Will Modi Achieve A Cease Fire In Ukraine?

Ukraine is currently in the middle of a strategic offensive into Russia's Kursk region.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will kick off his two-nation visit on Wednesday with the trip to Ukraine likely to see discussions over politics, trade, education, and humanitarian assistance, the ministry of external affairs has said.

Modi will embark on a two-day tour of Poland, followed by a visit to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv to hold talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The day-long visit to Ukraine will be the first ever by an Indian PM since formal diplomatic relations were established in 1992 and will hold geopolitical heft as Modi renews his call for dialogue and a non-military solution to the ongoing war, sources said. Ukraine is currently in the middle of a strategic offensive into Russia's Kursk region.

Modi's visit to Ukraine comes shortly after his visit to Russia in July. Back then, Zelenskyy had described the meeting as a 'huge disappointment'.

Meanwhile, Modi and Zelenskyy met a couple of months ago in June on the sidelines of the Group of Seven Summit in Italy. They had also met last year on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Japan.

Over the past two years, India has resisted Western pressure to discontinue crude oil purchases from its traditional partner, Russia.

Discounts on a steady stream of Russian crude have led to India's crude oil import bill shrinking by 15.9 per cent to $132.4 billion in 2023-2024, down from $157.5 billion in the previous year, even as import volumes remained the same.

India's trade with the embattled country has dwindled since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022. Trade had reached a high of $3.38 billion in 2021-2022.

At $2 billion, the vast majority of this trade comprised sunflower seed oil imports, which continue to be the largest import item from the nation.

India had previously relied on Ukraine, the world's largest traditional producer of cooking oil, for shipments.

However, the war forced the government to reach out to Russia, the second-largest producer of sunflower oil, as domestic edible oil prices had quickly climbed to historic highs in May-June 2022.

New Delhi sought a special carve-out or concessional rates for shipments after Russia placed quotas on the exports of sunflower oil.

As of FY24, Russia is the largest source of cooking oil for India.

Business ties with Poland

The visit to Poland marks the first visit by an Indian PM in 45 years, as the country becomes an important fulcrum of Indian trade and investment in the Central European region.

Poland is currently the sixth-largest economy in the European Union and will hold the next presidency of the Council of the EU.

Marking the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Poland, the visit will seek to increase Indian presence in a key European economy that is positioning itself as a low-cost manufacturing and logistics hub on the continent.

The talks are set to include greater defence cooperation, as well as more bilateral business ties in information technology, pharmaceutical, and automotive manufacturing, MEA officials said.

The country is already home to nearshoring operations of Indian information technology majors like Tata Consultancy Services, HCLTech, Infosys, and Wipro.

Manufacturing units of pharmaceutical company Ranbaxy, Berger Paints, and automotive and equipment manufacturer Escorts, among others, have also emerged in the past decade.

Officials said the country is keen to attract more Indian investments and has pitched itself as a technology-driven, yet cost-effective, manufacturing destination in Europe.

In February, telecommunications gear maker HFCL announced plans to set up a fibre optic cable plant in the country.

On the other hand, foreign direct investment from Poland is the 34th-largest among nations at $712 million.

On Monday, Secretary (West) Tanmaya Lal pointed out that nearly 30 Polish companies have a business presence in India.

India has a positive trade balance with Poland, bolstered by a diversified export basket.

In tandem, the number of Indian nationals in Poland has increased to 25,000.

This includes 5,000 students, many of whom chose to study in Poland after being evacuated from neighbouring Ukraine in 2022.

Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff.com