MNS strategist. "Amit is expected to prioritise governance and development, aiming to bring sustainable solutions to urban problems," says he.

"We trust the Maharashtrian youth has the potential to take the state to unparalleled heights in terms of the state's development and progress. We are a party of young people and leaders. The youth today is fed up of the political drama in the state and how that has led to development taking a backstage," says Vagheesh Saraswat, general secretary, MNS.

"Today, Maharashtra politics has become like an IPL game. Like players often change their teams and play for the highest bidder, leaders these days keep changing political parties and their fortunes," adds Saraswat.

The Y-factor And Amit's Debut

"There is a huge craze for Amit among young voters and it was on their insistence and demand that he finds his name in the MNS list. It is their wish to have one of them elected to the assembly," says Saraswat.

"We have not done this with an eye on making a difference but we wanted a fresh change with the youth from Maharashtra leading the charge in this election. His victory will encourage more Marathi youth to take keener interest in politics and development of Maharashtra," says Saraswat, explaining why the MNS believes his entry will help MNS make deeper inroads in state's politics.

Explaining why Amit Thackeray would not only win the Mahim seat but also establish an honest bond with the voters of his constituency, Chetan Pednekar, chief organiser, Maharashtra Navnirman Vidyarthi Sena and a member of the core committee of the MNVS formed by Amit Thackeray says, "Amit has already stated that he will go to the voters with an honest intention and will work for their progress. Amit has said he is confident that the voters of his constituency will trust his honesty and elect him.

"We are not afraid of any two-time sitting MLA; we believe in our hard work and honesty. We will show the people of Maharashtra what the MNS is capable of when we come to power and Amit and other young MNS candidates who will win this election will have their task cut out," Pednekar says when asked if Amit Thackeray will find it tough to win against sitting Shiv Sena MLA Sada Sarvankar and how Amit alone can put life into his party.

"If you look at the average age of all our candidates, you will notice that their average age is between 35 and 40. It is a kind of revolution that the MNS is bringing in Maharashtra," Saraswat says emphasising how his party has focused on young, fresh faces to make its mark in this election.

Can Amit Win Mahim, and Revive MNS?

To establish himself as a mass leader, despite his several tours across Vidarbha, western Maharashtra and Marathwada in the last one year, Amit will have to first win the Mahim seat to prove his popularity among MNS's voter base.

Abhay Deshpande, a senior journalist from Maharashtra, believes Amit's entry could foster a new generation of leadership within the MNS, even if the electoral odds remain challenging. "Given the multi-cornered fights in most constituencies, I doubt the MNS will be able to win that many seats," he predicts.

However, he believes Amit's candidacy will help energise the MNS and attract younger voters. Deshpande also predicts that MNS could win up to three seats in the Mumbai metropolitan region, including that of Amit from Mahim, Raju Patil from Kalyan Rural (he was the lone MNS winner in 2019), and Bala Nandgaonkar from Sewree.

However, Deshpande notes that Amit, while dynamic, lacks Raj Thackeray's oratorical firepower, which is crucial to attract voters and win elections.

"Reviving the MNS's fortunes will be difficult for him. He isn't a fiery orator like Raj and is still new to politics. But Amit's candidacy sends a strong message that the MNS is making efforts to regain its relevance," Deshpande observes.

In the Mahim constituency, considered an MNS stronghold, Amit's candidacy could tip the scales, especially with the Shiv Sena's Sada Sarvankar's nomination uncertain. Sarvankar, who won the constituency in 2014 and 2019, may withdraw if Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction demands it.

A two-way contest between Amit Thackeray and Mahesh Sawant of the Shiv Sena (UBT) could pave the way for an MNS victory in Mahim, as Amit is expected to draw strong support from the MNS's loyal base of over 40,000 voters.

A former MNS functionary emphasises that "Mahesh Sawant is no pushover", but that Amit's chances would soar if Sarvankar steps down. "This is one of the constituencies where the MNS is organically very strong," he notes.

Despite the challenges, Amit's presence on the campaign trail may reinvigorate the party's base. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, he has been meeting young voters and visiting regions where Raj Thackeray's physical presence was limited.

As Deshpande points out, "It's only natural that the next generation of mass leaders in Maharashtra will follow in the footsteps of their illustrious fathers. Amit has the potential to become a mass leader because of his last name."

Looking ahead, MNS leaders are candid about the mistakes of the past. They recognise that success in the 2024 assembly elections will require a move away from identity politics to address pressing social issues directly.

"People want jobs, better infrastructure, and effective governance. If we don't offer solutions to these issues, we won't be able to win back the voters," admits the senior MNS functionary.

The 2024 elections may well determine whether Amit Thackeray can lead the MNS back to political relevance in Maharashtra. For the MNS, and Amit Thackeray, the stakes are high.