Will Shyam Saran succeed Narayanan as NSA?

In a major change in power equations in New Delhi, National Security Advisor M K Narayanan may be stepping down to give way to Shyam Saran, who is at present Prime Minister's special envoy for Climate Change.

According to a national daily, Narayanan is tipped to take over as Governor of either West Bengal or Maharashtra.

A high-level source in the government said Saran is the strongest contender to succeed Narayanan.

A former foreign secretary, Saran led the team that negotiated the Indo-US nuclear deal. His appointment will end the all-powerful Narayanan's tenure, which witnessed many important events of contemporary history.

After the 26/11 terror strikes on Mumbai, Narayanan had come under attack. The evident failure of security -- internal and external -- during the audacious attack by the terrorists had weakened his position.

However, he was always considered a Gandhi family "insider". It is believed that he enjoys the complete trust of Congress President Sonia Gandhi. It was to Narayanan's credit that he proved his immense usefulness to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh after his appointment as National Security Advisor. He succeeded J N Dixit.

Narayanan handled important boundary talks with China, supervised the complicated Indo-US nuclear deal and also, in a swift operation, won over Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav's support to the nuclear deal. The support had bewildered the Left parties.

But, NSA Narayanan came in confrontation with Home Minister P Chidambaram on serious issues of internal security after 26/11.

A senior intelligence officer once told rediff.com that during conferences, the tension between two was visible and that they were never on same page while handling policy issues. But nobody doubted Narayanan's skill for survival. He carried on after 26/11 and regained his turf even as Chidambaram marched ahead in his new job as Home Minister.

Recently, when Narayanan's trusted man and Chhattisgarh Governor ESL Narsimhan was made temporary in-charge of Andhra Pradesh as well to douse the Telangana fire, one believed that the NSA had won the round against Chidambaram.

But it seems that Dr Singh is taking a call to give Chidambaram complete freedom to revamp the internal security. It will not be a surprise if the prime minister gets an exclusive advisor on internal security on the Home Minister's advice.

Chidambaram and Dr Singh are working in tandem. Both have been teaming up to tilt the balance against the pulls and pressure within the Congress. The Telangana issue is one such example. On December 9, both agreed to the text of announcement, which stated that the Centre 'will initiate the process of forming the Telangana state'.

Meanwhile, it is possible that Narayanan may be leaving the powerful post of NSA as part of a larger game plan of the Prime Minister's Office and the Home Ministry to revamp the internal security establishment.

Former Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and former Ambassador to United States Ronen Sen's names are also in circulation for Narayanan's post.

A senior retired diplomat felt that 'Ronen Sen's clout and credibility in the current government is such that the NSA's post could be his any day."

However, it is believed that Ronen is unwilling to take up the job for health reasons.

Saran's appointment will bring in a professional diplomat, who does not have any experience of handling internal security (which was Narayanan's strength) and issue of terrorism. But on other side, Saran has the backing of more than three decades of experience in international affairs and has recently gained thorough understanding of issues related to climate change.

Whoever comes after Narayanan, one thing is for certain -- Prime Minister's Office will never be the same again.