Will China Vacate Depsang, Demchok?

If China is accommodating regarding Depsang and Demchok, a resolution of the Sino-India territorial dispute in Eastern Ladakh could be possible.

India's top diplomat, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, revealed on Monday that India and China had reached an arrangement for patrolling by both sides along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh.

Diplomatic and military negotiations have been ongoing since May 2020, when the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), intruded in large numbers into five areas traditionally claimed and patrolled by the Indian Army.

In fierce clashes between the two sides in the Galwan river valley in June 2020, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in action, while an indeterminate number of Chinese soldiers were also killed or injured.

In negotiations since then, the two sides claim to have resolved disagreements over the alignment of the LAC in three areas: Galwan Valley, Gogra-Hot Springs, and Pangong Lake area.

Misri's statement on Monday apparently pertains to Depsang and Demchok -- the remaining two areas where the PLA is in possession of Indian territory. These constitute the bulk of the disputed area.

If China is accommodating regarding Depsang and Demchok, a resolution of the Sino-India territorial dispute in Eastern Ladakh could be possible.

However, the Indian statement about a settlement in Depsang and Demchok has not been corroborated by officials from China's foreign ministry or its ministry of national defense.

Misri said that several rounds of diplomatic and military negotiations over the past few weeks have resulted in an agreement on 'patrolling arrangements along the LAC in the India-China border areas, leading to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that arose in these areas in 2020'.

This development comes ahead of Prime Minister Narendra D Modi's visit to Russia on Tuesday to attend the BRICS summit -- an acronym for a group of nations comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Although there has been no official announcement, Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping may talk bilaterally on the sidelines of the summit.

However, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, when asked in Beijing whether a meeting between Xi and Modi was likely, responded with a noncommittal, 'We will keep you posted if anything comes up'.

In the most recent developments in September 2022, Indian and Chinese troops staged a mutual withdrawal from the Gogra-Hot Springs area in Ladakh.

Even so, Chinese soldiers remained in possession of large swathes of Indian territory in the Depsang plains and Demchok in southern Ladakh.

China's possession of Indian territory in the Depsang area is particularly egregious.

First, this is the northernmost tip of India; second, the PLA has intruded most deeply into this sector, advancing as much as 15 kilometres into Indian-patrolled territory.

Indian generals, in their multiple rounds of talks with their Chinese counterparts, have demanded full disengagement from territory that India has held and patrolled for decades in Eastern Ladakh.

New Delhi maintains that a restoration of the pre-May 2020 status quo is essential for the restoration of peace and tranquillity.

In early October, Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi claimed that the two sides had plucked the 'low-hanging fruit' and now needed to address the more difficult situations.

There was 'positive signalling' from the diplomatic engagement, the general added, and that further progress depended on the military commanders of the two countries.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com