Will Jagan Reddy tie up with CPI-M in AP bypolls?

The Communist Party of India-Marxist's decision to fight the upcoming by-elections in Andhra Pradesh on its own has left the political arena in the state open. The CPI-M's decision has rattled the opposition Telugu Desam Party, which always saw a 'natural ally' in it.

B V Raghavulu, CPI-M's state secretary, had said a couple of days back that his party would not forge any alliance with the TDP during the forthcoming by elections. He also made it clear that the party would also not back any of the candidates fielded by the TDP.

TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu has stated that he would try and set things right and ensure that the two parties fight elections as allies. However, at the moment the CPI-M is no mood to buckle down and has stuck to its stand.

Meanwhile, this move has attracted YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy's attention, and he would try his best to enter into an alliance with the CPI-M.

However, contradictory remarks have been made by both the CPI-M and also the YSR Congress over the possibility of an alliance. While the CPI-M maintains that it would not enter into an alliance with any other party, the YSR Congress says that there have been some feelers which indicate that the CPI-M wants a tie up with them.

The forthcoming by-elections are very crucial for all the four major political parties in Andhra Pradesh: Congress, TDP, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YSR Congress Party.

For the YSR Congress it would be more important since this would be the first time that the power of Jagan Mohan Reddy will be tested in areas other than his hometown of Kadapa.

However, Telangana would be the biggest issue for Jagan Reddy. He has been accused of not taking a stand on the issue. He has also decided not to field any candidate from the Telangana area.

His strategy has always been very clear and that is to have a united Andhra Pradesh. His intention of wooing the voters from the Seema-Andhra region was very clear since day one.

However, Jagan would like to have his share in the Telangana region as well. An alliance with the TRS appears to be very unlikely at the moment. The TRS is confident that it could take a lead in Telangana and would not want any alliance as it does have the capacity to win the elections by itself. Moreover, they would not want to associate with Jagan at this moment since it would convey a wrong message to the voters of Telangana.

In such a scenario, Jagan would try his chances with the CPI-M which has a small share of support in the Telangana region. Moreover, the CPI-M also has fringe support bases in the tribal areas which constitute around 9 per cent of the vote share.

In addition to this Jagan would also wait and watch what the CPI would do to forge an alliance with them as well.

Forging alliances with both the CPI-M and CPI would go down well for Jagan Reddy as he would then manage to weaken the TDP which has relied on these two parties in the past. An alliance with the Left parties would also ensure that Reddy would have a role to play in the national level and he would not just be restricted to Andhra Pradesh. "It is a long term plan," said a member of the YSR Congress, adding, "and we are hopeful that it would work out."

This also shows the complete change in approach adopted by Jagan Reddy. It is clear that he is targeting only the TDP and not the Congress ever since a plethora of CBI cases fell on his head. He would not want to weaken the Congress at this moment and would instead try to edge out the TDP and become the major opposition in the state.

Meanwhile, Jagan Reddy's fight against the TDP would not only be on the election field or with alliances. It would also be legal. Jagan Reddy's legal team is already preparing the paper work to approach the Supreme Court against Naidu in the illegal assets case. In addition to this they would also lure more MLAs out of the TDP and ensure that the party is weakened to a great extent.

The YSR Congress party would have a meeting of its MLAs later on Tuesday in which the strategy would be chalked out to fight the upcoming elections. 17 MLAs and five MLCs would be part of this meeting.

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