With eye on UP, Modi likely to reshuffle Cabinet by May 19

The rejig may take place before the assembly election results for Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, reveals Rajeev Sharma

Prime Minister Narendra Modi may reshuffle his council of ministers before the assembly election results for Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are announced on May 19, a week before the Modi government completes two years in office.

Given that he has problems galore, Modi won't like to stir the hornet's nest by having a major reshuffle and the big four portfolios of finance, home, defence and external affairs are unlikely to be touched.

In the current political environment, the prime minister can ill afford turbulence within the party by touching senior ministers like Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley in the reshuffle as and when it takes place.

While a Cabinet reshuffle is something that is predictably unpredictable, one rationale for holding this exercise before the assembly election results is to delink it from the latter.

As per this argument, Modi needs to rejig his Cabinet and marshal his political assets in such a way that he can maximise deliverance for the next three years.

An immediate and pressing consideration is that he needs to have the right mix of talent from Uttar Pradesh in his council of ministers to prepare for the all-important UP assembly polls due in just about nine months.

If the prime minister does not take the plunge now and reshuffle his Cabinet before the five assembly election results, the whole process may be delayed indefinitely, which may hurt the Bharatiya Janata Party from preparing well for the UP polls.

Though the states of Punjab and Uttarakhand are also due to go to the polls along with UP, obviously Uttar Pradesh matters the most, politically speaking.

In any case, why should the PM wait until after the assembly polls results for revamping his council of ministers? The BJP doesn't have major stakes in these states, except Assam where the party is seriously hopeful of coming into power for the first time.

But the poll dynamics changed substantially in the second and last round of elections in Assam, a state which has a 34 per cent Muslim population. The BJP is now not all that sure of its chances in Assam after the second phase of voting.

Reports and assessments garnered from ground zero in Assam are baffling.

As per these assessments, while the Muslim voters of Assam are said to have shifted towards the Congress after dumping Badruddin Ajmal and his All India United Democratic Front, Hindu votes have got divided. This is a scenario that benefits the Congress and is antithetical to the BJP's interests.

The worse case scenario for the BJP in the five assembly polls is this: The Congress retains Assam and Kerala and romps into power in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu riding piggyback on their bigger alliance partners -- the Left parties in West Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham in Tamil Nadu.

This is a nightmarish scenario for the BJP. And it is not improbable. So, the rationale is why keep the Cabinet reshuffle at the mercy of the outcome of the assembly polls, particularly where the BJP doesn't have huge stakes?

Why keep your political planning with respect to a crucial swing state like UP in abeyance for the sake of assembly polls?

Even if the BJP were to draw a blank in these assembly polls, it won't pose any serious crisis for the party. But losing UP next year will. The BJP performed spectacularly well in UP in the April-May 2014 general election when it won 71 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats on its own steam and pocketed two more seats on account of its pre-poll ally, the Apna Dal.

A repeat of Bihar in UP will definitely cause a huge dent to Modi's image and that's why he has to start preparing for the UP battle now; the sooner, the better.

Increasing UP's representation in the Union council of ministers is the best way to prepare to implement existing developmental projects for the state and unveil new projects.

After all, isn't it true that if you are failing to prepare you are preparing to fail?

Rajeev Sharma is an independent journalist and strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha